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Joe Nicely breaks down 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 15 of the NFL season. Fantasy football updates, notes, and analysis for Week 15 - December 18th, 2022.
As we head into Week 15 of the NFL season with most fantasy league playoffs underway, every decision matters for fantasy managers.
The NFL - and fantasy football - is a game of constantly moving parts, and just when you think you know everything, things can change.
In the interest of keeping fantasy GMs up to date and informed, I'll be putting some interesting nuggets in one convenient place. This info might be in the form of stats, trends, or injury news, but it's info that I believe can help fantasy managers win their matchups this week. Without further delay, here are 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 15.
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#1. Welcome Back, Zach
Well, maybe it's not so welcome...but Zach Wilson will nonetheless return to the New York Jets starting lineup after Mike White couldn't get medical clearance to suit up in Week 15. To say Wilson is a downgrade for this Jets offense is putting it politely.
New York failed to top 17 points in Wilson's last four starts before his Week 12 benching in favor of White. Wilson has thrown for less than 250 yards in five of his seven 2022 starts and his reinsertion into the lineup is a huge downgrade for all Jets skill position players, especially white-hot rookie receiver Garrett Wilson.
The "High Flying Jets" were fun while they lasted, but we can expect New York to return to an ultra-conservative offensive approach this week against the Detroit Lions.
#2. Brand New Lions
Speaking of the Detroit Lions, Dan Campbell's surging squad heads to the Big Apple having won five of their last six and two straight.
Though they face a tough New York Jets defense this week, the Lions have been rolling up some impressive numbers on offense. Detroit has scored 25 or more points in six consecutive games and ranks fifth in the NFL in both points per game (26.8) and total yards per game (385.8).
While many pegged Jared Goff as a "bridge" quarterback for the Lions, the organization has publicly stated that they don't view him as such. He's having a terrific year. Goff has tossed 22 TDs to just seven picks and has completed 65.3% of his pass attempts for 3,352 passing yards. The former Rams QB currently stands as the overall fantasy QB12.
#3. Now I Remember...Trevor Lawrence Is Good
The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence has finally started looking the part. Lawrence has been sizzling over the past month and has topped 20 fantasy points in three of Jacksonville's last four. Most recently, the Clemson product threw for a career-high 368 yards and three TDs in a Week 14 win over the Tennessee Titans.
Lawrence is reminding football fans why he was considered a generational type of QB coming out of Clemson. After a lost rookie year spent toiling away in Jacksonville's Urban Meyer debacle, Lawrence has finally found his groove under the tutelage of new Jags HC Doug Pederson.
While the good times will likely continue for years with Lawrence, he faces a big potential speed bump this Sunday, as a brutal matchup against the Dallas Cowboys awaits in Week 15. Dallas is ranked first in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and has relinquished the league's third-fewest passing yards.
#4. Rock Bottom In Mile High
To say Russell Wilson's first year with the Denver Broncos has been disappointing would be a massive understatement. The Broncos currently sport a pitiful 3-10 record, while Wilson is on pace for career lows in completion percentage, passing yards, and TDs.
As if things weren't already bad enough in the Mile High City, the veteran QB suffered a disturbing head injury against Kansas City in Week 14 and has been ruled out for this week's date with the Arizona Cardinals.
First-year Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett has looked in over his head regularly this year and could well be a "one and done" candidate if this squad doesn't show some late-season signs of life. Denver ranks dead last in the NFL in average points per game - a paltry 14.9 - and grades out 30th in the league in Total Offense DVOA.
#5. Kyler Out. Keim Out. Kliff Next?
It's poetic that the aforementioned Denver Broncos will square off against the Arizona Cardinals this week, as the two franchises have experienced similarly disappointing seasons.
After signing Kyler Murray to a huge extension during the offseason, the Cardinals' offense has looked lifeless with Murray at the helm and ranks just 30th in the league in Total Offense DVOA. Struggling through his worst season as a pro, Murray has battled injuries throughout 2022, missing two games prior to suffering a season-ending torn ACL in a Week 14 loss to the New England Patriots.
Cards' HC Kliff Kingsbury's seat has felt hot for a couple of years now. While a playoff appearance last year stayed his execution date, the supposed offensive genius once again has the look of a man that's on borrowed time. With much-maligned Arizona GM Steve Keim taking a health-related leave of absence earlier this week, there's a real sinking ship vibe surrounding this organization.
#6. Chargers Starting To Spark
It's been an injury-plagued 2022 for the Los Angeles Chargers, but it appears as though the Chargers are getting healthy at just the right time. With his receiving corps finally getting healthy, Justin Herbert has now thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games.
Prior to last week's win over the Miami Dolphins, the dynamic duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams had played a total of just 46 snaps together this season. Both looked good last week, as Williams reeled in six catches for 116 yards and a score, while Allen was targeted 14 times for the second consecutive game.
This pass-happy L.A. offense will be in heaven this week against the NFL's most glaring pass-funnel defense - the Tennessee Titans. The Titans grade out No. 1 in Rush Defense DVOA but have been consistently shredded through the air. Tennessee has yielded the league's second-most passing yards (3,906) and passing TDs (25).
#7. So Good It Hurts
I'm running out of superlatives to describe how well Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles are performing this season. Hurts and the Eagles continued to dominate last week with a victory over the New York Giants in which the MVP candidate tossed two TDs and ran for another. Hurts now has a rushing TD in four of Philly's last five and is the No. 1 scoring player in all of fantasy in 2022.
The good times should continue to roll in Week 15, against a Chicago Bears team that has been pitiful on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA, while standing 31st in Pass Defense DVOA. This profiles as another smash spot for Hurts, Sanders, Brown, and the gang.
#8. So Bad It Hurts
The Houston Texans' run defense is bad. Not bad like they've allowed a couple of good games to opposing running backs. Not bad like they've given up some 100-yard rushing performances. No, I mean really bad.
Houston has been gashed on the ground this year. The unit ranks 32nd in the 32-team NFL in rushing yards per game allowed (165.8), total rushing yards allowed (1,835), and rushing TDs allowed (16) to the RB position. There might be some rush-defense statistics that I missed, but just assume that the Texans rank last in those as well.
Isiah Pacheco hits the running-back lottery this week, as he's set to square off against this lowly Houston unit. The rookie has solidified himself as Kansas City's true lead back in recent weeks. Pacheco has garnered at least 15 touches in five straight games and will have every opportunity to print fantasy points in Week 15.
#9. Somebody's Gotta Win The NFC South. Unfortunately.
Ah yes...the NFC South. The division that the NFL would rather you didn't talk about. The division that fantasy managers want to forget exists. The division that Tampa Bay is currently leading with a 6-7 record. The division that somebody's gotta win. Unfortunately.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) - The Tom Brady-led Bucs have failed to ignite this year and a Week 15 matchup against the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals is an unlikely spot to turn things around.
- Carolina Panthers (5-8) - Believe it or not, the team that fired their coach midseason is perhaps the hottest squad in the division. Baker Mayfield's exit has certainly been addition by subtraction for Carolina, but it's tough to give new Panthers' starting QB Sam Darnold much credit for the team's two-game winning streak, as he's averaging 142 passing yards per game over the last two weeks. We can chalk up Carolina's wins to surprisingly-solid defensive play and a run-heavy scheme that's made both D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard viable fantasy options.
- Atlanta Falcons (5-8) - With Marcus Mariota sent packing to the IR, Atlanta spent their Week 14 bye getting rookie QB Desmond Ridder ready to make his first regular-season start in Week 15 against New Orleans. He likely can't do less than Mariota did for a Falcons offense that ranks 31st in the NFL in passing play percentage thanks to putting the ball in the air just 43.97% of the time. Though Kyle Pitts has already been lost for the season, perhaps Ridder can unlock his fellow rookie, talented WR Drake London.
- New Orleans Saints (4-9) - I can't wrap my head around what's going on in New Orleans. A team with Andy freakin' Dalton at quarterback has decided to completely ignore Alvin Kamara. Since Week 10, Kamara has garnered 58 total opportunities in this New Orleans offense, which ranks him just below *checks notes* Cam Akers?#MakeItMakeSense...The Saints might not have a choice but to utilize Kamara this week against Atlanta, as backup RB Mark Ingram suffered a season-ending injury last week and the Saints have been forced to activate the corpse of David Johnson for Week 15.
#10. Playoffs?!?
Playoffs? Playoffs? Are you kiddin' me? I just hope we can win a game.
-Jim Mora
With most fantasy leagues starting their playoffs this week, the tension is high for lots of fantasy GMs at the moment. Toss in the looming holidays and many folks are on the full-blown Stress Express right now. I'm well aware of how much you want to win your matchup this week and how competitive things can get in this crazy game we all love. While it's a cliche, try to keep in mind that it is just that...a game. Good luck this week!
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