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When you get to the middle to late rounds of drafts, it becomes increasingly difficult to find stolen bases. Many of the options that are available will end up hurting fantasy owners in at least a couple of other categories. Therefore, it's important to either have a plan in place to attack steals early, or have some viable speed targets later on.
One player who could contribute in a variety of ways, but especially with his wheels, is Manuel Margot. He got off to a slow start in 2020, as he put up an abysmal .091/.167/.152 line across his first 36 plate appearances, but things quickly improved, and Margot earned himself regular playing time down the stretch. From August 10th through the end of the regular season, a span of 123 plate appearances, he put up a strong .321/.374/.411 line. Not only did Margot contribute an excellent batting average but also chipped in 12 steals, which tied him for 3rd in the majors during that time.
Margot didn't show much power during the regular season, when he recorded just one home run and a weak .083 ISO. However, things changed in the playoffs, as he found his power stroke. In 65 postseason plate appearances, Margot connected for five home runs, and his .276 batting average was identical to his .276 ISO (.552 SLG). What should we expect from him in 2021?
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Legit Speed
Margot possesses excellent speed, making him a threat to steal anytime he gets on base. Though his sprint speed has been trending downward, from 30.1 ft/second in 2016 (4th in MLB) down to 28.4 ft/second in 2020 (52nd), he still ranks in the 89th percentile in that department.
While the raw speed may be tapering off just a bit, Margot has been much more efficient on the bases over the past two seasons. He had a pretty low success rate for a speedster through the end of 2018, including a 52% success rate (11 for 21) that season. However, in 600 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Margot has been successful 80% of the time (32 for 40).
Another factor working in Margot's favor is the aggressiveness both he and his team showed down the stretch in 2020. The Rays led the league with 36 stolen base attempts in September, and despite reaching base just 19 times across his 66 plate appearances, Margot attempted 12 steals himself during the month.
Question Marks
Margot is sure to run when he's in the lineup, and a track record of respectable strikeout rates indicates he shouldn't be a drag in the batting average category. But there are a couple of other factors to consider as well. Is he going to hit for power, and is he likely to get consistent at-bats?
Margot's postseason power display was impressive but was unlike anything he had previously shown. He has yet to hit more than 13 home runs in a season, though he has topped out at 529 plate appearances. For his career, Margot has gone yard 34 times in 1685 plate appearances while putting up a .140 ISO. Let's take a look at some of the advanced numbers and how he compares to the rest of the league (shown on the bottom line).
Margot's playoff performance was pretty clearly an aberration, as he hasn't shown a lot of pop at any other time. He has topped the 28th percentile in Hard Hit % just once and has never beat that mark in xSLG. Double-digit homers is within reach, but without a lot of room to spare.
As for the playing time, the Rays do have a pretty crowded outfield. Margot will have a tough time pushing Austin Meadows or Randy Arozarena to the bench on a regular basis, and he isn't the defender Kevin Keirmaier is. He has also never posted a .700 OPS vs right-handed pitching, though Keirmaier himself has struggled at the plate in each of the past three seasons.
Margot is capable of playing all over the outfield, appearing in at least 15 games at all three spots during the 2020 season. He will likely push Kiermaier for time in center, and will spell the others when they DH or take a day off.
Conclusion
Margot finished strong in September and October of last season, proving once again that he can make a significant impact when given the chance. The level of power he displayed in the playoffs isn't going to carry over, and as things stand now, he's not locked into a full-time role. But Kiermaier is still a potential trade candidate and has a spotty health history, while Arozarena's contact woes suggest he's no sure thing.
The current RotoBaller projection for Margot has him hitting .255 with 9 HR and 19 SB across 467 plate appearances, while ATC projections have him going .251/10/22 in 433 PA. Both are reasonable returns for a player going at pick 245 in February NFBC Draft Champions contests, and he offers enticing 35 steal upside if he manages to lock down an everyday job.
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