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Joe Nicely breaks down 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 17 of the NFL season. Fantasy football updates, notes, and analysis for Week 17 - January 1, 2023.
Happy New Year, RotoBallers! As we head into 2023, we have a full slate of games on tap for Week 17 of the NFL season. With the vast majority of leagues holding their championship finals this week, every decision matters for fantasy managers.
The NFL – and fantasy football -– is a game of constantly moving parts, and just when you think you know everything, things can change.
In the interest of keeping fantasy GMs up to date and informed, I'll be putting some interesting nuggets in one convenient place. This info might be in the form of stats, trends, or injury news, but it's info that I believe can help fantasy managers win their matchups this week. Without further delay, here are 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 17.
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#1. Hurts Still Hurting
Jalen Hurts - the man at the helm of what's been perhaps the NFL's most impressive team - is considered extremely doubtful for the Philadelphia Eagles Week 17 date with the New Orleans Saints.
Hurts did get in a couple of limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday, but it appears as though the Eagles will play the long game with their MVP candidate and give Hurts at least one more week of rest with an eye on the postseason.
Gardner Minshew impressed in relief of Hurts last week, throwing for 355 yards and two TDs while also running for a score against Dallas. While fantasy managers would obviously rather have Hurts available to them in their league championship matches, Minshew has demonstrated fantasy viability and is once again a rock-solid substitute.
#2. Home Sweet Home
After a surprisingly-brutal beatdown in Carolina last week, Dan Campbell's Lions return home to the friendly confines of Ford Field licking their wounds. If Detroit's 2022 home/road splits are any indicator, we should see the resilient bunch rebound nicely against the Chicago Bears in Week 17.
Jared Goff and company are averaging a whopping 32.1 points per game in the cushy confines of Ford Field, while their output on the road - just 19.3 points per game - has been a sharp contrast to that high level of production in Detroit.
It doesn't hurt that the Lions draw a smash spot against a pitiful Chicago Bears defense that's been decimated by injuries and midseason trades. The Bears rank dead last in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA and have been routinely whipped in every facet of the game.
#3. The Terminator
It's been all James "Don't Call Me John" Conner, all the time for the ailing Cardinals. With Kyler Murray done for the year and the organization seemingly at a crossroads, Arizona has had little choice but to lean on their RB1 over recent weeks.
The usage has been ridiculous. Since Week 10, Conner has garnered a crazy 92% snap share, the highest in the NFL for a running back by a wide margin, and he's averaged a massive 21.7 touches over Arizona's last six.
While it appeared as though Colt McCoy would return to the lineup earlier in the week, McCoy has officially been ruled out with David Blough now expected to get the start in Week 17. As a result, we can expect Arizona's run-heavy approach to continue against an Atlanta Falcons squad that's struggled against the run. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards (1,612) in the NFL to the RB position this season.
#4. Can Jets Liftoff In White's Return?
With Zach Wilson booed into oblivion by New York's home crowd last Thursday night, Mike White will return to the lineup for this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. White has been on the shelf for two weeks with a rib injury but should be all systems go for Week 17.
He provided a noticeable spark for a sluggish Jets offense during his earlier stint at the helm this year, passing for 952 yards and three TDs across his three starts. White will have a good chance to resume his success against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17. Seattle rates just 21st in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and have allowed opposing QBs to throw 22 TDs this season.
From a fantasy perspective, Garrett Wilson's managers are likely rejoicing, as the dynamic rookie has been elite with anyone but Zach Wilson playing QB for the Jets. In his two full games with White at the helm in Weeks 11 & 12, Wilson combined for 257 receiving yards and two TDs.
#5. Disaster In Denver
It's been the stuff of nightmare fuel in the Mile High City this season, but the organization did at least go ahead and give the Old Yeller treatment to first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett last week, putting an end to the pain and suffering by firing Hackett after an embarrassing 51-14 loss to the L.A. Rams on Christmas Day.
With or without Hackett calling the shots, we likely won't see much difference out of the Broncos this week, as they will still have the underwhelming Russell Wilson at the helm against the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs. Wilson is another financial albatross that the Denver front office will be forced to deal with at some point and their offseason acquisition of the former Seahawks QB, which cost the Broncos a boatload of draft picks, is currently shaping up as one of the worst trades in NFL history.
#6. Wentz In Washington
Taylor Heinicke entered the Washington Commanders lineup in place of an injured Carson Wentz in Week 7 and provided a serious spark for the team. Heinicke led Washington to wins in five of their next six, which forced head coach Ron Rivera to keep Wentz sidelined for an extended period of time.
Now winless in their last three and failing to score more than 20 points in over a month, the Commanders - who are still desperately clinging to a wild-card playoff spot - will go back to Wentz in a must-win Week 17 game against the Cleveland Browns.
While most of the attention will be focused on Wentz and his return to the starting lineup, the Commanders will most likely lean on the ground game against a run-funnel Browns defense, while trying to use Wentz in a game-manager capacity. It's a terrific spot for rookie RB Brian Robinson, who has rushed for 348 yards over Washington's last four. Robinson will have true bell-cow duties with fellow running back Antonio Gibson ruled out for this one. Cleveland is allowing a massive 5.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs, which is the third-highest average in the NFL this year.
#7. Deja Vu All Over Again: Rodgers and Packers Won't Go Away
No matter how bad the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers have looked this season, this team just refuses to die. Green Bay entered Week 13 with a 4-8 record and didn't seem that far away from shutting Rodgers - who has played with a broken thumb since Week 5 - down in favor of backup QB Jordan Love.
However, through all the trials and tribulations, the Packers have now won three straight and head into a Week 17 clash against the divisional-rival Minnesota Vikings with a legitimate chance of making the playoffs if they win out.
If this all seems familiar, it's because it is. During his illustrious career, Rodgers has come back from the dead more times than Michael Myers. He's led the Packers to the NFL playoffs six different times when the team had a .500 or worse record in October or later. The 2021 MVP and company will try to make it seven when they host a Vikings squad that's allowed the league's most passing yards at Lambeau Field this week.
#8. Justin Jefferson Keeps Making History
While the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers and company are trying to make the playoffs in Week 17, Justin Jefferson is trying to make history. Jefferson isn't going to win the NFL MVP award this year but perhaps he should.
He has already shattered several of Minnesota's single-season franchise receiving records, including cruising past Randy Moss for most receiving yards in a season and Cris Carter's mark for most receptions in a season by a Viking.
Currently sitting on 1,756 receiving yards, the 23-year-old needs 208 receiving yards over Minnesota's last two games to break Calvin Johnson's all-time single-season NFL record of 1,964 receiving yards, something that's very realistic for a player that's recorded over 100 receiving yards in 10 of the Vikes' 16 games this year.
The single-season record of 149 receptions held by Michael Thomas would be difficult to reach, as Jefferson would need 26 catches over the next two weeks to get there, but the LSU alum has regularly logged video game-like numbers this year.
With Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander referring to Jefferson's 9/184/2 performance against the Packers in Week 1 as "a fluke", the Minnesota superstar will be motivated by more than just history this week.
#9. Somebody's Gotta Win The NFC South - Part III: Sweet Chaos
In the brief lifespan of this article, the NFC South has quickly become our first running joke. The chaos is absolutely beautiful. So, let's check in on the standings of the NFL's worst division. Hint: It's glorious...
#10. Championship Week
For many fantasy managers, the entire 2022 season comes down to this. Championship week.
The majority of leagues hold their championship matches in Week 17 in an effort to avoid the very real possibility that many teams are resting starters in the last week of the regular season. Outside of unlucky Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard managers, it, thankfully, appears that almost every notable fantasy player will be a full go this week with the exception of Las Vegas Raiders' QB Derek Carr.
While I always like to note that fantasy football is just a game, I know it is more than that to many and can feel like life or death to a select few, so let me give a small piece of advice if I may...be bold in your decision making this week.
Today's worry won't ease tomorrow's pain. You likely have a few agonizing decisions to make ahead of your championship game, but I bet if you take a couple of minutes and a few deep breaths, you know what you want to do deep down in your heart. Go with it. Do that, and I promise the outcome will be so much sweeter if you win and even a little less painful if you lose.
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