RADIO
Week 9 brought some serious fireworks from an elite few as six teams relaxed on bye, which surely made many lopsided fantasy contests. There weren't many injuries or crazy breakouts so the waiver wire isn't terribly exciting, yet many players were dumped on the mega-bye. Let's see what's in the waiver cupboard for us!
Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable causes for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 10.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
40% rostered
Jones had a poor Week 8 against Seattle and just saw his Week 9 bye, meaning the field has cooled and forgotten his wild 11-107-1 rushing line from Week 7. Assuming you can’t add Justin Fields (throw 20-25% if so), then Jones and his ~350 rush yards in 2022 aren’t a bad consolation prize.
He will deal with a challenging Houston defense at home now and then gets a cushy Lions defense in Week 11. NYG may elect for 40 Saquon Barkley carries but Jones’ own rushing potential and trimming mistakes in 2022 makes him a viable streamer.
Love breaking down production into different functions for QBs. Daniel Jones' efficiency is way up, mostly due to rushing EPA added and cutting down on INTs pic.twitter.com/11gviPktE2
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) October 28, 2022
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
39% rostered
I know many will groan but Jimmy G has thrown a pair of touchdowns in four straight games now. He and the 49ers have a pair of primetime games on the horizon, drawing the Chargers this Sunday night and then the Cardinals next Monday. Neither defense is intimidating and the addition of Christian McCaffrey has elevated the pass-catching corps and overall offensive potency to a healthy 15-20 point median expectation for ol’ Jimmy.
Sam Ehlinger (QB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
12% rostered
Ehlinger’s had a baptism by fire as an NFL starter and the Colts just fired Frank Reich, so things are going poorly here. Deep-leaguers can hope the horrid Raiders defense can open up lanes for Ehlinger to flash his mobility and drive the ball deep to Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. He needs time back there, but the ceiling remains high.
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
6% rostered
Pickett has only thrown two passing touchdowns over 4+ NFL games but flashed a season-high seven carries for 37 yards in Week 8 at Philly. Outside of the anomalous win over Tampa Bay where the Steelers barely had to throw, Pickett has attempted 134 passes in three of his last four games. Those looking for desperate darts for volume with sneaky rushing upside could give the rookie a look against New Orleans at home.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
30% rostered
The Titans bullied the Chiefs into a pass-happy attack that killed any hope of establishing the run. This meant Pacheco was phased out for Jerick McKinnon, who would see eight targets on 52 routes run. No KC RB found any room on the ground, with Pacheco’s five rushing yards tied for the lead among the trio.
Patrick Mahomes found glory with 63 rushing yards and a score but none of this changes that early on it was Pacheco still edging Clyde Edwards-Helaire for the 1A chair. Expect friendlier gamescripts for KC rushers in the future, such as Week 10 against Jacksonville where they're favored by nearly 10 points, which favors Pacheco.
Final snaps wound up:
Jerick McKinnon: 62.6%
Isiah Pacheco 22.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 15.4%Once they realized they couldn't run on the Titans' defense, it was full McKinnon.
So in a pass-heavy script/matchup, bump McKinnon. When they can run more, bump Pacheco. https://t.co/uoGSQ0UhoL
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) November 7, 2022
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
33% rostered
Hubbard has been held out of Carolina’s last two games with an ankle injury but should reclaim his spot as splitting starting RB duties with D'Onta Foreman. Hubbard put up a 9-63-1 rushing line on Tampa Bay, adding another 10 yards on two catches, the last time we saw him.
He’d actually been the 1A starter that game over Foreman, so let’s see if Carolina still views him as such. They have a short week against Atlanta on Thursday and Hubbard was limited on Monday’s practice estimate. If he cannot go then Raheem Blackshear is only 1% rostered and had 53 total yards and a TD on Sunday, outperforming Spencer Brown behind Foreman.
Jordan Wilkins (RB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
7% rostered
Wilkins was the next man up after Deon Jackson left Week 9’s embarrassment with a knee scare. Wilkins wound up with 28 total yards on three carries and four catches, which was well ahead of Phillip Lindsay’s two opportunities.
If Jackson’s injury flares up and Jonathan Taylor cannot go then Wilkins could be the starter for a reeling Colts team looking to rally under new head coach Jeff Saturday. Volume remains king, ugly as it may be.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
7% rostered
Prior to the Week 9 bye, Warren came alive with 75 total yards on nine touches. The rookie is now averaging 5.3 yards per carry while having hauled in 12-of-14 targets for 88 yards. Najee Harris was hampered by the Lisfranc injury but has yet to show any explosiveness with a horrid 3.3 YPC and only six catches.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that Warren might be featured more after the bye. That doesn’t sound terribly substantive to me, but the results thus far are begging for it. It’s a decent add for a week without big action to chase.
Isaiah Spiller (RB, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
3% rostered
Spiller edged ahead of Sony Michel for spell-back duties behind Austin Ekeler in Week 9, playing on 13-of-69 snaps with seven carries and four routes run. He didn’t catch any balls but notched 29 yards on the ground. We want to track any jostling on the totem pole in this offense, even if Justin Herbert and company aren’t operating at full strength.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
39% rostered
The six-team bye pushed Gallup into free agency in several leagues and you should keep an eye out for that. Gallup and the Cowboys have a suboptimal matchup at Green Bay in Week 10, but he appears to be 100% or close to it after the late start.
Gallup played on 84% of the Dallas snaps in Week 8, which was the same as CeeDee Lamb. Noah Brown was out and may eat into that figure but it’s encouraging after Gallup sat between 55-75% in Weeks 4-7. Dallas operates with a nearly even run/pass split but the No. 2 WR carries flex value.
Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
6% rostered
Marshall had nearly ideal usage rates to DJ Moore in snaps, routes run, and targets. He’s a bonafide starter that snagged 3-of-6 targets for 53 yards and the first touchdown of his career. The erratic QB play dings his ceiling but 15 targets and a starter’s snaps in the last two weeks means we’re hammering the add.
He’s only caught seven of those 15 looks but volume can lift poor efficiency into relevance! Games against Arizona and Baltimore in the next couple of weeks should keep that train steaming forward.
Terrace Marshall Jr. is an every-down WR since the departure of Robbie Anderson.
Route participation: 96%, 95%, 97%
Target share: 14%, 26%, 20%Carolina's offense is going to hit bumps along the way, but the former second-rounder is an upside WR4 with only DJ Moore competing.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 7, 2022
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
22% rostered
DPJ will look to make it six straight games with 50 or more receiving yards in Week 10 when the Browns face a vulnerable Dolphins secondary. His current five-game stretch puts him in the top 20 for receiving yardage, but zero touchdowns has allowed fantasy managers to overlook the fun. This situation could ignite once Deshaun Watson is back for the fantasy playoffs.
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
25% & 5% rostered, respectively
Robinson was likely dropped in many leagues following his 2-15-0 Week 8 performance ahead of NYG’s Week 9 bye. One bad week in a small sample throws everyone off, but don’t succumb to that process. While he’s been working as the intermediate option for Daniel Jones, Slayton has topped 55 yards in three of Big Blue’s last four games.
And he isn’t doing it by converting one big opportunity either. Slayton has drawn 22 targets in the last four games ahead of Week 10’s tilt versus Houston. Then the Giants host the Lions in Week 11 in what could be a sneaky shootout.
Nico Collins (WR, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Chris Moore (WR, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
12% & 0% rostered, respectively
Collins may return to practice this week and could put the groin injury behind him to become Houston’s No. 1 WR with Brandin Cooks pulling away from the team. In the meantime, Moore looked good with a 4-43-1 line on five targets against Philadelphia on Thursday.
If Cooks does return then Houston’s three-wide set likely is Cooks and Collins out wide and Moore in the slot. I still dream of Brevin Jordan getting more play split out but that doesn’t appear likely. And this team wants to go through Dameon Pierce if it can help it. You could do far worse with a desperation PPR dart against the Giants in Week 10.
DeAndre Carter (WR, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
31% rostered
This game highlighted Joshua Palmer but Carter was second on the team with 39 routes run thanks to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing Week 9. Carter himself was questionable with an illness but still caught 5-of-6 targets for 53 yards.
He’d be in play again without Allen and Williams in uphill battles against San Fran and Kansas City in the next couple of weeks. The Chargers’ upcoming stretch against SF, KC, ARI, and LV could be a bountiful one.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
36% rostered
Dulcich did indeed get dropped on his bye despite playing 50-of-61 snaps and running 32 routes in Week 8. Meme up Russell Wilson all you like, but he hasn’t been afraid to look Dulcich’s way with 17 targets in Denver’s last three games. With a touchdown or 50-plus yards in each of those contests, the rookie is a top-12 TE for me.
Greg Dulcich, even after missing 5 games, is tracking to have one of the best rookie seasons any third-round TE has ever had if he keeps up this form and stays healthy.
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 30, 2022
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
23% rostered
Kmet finally turned in a big week thanks to two touchdowns next to 41 yards on five catches. He also had nine yards on two rushes. The TDs rocketed him to his first double-digit PPR result of 2022, which underscores the modesty in your bidding here. Justin Fields is performing better as a passer in recent weeks but Chase Claypool will surely be the No. 2 once he’s got the playbook down.
Cade Otton (TE, TB) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
11% rostered
Otton was on the receiving end of Tom Brady’s game-winning pass on Sunday for his first NFL TD. Not bad at all. His 5-68-1 line on six looks means he’s seen five or more targets in three straight, as well as four of Tampa’s last five.
If Cameron Brate returns from his neck injury then Otton can’t be trusted as a starter, but it won’t be surprising to see Otton become the 1A over Brate. Whether that role is good enough for 12-teamers is to be determined but if we get near 71-of-84 snaps like we just did then Otton remains in play.
James Mitchell (TE, DET) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
0% rostered
So you want to live dangerously? Detroit wasn’t afraid to deploy a three-headed TE dragon of Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, and James Mitchell. Wright was the primary starter but only ran 15 routes on 50 snaps. Zylstra caught a TD but back on the practice squad now, so let’s focus on Mitchell scoring a touchdown instead!
Mitchell was drafted by the Lions in the fifth round this spring thanks to an ACL-rehab discount. The rookie tore it early into his final college season at Virginia Tech and began playing for Detroit in Week 4. The T.J. Hockenson trade cracks the door open for Mitchell to be the receiving TE. Watch for an upward trend in snaps/routes run here.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans Saints Defense (at PIT) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
37% rostered
The Saints have averaged three sacks per game over their last seven contests and just hung in there against Lamar Jackson on Monday night. They get a kind matchup at Pittsburgh now, and I know I said nice things about some PIT players but this is still an easy streaming target.
Don’t forget the Saints shutout the Raiders in Week 8 and can both stifle the run and generate pass rush. If the Saints can tilt the score early then Pickett will have to take chances and risk building on his early 4:1 INT-to-TD ratio. Or maybe T.J. Watt returns and simply demolishes NO into oblivion, in which case here are some other options!
Seattle Seahawks Defense (at TB) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
29% rostered
It isn’t the Legion of Boom but Seattle’s defense has played incredible ball these last four weeks. They’ve taken on the Cardinals twice, the Chargers, and the Giants, with the defense allowing an average of 13 points in that four-game win streak.
Not only that, but they’ve tallied 19 sacks and five turnovers as well. Normally, we’d be bearish on streaming a defense against Tom Brady but the Bucs’ offensive line is struggling. This is a worthwhile target for those needing a defensive play in Week 10. They’re on bye in Week 11 but then face the Raiders, Rams, and Panthers, so don’t lose sight of them.
Tennessee Titans Defense (vs DEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
21% rostered
The Titans defense has allowed roughly 15 points per game over their last five contests. They’ve also registered at least three sacks and a turnover in each of those games. Tennessee now draws a home date against Denver, which means Nathaniel Hackett. They get a reeling Green Bay offense after that as well, so snag them for a two-week stretch.
New York Giants Defense (vs HOU) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
7% rostered
The Giants host a struggling Texans team that may or may not have Brandin Cooks back in Week 10. The sportsbooks are holding the game total around 39.5 with NYG favored by nearly a touchdown.
The implied 23-16 score is a nice building block for streamers to rally around. Davis Mills has thrown at least one pick in three straight games and taken six sacks in his last two. That’ll do.
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