RADIO
We were on the Tua-Tyreek-Waddle stuff last week, along with Rams and Commanders stacks, but hits also come with misses. Denver looks somewhat inept offensively, Deebo didn’t get there, and Mitch Trubisky is on the brink of getting benched for Kenny Pickett (or at least he should be).
What does Week 3 have in store for us? Six games boast a Vegas total at or above 48 points, meaning offensive fireworks could be plentiful. Could any of those games “fail” from a points-scored and play-volume standpoint? Possibly, but some of them are such great matchups for fantasy purposes, that you have to have pieces of said games in order to contend.
**Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back & possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.**
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Jalen Hurts ($7600) + A.J. Brown ($7300) AND/OR DeVonta Smith ($5200), Dallas Goedert ($4700)
Through two weeks, the Washington Commanders have been fairly stingy against opposing fantasy QBs; Ron Rivera’s club has yielded a 57.9% completion percentage, an average of 247 passing yards per game, and just two total rushing yards. Sunday’s meeting with Jalen Hurts is a far cry from pocket statue Jared Goff and quintessential pocket passer Trevor Lawrence – Washington’s first two QB matchups.
Hurts ranks 10th overall in the league in rushing yards thus far, and he leads Lamar Jackson at his position by 11 yards. Philly’s signal-caller is averaging 14 totes per contest during the early going, something the Commanders might not have any sort of command over; Washington is the only team in football allowing over seven yards per carry (7.5). They’re also bottom five in rushing yards allowed.
Sunday’s NFC East matchup features talented skill-position players on both sides, and that is evidenced by its 50-point total (one of four games with that distinction in Week 3). Through two games, A.J. Brown has easily (and unsurprisingly) supplanted DeVonta Smith as Philly’s No. 1 receiver, sporting impressive target-share (35.0%) and air yards-share figures (47.1%), which rank second and first respectively in 2022.
In a projected shootout with Washington’s upstart offense, Brown will be looked to early and often by Hurts. Don’t count out Smith and Goedert, who both came alive in Week 2 with 80+ receiving yards apiece after playing second fiddle to AJB in the opener. At these price points on DraftKings, stacking Brown and one of these two with Hurts is certainly viable if this game turns into a back-and-forth affair.
Preferred bring-back: Curtis Samuel ($5100)
Leverage piece: Miles Sanders ($5500)
Handling 13 and 17 carries over the season’s first two weeks, Miles Sanders is the clear lead back within Nick Sirianni’s offense. And the aforementioned rushing efficiency that teams have experienced against Washington to this point should make Sanders enthusiasts’ ears perk up. He’s cheap, explosive, in a strong game environment, and facing a team that can’t stop the run. You do the math.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Kirk Cousins ($7600) + Justin Jefferson ($9500) AND/OR Adam Thielen ($6000), K.J. Osborn ($5500), Irv Smith Jr. ($5000)
Touchdowns are paramount on FanDuel, and no game is expected to see more touchdowns this week than Lions-Vikings. With a total of 53, and Minnesota favored by seven points, bookmakers are expecting great offensive success for Kevin O’Connell’s team – and rightfully so.
Only the Ravens and Texans have served up more total yards than Detroit, and only the Cardinals have allowed more points per game than the Lions (32.5). Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz each had solid to great outings against Dan Campbell’s defense, so expect more of the same from Kirk Cousins here.
Though he underwhelmed on Monday Night Football against Darius Slay, Justin Jefferson’s volume did not take a step back, as he drew another 12 targets. Detroit has no one that can contain him on the backend, so the $9500 price tag is worth paying in this matchup. However, I’m a bit more intrigued with some of the ancillary pieces on the Vikings.
Irv Smith Jr. might be my favorite low-priced tight end on this weekend’s slate. He more than doubled his snap share from Week 1 to Week 2 (27.6% to 56.9%), and he drew eight targets against Philly, ranking second on the team. Jefferson should draw a huge ownership percentage on Sunday, so fading him in favor of a different Viking could be worth the gamble.
K.J. Osborn is another option, although his ceiling is limited; he’s topped 80 receiving yards just twice in 28 career games. Adam Thielen, now 32 years old, doesn’t look like the dominant fantasy asset he once was. On the bright side, he does have three red-zone targets in 2022. Just something to keep in mind.
Preferred bring-back: D'Andre Swift ($8000)
Leverage piece: Dalvin Cook ($8300)
The quickest way to leverage the field in this game would be rostering Minnesota’s workhorse running back against a run defense that ranks bottom seven in both total rushing yards allowed and yards per carry allowed. Detroit is also leading the league in rushing TDs served up with five thus far.
There’s been a drastic shift in philosophy in 2022 for the Vikings offensively. The 2020 and 2021 iterations of this offense finished eighth and 16th respectively in total rushing attempts. Through two games, Kevin O’Connell’s team ranks 28th in rushing attempts per contest at 19.5. On the flip side of that shift in philosophy, Cook’s involvement in the passing game has been more prominent (5.5 targets per game).
Cook has underwhelmed to this point, posting PPR RB20 and RB37 finishes in two weeks. His heightened receiving role makes him game-script independent, so no matter whether Minnesota is ahead or behind, he will remain involved. Against an exploitable rush defense in Detroit, at home, as a heavily favored running back, Cook needs more hype for Week 2. (But I won’t say that too loud so us sharp people can get him at low ownership.)
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Joe Burrow ($6600) + Ja'Marr Chase ($8100) AND/OR Tee Higgins ($6100)
What is wrong with the Bengals? Their offensive line was supposed to be much improved, but that notion has not played out through two games. Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times, outpacing the No. 2 Saints in that category by three. Cincy is 0-2 after their surprising Super Bowl run last year, but is there a reason for optimism?
Well, they travel to the Jets in Week 3, a team that could also easily be 0-2 had it not been for Cleveland’s missteps last weekend. New York has been relatively respectable in the yards allowed departments (just 216.0 passing and 123.5 rushing yards allowed per game), but opponents are finding ways to score points; Robert Saleh’s team ranks eighth in points per game allowed (27.0).
Amari Cooper (9-101-1), Devin Duvernay (4-54-2), and Rashod Bateman (2-59-1) have all given the Jets’ secondary some problems in the early going. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both better than the aforementioned trio of receivers, so it could be a long day for New York’s defense on Sunday. Only the Ravens, Rams, and Falcons have surrendered more TDs to the WR position thus far than New York’s four.
Preferred bring-back: Elijah Moore ($5000)
Leverage piece: Hayden Hurst ($3900)
Though he popped up on the injury report with a groin injury this week, Hayden Hurst’s usage within Zac Taylor’s offense has been phenomenal; he ranks second at the position in routes run, fourth in route participation, fifth in red-zone targets, and sixth in targets (Player Profiler).
It’s a new year, but in 2021, only three teams coughed up more receiving yards to tight ends than the Jets. New York allowed 15.4 tight end points per game. Hurst is cheap, stays on the field for most of the team’s passing plays, and would make for good leverage off of his stud receiver teammates.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Tua Tagovailoa ($7300) + Tyreek Hill ($8400) AND/OR Jaylen Waddle ($7500)
I will admit that I did not think Tua could support both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle ceiling games on any given week. As we all saw in Week 2, that notion can be dispelled. The dynamic Miami speedsters each posted 11 catches and two touchdowns en route to a 42-38 win over the Ravens.
Now Mike McDaniel’s team is hosting perhaps the league’s best offense in the Buffalo Bills. According to Establish The Run’s PROE metric (pass rate over expectation), Buffalo and Miami rank top three in the league, and they are each throwing 9.2% or higher over their expected rate. That spells out fantasy goodness, as we witnessed last week.
Only Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson have higher average yards per attempt figures than both Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen (they’re tied at 8.9). Both offenses love to push the ball down the field, and with Gabriel Davis back for the Bills, we can expect that trend to be on full display throughout Sunday’s matchup.
Preferred bring-back: Gabriel Davis ($7200)
Leverage piece: Mike Gesicki ($5400)
Preseason reports of more blocking and less route running have completely deflated any fantasy hopes for tight end Mike Gesicki. However, the former Penn State Nittany Lion made a box-score impact in last week’s game, tallying four catches for 41 yards and a score. Perhaps more importantly, his underlying metrics were much better, as he more than doubled his routes run from Week 1 to Week 2 (from 13 to 28) and caught all four of his targets, two of which came in the red zone.
Supporting cast members were sure to accumulate some stats in last week’s barnburner between the Dolphins and Ravens, but Miami’s game this week profiles similarly, and McDaniel could use Buffalo’s heightened attention on the Dolphins’ outstanding receivers to his advantage by involving Gesicki more. He’s also a weapon in the red zone, as he has been his whole career.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Joe Flacco ($5300) + Elijah Moore ($5000) AND/OR Garrett Wilson ($5400), Tyler Conklin ($3800)
The Jets’ Joe Flacco leads all NFL passers in attempts with 103. The next-closest QB is Joe Burrow at 89. If you’ll remember, these two passers match up with one another this weekend, meaning we could have plenty of pass volume on our hands in this game – a very strong recipe for success on DraftKings.
Garrett Wilson’s coming-out party was glorious to watch in Week 2, as the rookie torched Cleveland’s secondary for 8-102-2 in just his second NFL game. The Ohio State product’s greatest fantasy skill right now is his ability to earn targets in the red zone; he leads the league in red-zone targets with eight. After a huge performance like he had in Week 2, Robert Saleh would be plain stupid to not involve him even more going forward.
Let’s not forget about Elijah Moore. The talented sophomore receiver posted at least six catches in 4-of-11 games during his rookie year, and he notched five in Week 1 of this year. New York will likely be trailing in this spot after we consider the aforementioned Bengals and their exploitable matchups in the secondary.
This could lead to huge pass volume for Flacco and company, which is a game plan they’re not against deploying, considering Flacco dropped back 59 and 44 times during the first two games of the year. A Jets receiver is going to get there; it’s just a matter of which one.
I throw Tyler Conklin into the mix, too, because the underlying metrics are also popping, much like Hayden Hurst’s. The fifth-year veteran ranks top 10 at the position in the following metrics: routes run (first), snap share (third), targets (fourth), slot snaps (seventh), and route participation (eighth). He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in both outings this year and he’s the 13th-highest-priced TE on the slate.
Preferred bring-back: Any of Cincy's top options
Leverage piece: Michael Carter ($5200)
Clicking on Michael Carter might make you cringe, but that’s exactly why he’s a good GPP play. Every other DFS player is feeling that same type of cringe. The second-year back out of North Carolina has produced ceiling games in the past, and this game environment is phenomenal for a guy of his archetype.
Only Austin Ekeler has Carter trumped in the receptions department, as No. 32 for Gang Green has hauled in 12 catches on 14 targets. His snap share currently sits at 60.0% through two games, compared to Breece Hall’s 36.6%. In a game where New York should be trailing, Carter will be called upon to shoulder the receiving workload and snaps.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Matt Ryan ($6700) + Michael Pittman Jr. ($7400) AND Nyheim Hines ($5100)
To start off this section, I’m going to cite two stats that I’ve never used before from Player Profiler: Matt Ryan currently ranks second in both danger plays (11) and interceptable passes (8) through two weeks. To put it differently, he’s been very, very bad to this point.
The thesis behind this stack recommendation is simple: The Colts play the Chiefs at home in Week 3. And the Chiefs are pretty good – at both winning games and scoring touchdowns. This should lead to Indy trailing and chasing for much of the afternoon in a game that features a 49.5-point total. If I had to guess, KC-IND will likely rank fourth or fifth in ownership among games with 49-point totals or higher.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Nyheim Hines would be prime beneficiaries if Patrick Mahomes and company jump ahead early on Sunday. Pittman already produced a strong fantasy outing in his one appearance this year, while Hines has underwhelmed, making him a strong tournament play in DFS.
Preferred bring-back: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6100)
Leverage piece: N/A (Nobody is going to play this stack, meaning no leverage can be produced.)
Week 3's write-up is in the books. Good luck this weekend! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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