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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/7/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 7, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 48-55-2, -18.22 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 18-22-1, -5.47 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: DET +156
TB: Drew Rasmussen | DET: Matt Manning
We're back at it today after going 1-1 yesterday. It's ironic that it was my namesake that ruined the sweep, with JT Brubaker allowing a two-out RBI single to Terrin Vavra. Nevertheless, we're back at it today. Sundays are always a bit strange due to it being the end of the week and a getaway day for most teams. I prefer to limit my bets to first-inning unders and first-five bets, simply because it's easier for me to back a specific starter than an entire staff on a Sunday.
With that being said, I'll begin out in Detroit with the Rays and Tigers. The visiting Rays will send Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 3.06 ERA) to the mound. Rasmussen has been solid in the first inning, allowing a tally in just two of 10 starts at home and in just three of 18 starts overall. He'll take on Matt Manning (0-0, 3.46 ERA), who is making just his fourth start of the season. Manning has allowed a first-inning run in just one of his first three starts but shut out the Red Sox in the opening frame in his only start at Comerica Park on the year. While three starts is a pretty small sample size to base anything off of, it is worth noting that Manning shut out opponents in the first inning in each of his last five starts of 2021, three of which were at home.
These two clubs have been going at it since Thursday, and it's been only the Tigers to log a first-inning tally on Friday night. The Tigers have scored in roughly 30% of their first innings at home this season, but in just 20% overall. Conversely, the Rays have scored in 25% of their first innings on the road and in 29% overall. The Rays have scored in the first in three of their last 10, while the Tigers have scored in just two of their last 10. FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under listed at -128, while my model gives the under a 61.24% chance of hitting. That's 5.1% and 30 cents worth of value (good to -158).
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Mets
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYM -144
ATL: Spencer Strider | NYM: Jacob deGrom
We'll head back up to Queens for another first inning under after cashing the Game 2 under last evening. While the Braves' defense was a little shaky early, Fried vs Scherzer was a rather good contest. We have what could be an even better one this evening, with the rookie Spencer Strider taking on renowned MLB ace Jacob deGrom.
Strider has been very good in the first inning this season, allowing a run in just one of his six starts on the road. That was the only run he had allowed in any of his starts overall this season. deGrom is making just his second start of the year. He did hold the Nationals scoreless in the opening frame of his season debut, and at the end of the day, it's Jacob freakin' deGrom we're talking about here.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Mets have been pretty solid at scoring in the opening frame at home (46%), and overall (34%). These numbers dropped one percent since yesterday's games, but the point remains the same. Conversely, the Braves have scored in 29% of their first innings on the road, as well as in 29% of games overall. The Braves have scored in four of their last 10 opening frames while the Mets have scored in three. My model gives the first inning under a 58.8% chance of hitting (due to the small deGrom sample size). However, it's certainly worth noting that FanDuel Sportsbook has the first-inning tie at -185, but the first inning under sits at just -136. We're getting 7 cents of value on that line, so we're going to take advantage of it.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-136) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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