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Tony outlines which underdogs on Wild Card Weekend 2024 have a path to victory. Which underdogs will pull off the upset and move on to the Divisional Round?
The regular season has finally concluded, and it's Wild Card Weekend! Welcome to the postseason; if your team has a game this weekend, good luck, and enjoy the ride. If you're just observing as a neutral fan, hopefully, the games deliver exciting duels.
Storylines are everywhere for this first playoff game. From Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit to Tyreek Hill returning to Arrowhead, it should be a very interesting week of football. Every year, teams that we expect to make a run are bounced early and face a disappointing offseason.
Which underdogs have a path to victory on Wild Card Weekend? Let's take a look at which ones have a real chance to get the job done.
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Underdogs Who Can Win Wild Card Weekend
Houston Texans (10-7) vs. Cleveland Browns (11-6): CLE -2.5
Sitting at two-and-a-half-point favorites ahead of their home game against the Cleveland Browns, the Texans are a dangerous football team peaking at the perfect time. They rank 14th in offensive DVOA, thanks to a dynamic passing game, while their defensive strengths lie in stopping the run. Cleveland has struggled to run the ball to end the season, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Texans eliminated that aspect of their game almost entirely.
Stroud has one of the longest time-to-throws in the NFL, and teams tend to get the ball out faster against the Browns to negate their elite pass rush. While the Texans do have a solid offensive line in terms of pass blocking, they will need to have a good game to allow Stroud to sit back and dissect coverages. If not, they will have to find success in the quick game while making plays after the catch. On defense, their biggest concern will be finding a way to slow down Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper, but if they can limit the damage there and find time in the pocket, they could pull off the upset.
Miami Dolphins (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): KC -4.0
The Dolphins take on the Chiefs for a rematch of their Week 9 clash in Germany where the Chiefs won by a score of 21-14. Injuries have hurt the Dolphins, as they are missing their top two edge rushers in Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, while Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert look to play despite being banged up. Miami's offense ranks second in DVOA this year, and they have proven to be one of the league's most explosive at their best. Kansas City is much worse at defending the run than the pass, and the Dolphins will have to avoid falling behind to stay in run-favorable situations.
If Miami can find a way to generate any pressure at all, it will be tough for the Kansas City receivers to create separation against Jalen Ramsey and other solid defensive backs. Losing Xavien Howard and multiple linebackers will challenge them immensely, but they will need to stop the run and create some pressure to get the ball out of Mahomes' hands. With the weather likely to be frigid and the number of injuries the Dolphins are dealing with, it isn't likely that they will pull off the upset, but their talent will give them a shot.
Green Bay Packers (9-8) at Dallas Cowboys (12-5): DAL -7.5
Green Bay is playing its best football right now, as Jordan Love and this wide receiver corps are firing on all cylinders lately. Aaron Jones is finally healthy, and the Packers' run game looked drastically different over the last two weeks. While the Cowboys have been unbeatable at home, Love is playing with great confidence, and Matt LaFleur is one of the better offensive minds in football. The Cowboys' defense has been in the top 10 this season, but the Packers could continue to ride the hot run game and young quarterback to a big day.
It'll be tough to find consistent stops in this one, as the Packers' defense ranks 26th against both the pass and the run. They will have to find a way to get some stops or create turnovers to take a little bit of pressure off their offense. Based on how tough Dallas has been at home this year, it's unlikely that Green Bay will get it done. But if the Cowboys collapse and give them any chance, this young Packers team could take advantage of it.
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Detroit Lions (12-5): DET -3.0
Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit for the first time to take on the Lions, who won the NFC North for the first time in 30 years. The Rams are heating up at the perfect time for a playoff run, and adding Puka Nacua and the threat of Kyren Williams to Cooper Kupp is dangerous for an offensive mind like Sean McVay. Detroit is average against the pass but number one in DVOA against the run, and the Rams will have to find some success on the ground to have a productive offensive day.
On defense, the Rams rank around 20th against both the pass and the run, while the Lions have had success in all phases of offense. Detroit's offensive identity stems from their run game, and the Rams will have to slow that down if they want to come away with a win. Sam LaPorta potentially missing the game is significant, but Amon-Ra St. Brown should be enough to keep their passing game moving. If they can pair successful pass looks with effectiveness in the run game, it will be challenging for the Rams to secure a victory. However, stopping the run and finding success on the ground could lead to a Los Angeles upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): PHI -3.0
Tampa Bay won the NFC South and will host the Eagles on Monday Night Football. While the Buccaneers have been average at best on offense, their defense ranks 14th in DVOA, including eighth against the run. Philadelphia is a struggling team right now, and their defense has been an issue all season long. They rank 29th in DVOA on defense and have been consistently challenged by opposing passing attacks throughout the year. Their run defense isn't as elite as it once was, and nearly every team has found success throwing the ball against them.
The Eagles have lost five out of their last six, including games against the Giants and Cardinals. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are banged up, and the Eagles will likely have to rely on their run game more than usual. If the Bucs' solid run defense can contain D'Andre Swift, and their offense can have a successful day against a struggling Eagles' defense, they have a very good shot at winning. While it hasn't been a standout year for Tampa Bay, Philadelphia is facing challenges, and it would be hard to imagine a sudden turnaround in their fortunes within a week.
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