4 Sneaky Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: One Pick for Each Position (2025)

Quincy Milton III's sneaky fantasy football busts at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. His potential league-losing picks and top draft avoids.

Every fantasy football manager loves a sleeper or breakout story, but what about the busts? Busts are players who are drafted to be a huge contributor to your team but fall on their face. They are the bane of a fantasy manager’s existence. Busts can ruin what you thought was an incredible roster coming out of a draft.

Identifying busts can be tricky, but it is often easier than identifying breakouts. Outside of players who bust due to injuries, busts generally fit three molds: 1. A player who had an outlier season and is being drafted too high. 2. A player whose expectations are too high because of a change in scenery. 3. A player in decline who is displaying signs that the wheels are about to fall off.

Fantasy football champions generally do not have a bust on their team. Managers who get lucky or successfully identify busts are usually able to run through their league. Let’s dive in and check out a potential bust at each position in 2025.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

QB - Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield is due for regression this season. The 2024 QB4 likely hit his peak last season. He threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns at a 7.2% touchdown rate. Given that Mayfield’s career average touchdown rate is 4.6%, do not expect him to be a touchdown machine moving forward.

Mayfield is a talented player who has significantly revived his career in Tampa Bay, but he is not a traditional running quarterback, despite being drafted as one. Mayfield is a pocket passer, but he lacks the year-over-year consistency of someone like Joe Burrow, which does not justify drafting him near his likely ceiling.

You may be asking yourself, “Didn’t Mayfield have a huge rushing year in 2024?’ You would be correct, but that was also an outlier. His 2024 rushing yardage more than doubled his career high. Overall, Mayfield was a one-man show in 2024, willing his team to victory through the air and with his arm. Expecting that type of performance again, given that we have never seen anything close to that level of play from Mayfield, would be unreasonable.

If Mayfield were being drafted closer to QB10, that would be much more enticing. However, you are passing on the likes of Bo Nix and Justin Herbert to draft Mayfield. Both of those players have much more rushing upside. We know what Herbert can do with his arm, and Nix is entering a pivotal Year 2 after a highly successful rookie season.

Filling out your running back or wide receiver room in Round 5 of fantasy drafts would be more productive than drafting Mayfield. He could very well go off again, but it would be better to take a wait-and-see approach when you can draft similar value at the position in a later round.

RB - Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

How could the reigning OPOY be considered a potential bust in fantasy? Simply put, Saquon Barkley is due for a massive regression in 2025. Barkley's 2,005 rushing-yard campaign is unlikely to be replicated this season. No 2,000-yard rusher in the history of the NFL has ever repeated the feat. In fact, the last three to do it (Derrick Henry, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson) all saw their rushing output plummet by at least 642 yards the following season.

Saquon Barkley signs a 2yr agreement with the Eagles, congratulations to him and his family! Good move? I think so, but from a fantasy football standpoint 400+ plus touches last season is still a lot. Will he be on my Beware List in 2025… pic.twitter.com/a5YpoXQVin

— Tipp Major (@tippmajor) March 4, 2025

Additionally, Barkley's efficiency in 2024 was ridiculous. Behind an elite Eagles offensive line, Barkley averaged 5.8 yards per carry. His 3.8 yards before contact shattered his career high of 2.5. What is more, Barkley recorded 25 breakaway runs in 2024, and several of his 13 touchdowns came from outside of 40 yards. Those types of plays can be fluky and could swing the other way in 2025.

Further working against Barkley was his volume in 2024. Including the playoffs, Barkley recorded 482 touches. Barkley has struggled with injury in the past, and that type of volume generally does not bode well in a follow-up season.

Consider recent examples, such as Christian McCaffrey and Henry, who, after having large-volume seasons, went on to experience injuries the following year. You never want to predict injury for a player, but it is part of the game. Barkley presents a higher risk this season due to his absurd volume from last season.

When he is on the field, Barkley will deliver RB1 value. The question is, at what level? You are drafting Barkley at the top of fantasy drafts to be something close to the fantasy producer that he was last season. Other players at the top of the draft, such as Bijan Robinson, have yet to unlock their full ceiling, and the running back value in the back end of the second round is solid.

Barkley is not a must-avoid, but do not expect the 2024 version of Barkley this season.

WR - Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

The fantasy football community props up Tee Higgins every season. We always see the talent and want him to succeed. However, Higgins is being drafted at WR14. He has never finished that high. The reason? Primarily injuries. Higgins has only played one 17-game season in his career. In 17 games in 2022, Higgins recorded his highest fantasy finish at WR18. That was a season in which his quarterback, Joe Burrow, finished as the QB4.

Higgins is supremely talented. He was the first selection in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft as a dominant player out of Clemson. Additionally, he has displayed periods of exceptional performance at the NFL level. In 2024 alone, Higgins finished as the WR17 despite missing 12 games.

Higgins' issue has always been consistency, both in production and availability. He is drafted between WR10 and WR15 every season. That is a range that places Higgins as an anchor for your team. You cannot rely on a boom or bust player to anchor your team on a weekly basis.

Tee Higgins #bengals

One of my favorite WRs, can rack up fantasy points in bunches, but..

Higgins is ranked with a “high” risk for injury in my Draft Injury Guide, and for good reason 👇🏻

When he’s on the field he’s a great WR2, so do you want to take on the injury risk? 🤷🏻‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/pBZFUoc3t7

— Tom Christ, PT, DPT, OCS, FAAOMPT (@FantasyInjuryT) July 15, 2025

Like Barkley, we are uninterested in projecting injury for a player. However, it is difficult to trust a player like Higgins, who has been in and out of the lineup for years. To be fair, Higgins has suggested this offseason that he has been actively working to avoid injury as we head into this season. With a new bag of money in his pocket, perhaps the injuries will be behind Higgins.

With wide receivers such as Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba being drafted in Higgins' range, it may be more prudent to go with a safer option. Betting on Higgins at WR14 would be a bet on a ceiling from him that we have not yet observed consistently.

TE - Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers

Jonnu Smith, as currently drafted, is a textbook bust of a draft pick. The 29-year-old was recently traded to the Steelers from the Miami Dolphins. While his situation in Miami suggested a path to a significant share of the target market, Smith's Pittsburgh days are unlikely to be as dominant.

Pittsburgh already has Pat Freiermuth in place as a high-quality receiving tight end. The addition of Smith suggests the likely usage of several two-tight end sets this season. Freiermuth received 78 targets in 17 games last season. That number is expected to decrease in 2024, but it does not necessarily mean that Smith will capture a significant target share.

Jonnu Smith’s updated PPR ranking after being traded to the Steelers 📉 pic.twitter.com/S4fnmxXokU

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) June 30, 2025

Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has fond memories of working with Smith during their time together in Atlanta and Tennessee. In both of those offenses, Smith was used as a gadget player due to his athleticism. Early reports suggest that it will continue to be the case in Pittsburgh as Smith and Freiermuth will look to complement each other.

Smith's 111 targets in 2024 led to 884 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. However, Smith's career high in yards was 582, prior to the 2024 season. Smith scored eight touchdowns in 2020 on low volume, but touchdowns are difficult to predict on a year-to-year basis. As such, Smith could be on his way to more of a status quo season in 2025 rather than a season mimicking his breakout from 2024.

Smith is currently being drafted as a top 10 tight end. With the presence of Freiermuth, Smith is expected to be more of a streamer in 2025. He can be safely disregarded until the later rounds in drafts unless you play in a league with some kind of tight end premium.

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