Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2023 The PLAYERS

Kurt Kitayama found himself at the front end of the pack on Sunday, yet again, with his last two memories of such a circumstance resulting in a runner up finish at the CJ Cup and a blow up at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago. Gary Player said "The more you practice, the luckier you get" and Kurt has been practicing finding himself at the top of the leaderboard to get just lucky enough to win his first PGA Tour event on the back of some sensational golf that saw him as a very fitting winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

I mention the word luck, as the likelihood of him winning an event that he made a final-round triple in, with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton, and Patrick Cantlay all finishing T4 or better, required a few fortunate blunders from these superstars. These elevated events sure have produced some phenomenal story lines.

But before we do that, for those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Outrights

If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord.

We have another elevated event this week, which means its a field full of superstars and as it is the PLAYERS we have a few futures part of our card. Lets meet this week's winners.

Collin Morikawa ($5.09 @ +2800 on FanDuel)

Collin Morikawa is a theoretical perfect fit for this venue, possessing a beautiful blend of accuracy off the tee with some of the worlds best irons. It is a ball striker's golf course and Collin enters the week with the 8th best ball striking numbers over the last 24 rounds. Over a longer baseline, he is the best approach player when weighting approach proximities to align with the percentage of approach shots from each respective yardage range this week.

His accuracy off the tee is also one of the best in the field and if he can stamp out four rounds of premium ball striking that we have grown accustomed to, he should find himself right at the top of the leaderboard. The difference maker this week will be his putter and short game. If the putter gets hot like we have seen at the Tournament of Champions, he should find himself with a six-shot lead on the back nine of the final round. He is a baller, shot caller, who just needs a little butter on the putter.

Tony Finau ($5.09 @ +2800 on FanDuel +4600 futures market)

Tony Finau is essentially a replica of Collin Morikawa from a statistical perspective. He ranks as the sixth best ball striker over the last two-dozen rounds while his short game sits outside the top-50 over that same period. Finau finds himself ranking inside the top-20 for weighted approach proximities (14th), strokes gained off the tee on courses shorter than 7,200 yards (16th), and plays medium difficulty courses really well (15th).

His course history here is rather disappointing for somebody who dodges bogeys like he is in the matrix (7th) and dominates Par 5s (9th). If the theoretical upside Tony Possesses finally shows up to TPC Sawgrass, call the fire department, because he is going to set that place on fire.

Tom Kim ($3.56 @ +4500 Caesars +4000 futures market)

I copied this from the futures section of my article: "After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright, and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far."

Update, there is better than 40-1, as Tom has not necessarily played his best golf on some of the longer, more driver-heavy venues we have played leading up to this event. However, it has been his putter that has let him down most, maybe feeling the pressure to make more putts than usual to compensate for his lack of distance off the tee. This week, that pressure should be released, as he has the accuracy required to dismantle a course like this if his approach play shines like we have seen in the past. All aboard!!!

Keegan Bradley ($2.16 @ +6600 PointsBet)

Who likes to boogie? Keegan Bradley likes to Boogie, particularly at a course that has strong predictive correlations based off past success here. Bradley enters the week with a T5, T29, T16, and T7 in his last four PLAYERS. Bradley has typically been one of those steady ball strikers who has not managed to get hot with the putter at the right time. Excluding the Sony Open, Bradley has gained both off the tee and on approach in all eight other events he has played in this season.

Having gained over 1.5 strokes putting in three of his last four starts, his putter has had three tall glasses of the good stuff, and presumably wants to show what its capable of on one of golf's biggest dance floors. If that confidence with the putter spills over onto the greens of TPC Sawgrass, with this course history and recent form, Keegan has all the moves to moonwalk his way to victory this week.

Tom Hoge ($1.14 @ +12500 BetRivers enhanced odds tab)

Tom Hoge is one of these golfers who can be frustrating to bet on as his short game can often lead to an early departure from any given event. However, at 125-1, it was tough to pass up on a golfer who enters the week with the 8th-best approach numbers over the last 24 rounds, while grading out as the 2nd best approach player in the field over the last season and a half.

Hoge has not missed a cut in his four starts at the PLAYERS, with three of them being finishes of T33 or better. He is evidently comfortable around this track and if his irons pop, which they have been doing quite often lately, we could see him as one of the long shots inside the top-5 going into Sunday, with hopes that his putter gains on the greens as it has done 75% of the time around TPC Sawgrass. 

 

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Placings

We were a Tommy Fleetwood T40 (T61) away from being profitable on the week, gaining six strokes tee-to-green, while losing just shy of 4.5 strokes on the greens ... yuck. However, we are limiting our loses and waiting for a big week, which has to be around the corner. We keep on plugging away after losing $4.50 in the placement market last week.

• Patrick Cantlay +110 T20 $5.5
• Tommy Fleetwood +100 T40 -$5
• Keegan Bradley -110 T40 $5
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +175 T40 -$5
• Seamus Power -105 T40 -$5

This week's bets:

• Tom Kim T40 -115
• Tom Hoge T40 +138
• Russell Henley T40 +120
• Chris Kirk T40 +120
• Adam Hadwin T40 +160

Matchups

My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. This week we have one matchup that we rather like. Collin Morikawa should provide a much higher floor at an event like this, than Rickie Fowler, who has seen three impressive putting performances keep him in the mix over his last four starts. Collin's baseline statistics are what gives us an edge here, at a reasonable number when considering that Collin is ranked 11th in the world and Rickie 70th.

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

 

The Farewell Fiver

Hole in One on 17 +318 (FanDuel Boost)

We are still not betting the full $100 of our budget until we see a turnaround in results, which we will most likely do next week. Keegan Bradley managed to surge up the leaderboard last Sunday to give us our first Farewell Fiver winner. His T10 at +550 was split three ways, but we will take it!!!

This week our Farewell Fiver is an absolute degenerate bet, placed purely for entertainment value, which is also part of the reason we bet on golf. FanDuel has a boost for a Hole in One on 17 which was enough to sucker us into getting EVEN MORE excited they show a shot on 17 this week. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

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