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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 5/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
It's been a week since I have been able to do some NBA playoff picks and with baseball now in full swing, I've had to focus a lot of my attention there. I wear a lot of different hats here at RotoBaller and when the seasons overlap like this, I end up covering multiple sports and as a result, some stuff gets pushed to the back burner.
I'll be honest, I probably needed to take a few games off. My picks last Wednesday didn't really work out all that well and I dropped back under .500 for the postseason. But the NBA has my full attention (well, at least it's my primary focus today) and I am here to see where we can find some betting angles for these game fives. The Bucks and Celtics are locked up at 2-2 and playing a pivotal game five in Boston, while the Warriors are up 3-1 and Memphis is facing elimination at home without their start Ja Morant.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 63-66
- Against the Spread 24-23
- Over/Under 9-9
- Player Props 30-34
NBA Betting Picks for 5/4
Milwaukee Bucks (+5.5) @ Boston Celtics (214.5 total)
What a series this has been! Both teams have been battling and just when you thought the Bucks were ready to seize control of this series in game four, the Celtics came roaring back for a huge win to tie it up. Now we head to Boston for game five with both teams needing to win badly in what is now a best-of-three.
My rationale for this pick isn't very scientific, I will admit. Despite a huge win in game two (where the Bucks came out flat and Boston dominated them from start to finish) and a crazy comeback in game four (in which Al Horford couldn't miss a shot and the Bucks just couldn't close the door when they had a chance), I still think Milwaukee is the better team. And if the better team is getting a 5.5-point cushion, that's where I am going, even if the Celtics covered that spread in both of their wins.
This series has gone back and forth with no team winning two straight and I think we see that continue here. As I mentioned, the Celtics got a ceiling game out of old-man Horford and shot the ball really well (50% from the field) while the Bucks went cold in the fourth quarter, being outscored 43-28 down the stretch. Giannis is still a major mismatch and Jrue Holiday hasn't been stopped yet. I like Milwaukee to win a close one here and in doing so cover as the underdogs. Their ML is bettable, of course, but I will keep the official pick as just the spread bet. I also like the under here as all four games (even game four that saw a flurry of scoring in the second half) have gone under this total.
The Picks: Bucks +5.5 (-110), UNDER 214.5 total points
Golden State Warriors (-4) @ Memphis Grizzlies (218.5 total)
So if you followed this column during the regular season you might remember that we were betting on the Grizzlies to cover even when Ja Morant was out as they had a ridiculous record ATS without their star player. Morant missed game four and has now been declared out for the rest of the playoffs, meaning Memphis now faces an incredible uphill battle to stay in this series and could be sent packing tonight with a loss.
But the Grizzlies are coming home for game five and they did cover the spread in game four. In fact, they went in the fourth quarter leading the Warriors by seven before Golden State pulled it out in the final minutes. Is Memphis really better without Morant? Of course not, but they have been able to rally around each other at various points this season and play some inspired basketball when he's been out and we saw that firsthand in game four. Their defense is really what improves without Morant as Tyus Jones is a major upgrade on defense. He's nowhere near as gifted on offense, but he's a very efficient shooter and an excellent passer. The Memphis offense becomes much more balanced without Morant and while they lose that clutch scorer who can get his own shot or get to the line when they really need a bucket, they also move the ball better and get everyone involved in the offense with Jones running the offense instead of Morant.
In order to win game five, they will have to follow the blueprint from game four - play great defense and take good shots on offense. Force the Warriors to defend all five positions and make open shots. If they can make some big shots in the fourth quarter and get some stops, I think they'll be right there in a position to win and that's all we can really ask for. I like Memphis to cover here and maybe even pull off the upset. And if they do that, I think the game also goes under with Memphis playing slower and more methodical on offense as well as playing better overall defense, too. So give me the Grizzlies and the points as well as the under, which hit in the Grizzlies game two win and their game four "near-win." If they get blown out (which I don't think happens) then the total would have a much higher likelihood of going over in my opinion.
The Pick: Grizzlies +4 (-110), UNDER 218.5 total points
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Jrue Holiday over 1.5 steals (-160 DK): Jrue has two or more steals in every game in the series thus far. The odds here are not ideal for a straight bet, but great if you want to pair it with another prop that looks like a sure thing.
Desmond Bane over 3.5 assists (-110): Memphis has to replace a ton of scoring with Morant out of the lineup, but there are also a bunch of assists up for grabs, too. Tyus Jones will start at the point and is good for 5-7 assists, but both Dillon Brook and Desmond Bane will handle the ball a lot more on offense, too. We saw Brooks dish out eight dimes and Bane give out six in game four, and I think Bane is more reliable of the two as he averaged around 3.4 assists without Morant in 23 regular-season games.
Andrew Wiggins over 15.5 points (-110): Wiggins has been the most consistent player on offense for the Warriors in this season and often gets overlooked with Steph, Jordan Poole, and Klay Thompson getting most of the attention. But Wiggins has taken advantage of some mismatches in this series and has played more PF where he's a tough cover for opponents. He's scored 17 points in three of four games and had 16 in the other, so while there isn't much margin for error, he's certainly shown he's capable of hitting this number and he's been very efficient with his opportunities.
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