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I have been playing fantasy football for more than half my life and covering it for over a decade. However, I only started to dive deep into the NFL Draft in the last five or so years. Initially, the draft can seem super overwhelming. And that never seems to fully go away. The more and more you cover the draft, the more you learn that no matter how well you think you know what will happen, you are likely to be wrong.
That is not going to stop me from trying! After spending the last couple of months diving into this draft class, watching film, going over analytics, and paying close attention to the latest rumors, I think I have a solid grasp on how this may go. That is, of course, until one team does something no one saw coming and turns the draft on its head. There is always a pick or two that no one saw coming.
The best part is we are still a couple weeks out from the draft. We are just getting to the chaos time of year – where you will hear a bunch of rumors and smokescreens and have no idea what to believe. Don’t you just love the NFL Draft? In this mock, I will go pick by pick and put a fantasy spin on any offensive player. And if things get crazy enough, I just may have to come back and post an updated mock closer to the draft!
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Florio’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft
1: Carolina Panthers - C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
There has been more and more hype about the Panthers selecting a different quarterback here, but I just can’t shake the way the Panthers staff was with Stroud at the combine. I mean, Josh McCown was challenging him to a game of horse in Carolina! Stroud is the safest bet of the QBs in this class. All you have to do is watch his tape and you see precision passing and placement. There is not a throw he cannot make at the NFL level. There are some concerns, like how he can handle pressure at the next level, but overall, he is a very safe pick. For fantasy, I rank Stroud third of the rookie QBs, as he will run less, but he is right there with the others for real-life purposes. You can read my scouting report on Stroud and the other high end QB options here.
2: Houston Texans - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Bryce Young would likely be a lock to be the first pick if he was two inches taller and 15 pounds heavier. I am not saying I agree with the size concerns, but I think the league will at least a little bit. Young is an insane playmaker who can create time with his legs, while always keeping his eyes downfield. I have dubbed him the “Allen Iverson of football”.
Young put up great numbers in Alabama and showed that there is not a throw he cannot make. The only way I have seen his size be an issue is he drops back a little further in the pocket, but that’s all. I am not sure if the first defender to get through has ever actually touched him – not with that spin move he has. Young has a lot of fantasy upside, but it likely comes down to how much he runs at the pro level. For real-life purposes, this is a very strong pick for the Texans, who have found their franchise QB.
3: Indianapolis Colts (trade up with Arizona Cardinals) - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
I am not going to play NFL GM and tell you about the exact compensation for the Colts to move up one pick, but I am of the mindset it would cost at least this year's fourth overall pick and a first next season, maybe more. At that point I do not understand why you just wouldn’t try to trade for Lamar Jackson – but again, I am no NFL GM.
⭐️RAS score: 10.00
broke combine records with his jumping drills
From the moment Anthony Richardson steps onto a NFL field, it is not hyperbolic to say he is the most athletically gifted QB to ever play in the NFL.
It seems like common sense but I feel it’s worth stating. pic.twitter.com/hnin451urv
— JC (@JCJDynasty) April 6, 2023
Anthony Richardson provides a ton of upside. He would immediately join Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields as the best running quarterbacks in the league. All the tools are there. He has a cannon for an arm, a short memory that is needed to play QB at a high level, and is not afraid to put the ball into tight windows. He does need experience – which hopefully the Colts provide him plenty of right away.
There are some issues with his mechanics, but a good coaching staff could really help, and the Colts are a great fit after new head coach Shane Steichen worked with Hurts the last couple of seasons. Richardson is the top-rated rookie QB for fantasy purposes because of his rushing upside, but even in a real-life sense, he brings the most upside in this class.
4: Arizona Cardinals - Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
The Cardinals trading with the Colts would be an ideal move for them as well, as they get to gain capital and still get the player they would draft at three in Anderson. Anderson immediately gives the Cardinals a pass rusher that can help ease the loss of J.J. Watt. Arizona should bolster their defense while they wait for their franchise QB to return from injury.
5: Seattle Seahawks - Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
The Seahawks get one of the top pass rushers in the draft, while still having another first-round pick later in the draft. Seattle opts to go all in with their veteran head coach and QB, bolster their defense, and try to make another run in 2023.
6:Detroit Lions - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Lions made some splashes on defense in free agency, but there is a lot of work to be done to repair that unit. After trading 2020 No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah to the Falcons, the Lions grab a new corner early in the first. Witherspoon joins a revamped Lions secondary. This team is setting itself up for a run at the NFC North title.
7: Las Vegas Raiders - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Four QBs in the first seven picks? Yup. After seeing the first three go off the board the Raiders elect to grab their QB of the future and start the year behind Jimmy Garoppolo. I am not as high on Levis personally as the league may be. Sure, he has all the tools. He can throw the ball hard and far and make great pro-day throws in shorts. However, he is a one-read QB that does not have many plays that wow me when I watch his tape.
Will Levis has all the tools and traits to become an NFL superstar QB.
That’s what happens when you combine “ridiculous” arm talent with a “relentless work ethic.”
My story: https://t.co/DK4R6PlCpa pic.twitter.com/ovRD4EYuCm
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) April 13, 2023
Additionally, the case for Levis is usually loaded with reasons for his lack of big numbers. He had a new OC, lost some offensive lineman, and his number-one receiver (Wan’Dale Robinson) in his senior year. The tools are there, and a team can certainly convince themselves they can mold him into a great QB. And the Raiders certainly seem like a team that will convince themselves they’re the ones to do so.
8: Atlanta Falcons - Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
At the start of draft season, it looked like Jalen Carter could be the first overall pick of the draft. Some off-field concerns have led to him falling in the draft. The Falcons opt to go with the best player available and bolster their defensive line and keep Carter in Georgia. Their fans are already used to cheering for him and will get to continue to do so for a long time.
9: Chicago Bears - Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
This is late for the first offensive lineman, but a draft frontloaded with QBs and lots of high-end defensive talent led to that. The Bears' approach seems to be finding skill position players in free agency or trades and loading up on blue chippers in the draft. That is exactly what they do here. Justin Fields thanks them for the protection.
10: Philadelphia Eagles - Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
If Howie Roseman has shown anything, he is not afraid to build his lines through the draft. That is exactly what he does here as the Eagles bolster up their defense and try to make another run at the Super Bowl
11: Tennessee Titans - Paris Johnson Jr, OT, Ohio State
The Titans have a number of different ways they could go with this pick. They could go receiver or try to fill any of their number of holes on defense. However, they go with the massive Paris Johnson Jr. to lead their offensive line for years to come.
12: Houston Texans - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Texans get Bryce Young’s new number-one receiver with my top-ranked option, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN thrived in 2021, putting up better numbers than teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He is a precise route runner with good hands who can already perform at a very high level out of the slot and shown he can win against man, press, and will be an absolute zone destroyer at the next level. Plus, I am not fully convinced he cannot win out wide as well. He joins Nico Collins, John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz as Bryce Young’s weapons. You can read my scouting report on Smith-Njigba and the other top receivers here.
13: New York Jets - O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
The Jets are in a weird position for them. They have one of the better rosters in football and do not have any glaring needs. Well, except for QB – which we all fully expect them to have covered by the start of the season. They could opt to go defense here, to prepare them for some departures they will have as players hit free agency in the coming years. They are clearly in all-in mode, if/when they trade for Aaron Rodgers. So, they use this pick to get their new franchise QB more protection.
14: New England Patriots - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Most mocks have Christian Gonzalez going inside the Top 10 and I admit I may be very off base with this one. I just had a tough time finding a landing spot higher – but he certainly could go earlier especially if we do not see this many QBs go so early. Bill Belichick and his dog will not let Gonzalez slide past them. He can be the next great Patriots cornerback.
15: Green Bay Packers - Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
This is another pick where the player may not make it this far. Nolan Smith is a freak athlete who can give the Packers help as a pass rusher. While many, myself included, think they need to add receiver help – but ultimately, they opt to go with the best player available.
16: Washington Commanders - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Commanders have a recent history of having productive tight ends who cannot stay on the field. They opt to change that and bolster their offense by adding the best play-making tight end in the class. Kincaid along with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel
17: Pittsburgh Steelers - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Steelers are set on offense after making it their focus in recent drafts. They could go offensive line to protect Kenny Pickett, but I think they opt to address a declining defense this year. They take the athletic cornerback and allow him to play alongside and learn from veteran Patrick Peterson this season.
18: Detroit Lions - Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
After addressing their secondary in free agency and with their first pick in the draft, the Lions now opt to add up front to the defensive line. Adding an interior pass rusher like Kancey, to play along with Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions have an offense good enough to win their division, they just need the defense to improve to do so. Expect Detroit to heavily address that in the draft.
19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
A lot went wrong for the Bucs in Tom Brady’s last season but it largely was the fault of a declining offensive line that struggled when they were on the field. Broderick Jones can help to quickly fix that. The Bucs take the gift that fell to them and run.
20: Seattle Seahawks - Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Is this overkill after I have Seattle taking Tyree Wilson with their earlier pick? Perhaps. But Seattle greatly needs to be able to apply pressure on opposing QBs. They opt to do so by drafting two rookies who will revamp their defense for years to come.
21: Los Angeles Chargers - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Zay Flowers may not be the biggest receiver in the class, but he is lightning-fast and extremely twitchy after the catch. He can win both in the slot and out wide and get open at all three levels. Flowers is far from a perfect prospect, but he brings one of the highest ceilings in this class. The fact that he can play all over the field only helps to make the Chargers more unpredictable. Plus, he gives them such much-needed downfield speed. He would be an inconsistent bench option initially, as there is a lot of target competition in Los Angeles. The upside is higher than that. I comped Flowers to Lockett for a reason.
22: Baltimore Ravens - Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State
The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., which makes me think they will go in another direction than receiver in the first round. They opt to help what once was a dominant Ravens defense with Joey Porter Jr. His dad played for a division rival for years. It may take Baltimore fans a second to get used to rooting for Joey Porter, but ultimately, they will be happy with the pick to bolster their secondary.
23: Minnesota Vikings - Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Vikings need to get some help opposite of Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison is just the player to do so. He is a smooth route runner who has the ability to get open at all three levels. He can play both in the slot and outside, although I think he projects better as a number two at the NFL level than a number one. That is exactly what he will be asked to do in Minnesota. I compare Addison to DeVonta Smith, just with more size concerns. He would be more of a reserve pick initially in fantasy, but there is upside for him to put up WR3 production in this offense.
24: Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama
The Jaguars are loaded on offense and look to improve their defense as they try to defend their division title. Scouts rave about Branch’s smarts and toughness. He has the ability to be used in a number of different ways and packages.
25: New York Giants - Joe Tippman, OL, Wisconsin
The Giants bolster up the inside of their offensive line in the first round of the draft. After adding weapons during free agency and trades, they now turn their attention towards protecting Daniel Jones. Putting their franchise QB in the best possible situation is their largest goal after the money they invested in him. Expect this pick to be used to protect Jones.
26: Dallas Cowboys - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
I hate this pick for fantasy, but there was no way I could pass this up. Jerry Jones is always a wild card and there is no way I do not expect him to go full Jerry mode here. A couple of years ago he drafted CeeDee Lamb when the Cowboys were already set at receiver. I expect something similar here, even after franchise-tagging Tony Pollard. He is coming off a season-ending injury and Dallas is not invested in him beyond this year. Plus, you saw how successful the franchise was at marketing Ezekiel Elliott.
Bijan Robinson is the new guy. Plus, I’d argue it's smart to take a running back like this in the first round – as it gives you five years plus a franchise year before you even have to think about giving him a second contract. Robinson is a generational type of talent with great vision, good speed, and wiggle possessed by only a few humans. He is a home run hitter who has great hands and can be a consistent weapon in the passing game. The only issue is – he would have to share the backfield with Pollard. That takes both from being Top 10 running backs to more in the range of RB10 and 15. There is no way either would fall beyond that, even having to share the backfield.
27: Buffalo Bills - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Quentin Johnston is not a perfect prospect, but he may have the most upside of anyone in this class. The good is that he has the size to be a true X receiver and is still one of the best yards-after-catch receivers in the class. This is huge for the Bills, who had a league-low 39 percent of yards come after the catch last season. Johnston can also win downfield. However, he struggles to play up to his size and comes with drop issues. There are concerns, but his after-the-catch ability, paired with Gabe Davis’ downfield ability and Stefon Diggs route running gives the Bills a versatile receiving core. Plus, it's time they start building around Josh Allen and not the defense.
28: Cincinnati Bengals - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The focus for the Bengals for the last couple of seasons has been building an offensive line that can protect Joe Burrow. While the line played better last year, it crumbled as it dealt with injuries in the playoffs. Wright, paired with Orlando Brown, goes a long way to protecting the franchise QB. Plus, it allows them to move on from Jonah Williams
29: Trade: Washington Commanders (from New Orleans Saints) - Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
I was all set to give the Saints Michael Mayer here, the tight end out of Notre Dame. However, I do think a team will trade back into the first round to grab Hooker. Of the QB-needy teams, the Commanders are one that makes sense. They would have to give additional draft capital to the Saints.
Hooker is coming off a torn ACL that will basically cause him to redshirt his first year in the league. But if a team takes him at the end of the first round it would allow them to have the fifth-year option. This allows the Commanders a year to evaluate Sam Howell, before potentially turning over the franchise to Hooker. And if Howell plays great – it is a good problem to have. The Bucs and Vikings are other teams that I could see jumping back into the first to grab Hooker.
30: Philadelphia Eagles - Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
The Eagles' focus is building their defense back up to get them back to the Super Bowl. Their secondary is strong and now using two first-round picks to help up front will keep them as title contenders.
31: Kansas City Chiefs - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Jahmyr Gibbs is an extremely explosive running back that will be able to contribute both on the ground and in the passing game. The concern about him is size, as he weighed in at 199 pounds. There is a track record of success for running backs his size – they just have to have blazing speed. Luckily, Gibbs has plenty of that. He has elite footwork and vision; he has wiggle and can be explosive both in long speed but also in short-yardage situations. He often gets comped to Alvin Kamara, and if you watch him, you see why.
He is not as powerful, but more explosive than Kamara in my opinion. Gibbs can be exactly what the Chiefs envisioned Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be when they took him with the final pick of the first round a couple of years ago. We have seen the success Jerick McKinnon has had with the Chiefs. Gibbs could be used in a similar way, with more groundwork, but he is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball. If Gibbs were to end up in Kansas City, he would be an RB2 in drafts, but with weekly RB1 upside. He would split ground work with Isiah Pacheco and be a weapon for Patrick Mahomes in the passing game. This is a dream scenario and one I think we easily could see happen.
What do you think I got right? What do you think I swung and missed? Let me know on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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