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Dan Palyo analyzes early 2024 spring training news and rumors related to starting pitchers, with some overreaction in the fantasy baseball world.
Baseball is back and spring training is here! Every player is reportedly in the best shape of their lives or has worked on their weaknesses in their game. Hitters have fixed their launch angles, while pitchers have changed arm slots or added a new pitch to their arsenal.
How do we know how much of what we read about players is just media-driven hype or valid info that we can use to inform our evaluations of players for our upcoming drafts?
Some will say not to read too much into the preseason at all, while others will say that ignoring offseason changes or developments is foolish. There has to be a happy medium somewhere in the middle right? In this piece, I am going to focus on some of the pitchers across MLB who are getting the most hype (either positive or negative) and are most likely to have their ADP influenced one way or another over the next few weeks.
All Aboard The Hype Train!
Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
Skubal has fantasy managers drooling this year as he came back mid-summer last season and delivered 80 innings of great pitching, finishing with a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 33% strikeout rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his fastball last year, which was up two mph from where he was in 2022. In his first start this spring he was throwing even harder.
Tarik Skubal was up 1.7 mph on his 4-seamer today, averaging 97.5 mph. pic.twitter.com/OR7TnsFcds
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) February 28, 2024
Not only was the velocity up on the fastball, but it was up on his slider, sinker, and changeup, too. His ADP is already up in the 40s and might continue to rise if he keeps blowing hitters away this spring. If his first outing wasn't impressive enough, oops, he did it again!
Skubal-sanity reaching a fever pitch.
3 IP, 1 H, O BB, 6 K
34% SwStr%, 49% CSW%
FB topped out at 99 mph pic.twitter.com/FjfhPdffgm
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) March 4, 2024
Is it cheesy to include your own tweet in your article? I know managers don't want to buy high, but the sky could be the limit for Skubal and I'd be lying if I said I didn't have a few units down on him to win the AL Cy Young at +1600 (he's already moved to +1200 at the same book).
Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals
I have been infatuated with Ragans since the middle of last season when he took the league by storm after being dealt from Texas to Kansas City.
Cole Ragans in 12 starts with the @Royals last season:
5-2
2.64 ERA
71.2 IP
50 H
89 K pic.twitter.com/Iv4RviDCFQ— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 3, 2024
The Rangers practically gave Ragans away for free after he had a very mediocre debut in 2022 and moved to the bullpen for Texas to start the 2023 season. He found another gear on his fastball last year as his average fastball velocity jumped from around 93 mph to 96 mph. He also started throwing a slider, giving him five pitches and a complete arsenal.
3 more Ks for Cole Ragans.
5Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/e3sQLMySTT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 25, 2024
He seems to have picked up right where he left off last year as he's whiffed eight hitters over his first five innings across two appearances this Spring. His velocity was reportedly up in the high 90s on his fastball, showing that the increase in velocity from last year was no fluke. There are still some doubters out there, but it certainly seems like Ragans is legit and ready to take a big step toward being a big-time fantasy contributor in 2024.
I have a share of Ragans to win the Cy Young at +2800 as well that I made earlier in February and he's moved all the way to just +2000 now.
Bailey Ober - Minnesota Twins
Ober's ADP is on the rise, but he could still be a value even around pick 140-145. The big righty is coming off a solid year in his first full season with the Twins and has shown an uptick in velocity early this spring. Finding a tweet that gushes over Ober was easy, as I think almost every analyst I know is high on him going into this season.
Note for fantasy baseball:
I have drafted Bailey Ober in EVERY single league so far.
(His ADP is far too low)
Solid top of the zone fastball created whiffs, which works perfectly w/ low moving changeup to create weak contact.
Projection:
165 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 25.5 K% pic.twitter.com/N4eTjWxAyC— Matt Williams (@MattWi77iams) March 4, 2024
He wasn't a power pitcher last year, but he does have two quality breaking balls and a solid changeup. With some solid control, he can locate all four pitches. Minnesota has a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers as we saw Pablo Lopez take a jump in his strikeout prowess last year. You're probably going to have to take Ober ahead of his ADP because he's certainly not a secret anymore, and the industry is abuzz.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Los Angeles Dodgers
The Japanese import didn't disappoint in his spring debut. He flashed superior command of all his pitches and has Dodgers fans thinking World Series while fantasy managers drool over the potential combination of a high win total, high strikeout, low ERA, and low WHIP starting pitcher on their roster.
The low release point, the arm side run, the pinpoint command. Yamamoto's fastball plays in any league. Yamamoto averaged 95.3 MPH on his fastball last year, but can crank it higher. Hit 97 in the WBC. Yamamoto has special stuff. pic.twitter.com/YoruNtVnNN
— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) February 28, 2024
With an ADP of 41, he better be as good as advertised because he's being drafted ahead of Skubal, Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Nola, and Freddy Peralta. He might even end up being the Dodgers opening-day starter.
Chris Sale - Atlanta Braves
With the Dodgers having more quality starting pitching than the entire NL Central Division, the Braves had to go out and do something this offseason to try to keep up with the arms race. They took a risk on a former ace pitcher by trading for 34-year-old Chris Sale, hoping he can regain some of his recent form in Atlanta.
Chris Sale, Fastball/Slider Overlay.
Why you'd give up on that Backdoor Slider. pic.twitter.com/A0VyuVBFIU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 3, 2024
Sale has nine strikeouts over just 4.2 innings of work so far this spring. If he can stay healthy and even be 75% of the dominant starter that he was from 2012-2017 with Chicago and Boston, then the Braves have themselves a major weapon. Hard-throwing lefty ace pitchers don't exactly grow on trees. Sale's being drafted right around guys like Bailey Ober, Hunter Greene, and Carlos Rodon. The injury risk is baked into the ADP, considering he hasn't thrown more than 150 innings in a season since 2018.
JP Sears - Oakland Athletics
Let's go with one more guy who should probably be getting more buzz than he actually is... JP Sears.
⚾️ JP Sears had another really good start
3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB
He’s pretty undervalued in most draft rooms. The only big concern is the win total is likely to be in single digits
He makes sense as a pick in the last round or two in a 12 teamer
6/
— Joe Orrico (@JoeOrrico99) March 3, 2024
Sears has flashed strikeout upside before, but has struggled with the long ball and will have a below-average offense backing him in Oakland. He's an easy pick late in drafts, though, as his ADP is in the 300s and he's shown more promise than most of the pitchers in that range.
The Split-Finger Revolution
Coming soon to a ballpark near you - a lot of split-finger fastballs. Maybe.
The pitch that is very much en vogue right now is the splitter. If you can master it, it can be one of the most effective pitches in baseball - just ask Kevin Gausman. But if it was easy to do, then everyone would be doing it. Some pitchers who have been experimenting with adding a splitter to their repertoire include:
Bryce Miller - Seattle Mariners
This new splitter from Bryce Miller is going to play folks pic.twitter.com/WjJtS2yjAh
— Trident True (@TridentTruee) February 29, 2024
Nate Pearson - Toronto Blue Jays
Zack Wheeler - Philadelphia Phillies
A.J. Puk - Miami Marlins
The Marlins are trying out last year’s closer AJ Puk as a starter this year and he got off to a good start this Spring!
Worked 2 scoreless innings and added 3 nasty Ks along the way 🤮🤮🤮 pic.twitter.com/DFjLlcC94H
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) February 27, 2024
Hunter Greene - Cincinnati Reds
Dane Dunning - Texas Rangers
How many of them will still be throwing it in the regular season and how often remains to be seen! Oh, and in case you missed it, Spencer Strider added a curveball and possibly a changeup, too. Not that he needed to, but he could be somewhat near unhittable this year.
Okay, The Sky Might Be Falling
Kyle Bradish - Baltimore Orioles
Kodai Senga - New York Mets
Talk about a double bummer here. Bradish was coming off his best season as a pro and set to slot in behind Corbin Burnes in Baltimore's rotation but his setback could end up costing him a significant chunk of the season.
Kodai Senga and Kyle Bradish had excellent 2023 seasons, but their 2024 #FantasyBaseball ⚾️ stocks are way down 📉 thanks to new injuries. Kyle Amore breaks down whether you should buy the dip or avoid both altogether in your fantasy drafts 👇👇👇https://t.co/hD3wFJcZwZ
— Dr Roto Fantasy Sports (@DrRoto_com) March 4, 2024
Senga and his "ghost forkball" were fantastic last year, too. Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse being a Mets fan, the baseball gods had to kick them while they were down.
Both pitchers were set for big years, but are plummetting down draft boards due to unfortunate injuries.
Justin Verlander - Houston Astros
The Astros' ace has yet to face live hitters this spring as he's been dealing with a shoulder injury. That's not what you want to hear, especially for a 40-year-old pitcher who struck out only 21% of hitters last season.
Justin Verlander back on the mound this morning in what could be his final bullpen before facing hitters pic.twitter.com/23vZO8KVQx
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) March 3, 2024
Everyone in Houston is cautiously optimistic, but if you needed another reason not to invest in the aging superstar, an injury that delays his start to the season certainly adds to the case for fading him this draft season.
Alek Manoah - Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah was a feel-good story coming into camp. He lost 15 pounds and was ready for a bounce-back season after a miserable 2023 campaign.
Alek Manoah didn't look that great today.
1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, BB, 0 K
20% Whiff, 13% CSW
Only two called strikes in 38 pitches. pic.twitter.com/c6H2UA6FuL— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) February 27, 2024
Then he pitched badly in his first start. And now he's hurt. Whatever optimism surrounding him being a dependable fifth starter for Toronto seems lost. How soon until we see Ricky Tiedemann?
Joe Musgrove - San Diego Padres
Musgrove is a veteran in his prime with a solid sample size of being good when it counts. Maybe he's just experimenting with some different pitches, but he's allowed four earned runs in both of his spring training appearances thus far to the Dodgers and Guardians. That's good for a 43.20 ERA, as he's surrendered five hits, walked two, hit a batter, and struck out no one. I'm sure his third start will be better, right?
Bryce Elder - Atlanta Braves
Another pitcher who has labored through both outings this spring is Elder. He was touched up for two runs on four hits by Boston in his debut and then gave up three runs on four hits against Baltimore. He was the frontrunner for the fifth spot in the rotation before camp broke, but you have to wonder if rookie AJ Smith-Shawver or veteran Reynaldo Lopez may have the upper hand at cracking the rotation if Elder continues to struggle.
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