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Training camps are underway across the NFL and that means football season is oh-so-close. This is the best time of year. Fantasy football articles fill my Twitter feed, and everyone and their brother is hyping up their rankings or podcast, it's truly the best time for sports fans. The amount of information being thrown our way is slightly overwhelming but find me a person who complains and I'll show you a liar.
We all read into news, stats, and projections differently so it's important to take every bit of content we engage in with a grain of salt. Follow people that you enjoy reading, watching, or listening to, and remember that this is all about having fun. And yes, winning is fun, so finding that perfect balance is key!
I'll admit I'm not a huge futures bettor. Too many things can happen over the course of a season that can completely kill a bet -- but just like any other action we place, it comes down to bankroll management and not putting all of your eggs in one basket. I've been on a bit of a hiatus writing during baseball season but I'm very excited for a busy football season that gets started right now! Below are some futures bets that caught my eye as we enter the 2022 preseason.
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San Francisco 49ers - NFL Win Totals Futures Bets
Line: 10 wins
The 49ers continue to be one of the most interesting teams in the NFL. After an unimpressive 10-7 regular season in 2021, the team has decided to let Jimmy Garoppolo seek a trade and fully commit to Trey Lance as their future quarterback. The second-year signal caller will have the chance to improve an offense that posted 24 points per game (ppg) and 361 yards per game (ypg) last season.
The dual-threat passer has fantasy managers licking their chops, but things are a little different on the sports betting side. We’ve seen so little of the North Dakota State product in the last two years of football (two starts in '21), that it’s tough to be anything other than cautiously optimistic. The 49ers return weapons in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle but we can’t forget Brandon Aiyuk issues this offseason, which can create a sense of uncertainty for a young quarterback looking to develop a rapport.
The NFC West got slightly easier with the departure of Russell Wilson in Seattle – San Francisco lost both games to Seattle in ‘21 by seven points in each contest. They went 2-3 against the Rams and Cardinals, including the playoffs, so there’s definitely room for improvement to rise above the rest in the division.
With a second-year, very inexperienced quarterback, leading a team hoping to make a run in the NFC, I have my questions. Vegas has totals set at 9.5 or 10, depending on the sportsbook, but I am predicting a small step back in San Francisco and going with the under 10 wins.
Pick: Under 10 (+100) Draftkings
Pittsburgh Steelers - NFL Win Totals Futures Bets
Line: 7 or 7.5 wins
Mike Tomlin has been at the helm of the Pittsburgh Steelers since the 2007 season and has yet to register a losing season. Of course, he has always had one constant over that time: Ben Roethlisberger. However, we all know the Super Bowl champion quarterback has retired and opened the doors for a new suitor.
Whether Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, or Mason Rudolph takes the reins, there is no doubt the team will be different. However, it's interesting that all we heard the last two seasons was how bad Roethlisberger was at his heightened age, but now that he’s gone the team will somehow be worse, according to either fans or media members. I’m going the other direction (somewhat).
Historically, under Mike Tomlin, there’s no doubt the Steelers have performed better with Big Ben, but heading into this season offensive coordinator Matt Canada will have had a full offseason and training camp to prepare his offense how he likes. Whereas last year, the long-tenured quarterback got to have his say in how the offense should run, which, of course, is fair but worth noting.
Add in Najee Harris having a full year of workhorse duties under his belt with an ever-so-slightly improved offensive line – they’re still not very good – and we might have something here. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are far from sure things and neither are suited to be a WR1 but have shown flashes of talent that can boost the offense.
Defensively, TJ Watt is impossible to ignore after winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2021, and he’ll look to repeat such an effort this season. However, his teammates have some slack to pick up after finishing in the bottom half in points allowed per game (24.4 ppg), and yards allowed per game (367.6 ypg) and can certainly improve upon the 1.3 takeaways per game from ‘21.
I look for Trubisky to be the guy out of camp, which Vegas doesn’t see as a good thing, listing the Steelers' projected win total at 7 or 7.5, depending on your preferred sportsbook. I’m taking the over and looking for Tomlin to keep his non-losing season streak alive. I think the offense has the weapons to improve steadily while the defense will return to more of a Steelers brand of football.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) Fanduel
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Philadelphia Eagles - NFL Win Totals Futures Bets
Line: 9.5 wins
The Eagles won 9 games last year, came in second in the weak NFC East, and still managed to get a spot in the playoffs as a wild card. Of their eight losses, one was the dreadful 13-7 loss to the New York Giants in which quarterback Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions. However, 2021 was a growth year for more than just Hurts but also first-year coach Nick Sirianni.
A middling 358 ypg and 25.5 ppg is where the Eagles ended up a season ago. That’s considering a less than stellar passing campaign by Hurts (16/9 TD/INT) along with their top running back, Miles Sanders, not scoring a touchdown all season. There's dramatic room for improvement. DeVonta Smith gets a new receiving corps partner after the team traded for A.J. Brown on draft day, giving the unit a much-needed boost in the passing game.
On the defensive side, Philly houses several solid playmakers in Fletcher Cox and Darius Slay but it won’t be hard to improve upon a 23.1 ppg allowed number. They did finish 10th in yards allowed per game with a 329.9-yard mark, but made some necessary additions to improve their quarterback pressure which should also aid in the takeaway department. They averaged less than one takeaway per game (0.9 per game).
It’s important to look at schedules when tallying win totals futures bets. The first four weeks of the schedule give the Eagles a great shot to open at least 3-1 and then through Week 10, they should have no more than three losses putting them at 6-3 (Week 7 bye) with eight more games to play. This team is improved on both sides of the ball with a chance to steadily improve their numbers too. Of course, it all hinges on Hurts’ play, but count me as someone who expects a good year out of the Eagles.
Over 9.5 (-130) Draftkings
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