Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week One: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 1 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!

This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week one of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads

Here’s where I am at so far this week. All spread and total bets are one unit, each.

WAS (-3) vs. JAX

The Jags are getting some preseason hype, but I have a hard time not backing the Commanders (still weird to say, isn’t it?) at home against a team that was simply one of the worst in the NFL last season. Wentz should upgrade their offense a bit and their defense, even without Chase Young for a few weeks, should be somewhat improved too.

TEN (-5.5) vs. NYG

I’m all for the Saquon Barkley hype in DFS and Fantasy Football, but there’s still a really good chance that the Giants suck this year and their preseason was not inspiring at all. Daniel Jones might be toast and this defense last year was hammered by opposing running games. I’m not sure why everyone has written Tennessee off, I think they’ll be just fine. Derrick Henry bludgeons New York into submission and the Titans win by a TD or more.

PHI (-4) @ DET

Ok, so this is one hype train that I am on as I drafted a ton of Eagles in season-long leagues and best-ball and I have a bunch of PHI stacks lined up for DFS this week. I am buying in on the Eagles being really good this year and while Detroit is a team that we want to pull for because Dan Campbell is the coach we always wanted to play for, it doesn’t magically fix their issues on defense from last year. I do think the Detroit offense will be improved, but the Eagles have more talent here on both sides of the ball. I have them winning by a TD or more and putting up a bunch of points this week.

MIN ML (+100 DK) vs. GB

You know I have been touting the Vikings now for a month or more. I bet their win totals, I bet them to win the division, and I even put a little down on them winning the NFC. This is the year of the Viking! And it starts Week One by setting the tone in the division and beating their nemesis - the Packers. As 1.5-point home dogs, I’ll just bet the money line here to double my money. I think the new offensive coordinator in Minny is finally going to make this talented group of offensive players unstoppable, so get some Vikings in your Week One DFS lineups too.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

BUF-LAR under 52.5

I know everyone wants this game to shoot out and yes both of these offenses are incredibly talented, but my model is signaling an under here based on both defenses being really good too. I also give the defenses a slight advantage in Week One, especially with teams like Buffalo and L.A. who barely played their starters at all in the preseason. Way more money has come in on the over here, but this line has only moved a half-point, which shows me that a decent volume of money has come in on the under too.

GB-MIN over 47

Minnesota’s offense could be elite, but their defense could struggle again this year. These teams battled to a 34-31 final in one of their two contests last year, and I am not saying it goes that high, but I think we see plenty of scoring on both sides.

TB-DAL over 51

We also saw this game go off last year as these teams combined for 60 points in the opener. Both teams like to play fast (ranked first and second in situation-neutral seconds per play) and I like both offenses to be able to move the ball all game, even with some offensive line issues on both teams.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

So let’s establish something here. I am going to post some money line parlays each week and at least one teaser. These bets carry more risk than straight bets, even if they seem like slam dunks! I try not to get too carried away and limit them to 3-4 games at the most. Play along if you like, or build your own. Most of these bets are half-units if you are wondering how to scale them to your other bets.

ML PARLAY: SF/TEN/BAL/IND = (+230 DK)

The smallest fave here is Tennessee at -5.5 while the other teams are all favored by a TD or more. I’m not interested in laying 7-8 points, especially in Week One and with 3 out of 4 teams on the road, but I think all of these teams win.

(NOTE: You can also get +230 odds by doing a 6.5 teaser on the same four teams, which would result in BAL/SF/IND being -.5 and TEN being +1)

6-point Underdog TEASER:

NE +3.5, MIN +1.5, LAR +2 teased = NE +9.5, MIN +7.5, LAR +8 (+160 DK)

I was tempted to go with the money line on the Pats, but Eric talked me off a bit, I still don’t think they lose by more than TD if they can’t pull off the win. And I love the Vikes, but I also like having some insurance in case they lose a heartbreaker. The defending champs lose by more than a TD at home in the opener - Nah I don’t think so even though I love the Bills this year.

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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