Bold, Bolder, and Boldest in 2021: A Post-Mortem

October 11, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut checks in on his bold predictions for fantasy baseball in 2021.

Ahh, the time-honored tradition of making bold predictions is upon us. We hem and we haw; we make outrageous claims like Adalberto Mondesi invented the question mark, and bicker about the proper definition of "bold". In the NotBurtatorium (totally a real word), however, we worry not about this or that definition. Our goals are simple and our will is relentless. Be Bold. Get Jiggy Wit It. No more, no less.

At least that's what I said back in March. But now it's time to pay the butcher's bill for my boldness and see how I did. Eight players, 24 predictions.

Why eight instead of the standard 10? Because eight is my favorite number and I love to count! Ah-Ah-Ah! Let's get checking in on my own brand of weird.

Mike Yastrzemski(s) in the Outfield

What I said:

Bold: Mike Yastrzemski (140 ADP) finishes as a top-25 outfielder, batting near the top of San Francisco's offense and providing fantasy quality in four categories, even throwing in a handful of stolen bases.

Bolder: Yastrzemski blows his ADP out of the water, finishing as a top-15 OF and ahead of the likes of his ADP superiors like Luis Robert (and his 35% K%), Aaron Judge, and Charlie Blackmon (with their combined 100 games played). How, pray tell? By slashing .281/.357/.535 with 31 HR, 103 R, 91 RBI, with 4 SB. Otherwise known as "exactly what Mike Yastrzemski has done over his first 161 games in the Majors". With numbers like those, it's no wonder that fans start seeing the ghost of his Hall of Fame grandfather in the way he plays.

BOLDEST: Using Hawkeye's new, cutting edge "Ghost Mode", it's revealed that Mike has been cheating with assistance from the literal ghost of his grandfather, Carl Yastrzemski, in what can only be described as a real "Angels in the Outfield"-situation. We probably should've had concerns after one of his infield pop-ups went from being caught by Trevor Bauer to looking like it got thrown over the centerfield wall. But to be fair, Yastrzemski's explanation of "Bauer throws balls over the wall all the time. What do you think, a ghost threw it?" was based on sound logic.

2021 ATC Projection:

609 PA: 24 HR - 87 R - 76 RBI - 6 SB - .255 AVG

What Actually Happened:

532 PA: 25 HR - 75 R - 71 RBI - 4 SB - .224 AVG

Let's start off on the bad foot, as Yastrzemski finished as the #42 OF in 12-team standard leagues according to the FanGraphs auction calculator. The big drag was a .224 AVG and while I did expect his batting average to drop, as he ran a .250 xBA in 2019-2020, with respective BABIPs of .325 and .370, I didn't expect this. The floor fell out in 2021, with Yastrzemski getting punished by a .254 BABIP and posting just a .218 xBA.

His per-PA rates were actually fine but his plate appearances dropped as his problems with LHP furthered and moved him into partial platoons in San Francisco's deep lineup. In 126 PA vs LHP, Yastrzemski slashed just .170/.254/.259, with a .234 wOBA, compared to .242/.328/.520, with a .355 wOBA in 406 PA vs RHP.

0-for-one.

Gary Sánchez Finds a Hit Tool

What I said:

Bold: For the second time since 2017, Gary Sanchez completely blows past the Mendoza Line, finishing with a .215 AVG, only just missing out on being a replacement-level fantasy asset. So close, Gary. So close.

Bolder: Bravely holding off Kyle Higashioka, Sanchez uses his 20-grade hit tool to rake his way to 30 HR and a .215 AVG. Unfortunately, it also comes with a (barely) career-high 40% K%.

BOLDEST: Ok, ok. I get it. Still not bold enough.  So, let's get absolutely wild and crank the boldness all the way up to 11...Gary Sanchez posts a .235 AVG, with over a .200 xBA. I know, I know. Crazy talk. But we're supposed to get bold, right?

2021 ATC Projections:

433 PA: 27 HR - 56 R - 67 RBI - .218 AVG

What Actually Happened:

440 PA: 23 HR - 54 R - 54 RBI - .204 AVG

Okay, so maybe claiming Sánchez would finish with a .215 AVG is getting a little too crazy even for a construct designed to be so. But Gary technically crossed the Mendoza line at a .204 AVG and was basically a replacement-level fantasy asset, finishing as the #15 catcher in 12-team leagues, according to the FanGraphs auction calculator. Plus, he posted a .226 xBA (his highest since 2017)???

I'm claiming a (dubious) win!

C.J. Cron Goes Rocky Mountain High

What I said:

Bold: Whoa! C.J. Cron showing up on a bold predictions list? How original, Nicklaus. Well, I was all over Cron last year and still loved him this year even when he was still a free agent...You don't think I'm getting hyped about him signing with Colorado? Hard pass. Cron hits 35 home runs with a combined 170 R/RBI in 2021, easily finishing as a top-10 first baseman.

Bolder: In a land with a dejuiced baseball and more stadiums using humidors, the man with high-end exit velocities and low-end air thickness is king. Cron hits 40 HR and finishes as a top-five first baseman.

A knee injury may have limited him to just 52 PA but in that small sample, Cron did exactly what his drafters were hoping for in the power department, hitting four home runs (.077 HR/PA in 2020, .50 HR/PA in 2019, .56 HR/PA in 2018) in his brief tenure as a Tiger. He posted a Barrel% that was in the 97th percentile (96th in 2019) and his Air% average EV went from the 95th percentile in 2019 to the 98th percentile in 2020.  And just for fun, his Air% (100+ mph) rose from the 85th to 93rd. I mean, how do we think that plays at Coors? Hmm?

BOLDEST: After hitting 50 home runs and leading Colorado to an improbable wild-card berth (as well as setting up roots in the community with the launch of his C.J. Cron(ic) CBD line) Cron signs a new five-year contract with the Rockies that rolls into a 20-year personal services contract following his retirement. While the homers were nice, the real reason Cron gets locked up Bobby Bonilla-style is the discovery that rubbing his Cron(ic) oil on baseballs completely nullifies the "Coors effect", leading to a Cy Young award for German Marquez and a lifetime commitment from the Rockies for Cron.

2021 ATC Projections:

519 PA: 30 HR - 68 R - 83 RBI - .262 AVG

What Actually Happened:

547 PA: 28 HR - 70 R - 92 RBI - .281 AVG

Breathe that Cron(ic) in, baby. According to the FanGraphs auction calculator for standard 12-team leagues, Cron finished as the #9 1B, going a little light on power but posting a career-high .281 AVG and a .383 wOBA.

Digging into Cron's exit velocities, there were certainly some dips that aren't exactly encouraging, at least in terms of home runs, as he suffered big drops in a few key categories for predicting future power. His 11.5% Brl% was his lowest since 2017, and while the 82nd percentile isn't bad, it's also not the elite 96th and 97th percentiles that he finished in 2019-2020. And his Air% velocities dropped even further, finishing in the 65th percentile for balls hit over 100 mph in the air (93rd percentile in 2020) and in the 44th percentile for average velocity on balls in the air (98th percentile in 2020).

While his top-shelf velocities were down, the next levels stayed steadier. The average EV of his top-5% balls finished in the 94th percentile (94th in 2020, 99th in 2019, 94th in 2018) and the average EV of his next-20% finished in the 86th percentile (77th in 2020, 96th in 2019, 88th in 2018).

Even with the drops at the top, Cron still crushes enough lasers that I expect his value will be similar in 2022, as he signed an extension with Colorado, assuring he'll again play half of his games in the thin air of Coors. This is a good thing, considering he posted a .445 wOBA at home and just a .320 wOBA on the road in 2021.

I missed on the power numbers but Cron still finished in the top-10, so I'm going to exhale with mostly a win.

Ketel Marte Is off the Rocks

What I said:

Bold: Cold as ice in 2020 after his breakout 2019 campaign, Marte gets back to serving fools in 2021, straight up. Contributing above-average numbers in four categories, along with an elite batting average, Marte finishes as a top-three option at second base.

Bolder: At the worst (non-catcher) position in fantasy, Marte is once again a revelation, hitting 25 HR, with over 90 R and 90 RBI, while stealing double-digit bases. Finishing just behind Juan Soto in the NL batting race, Marte is the top second baseman in fantasy and a top-20 hitter.

BOLDEST: Marte reveals that the real reason he struggled in 2020 was due to third-degree burns suffered on his hands after spending his pandemic-extended offseason learning how to make artisanal sugared maize. With the burns all healed, not only does Marte get back to breaking out at the plate like it's 2019 but his top-secret recipe for Ketel's Corn is a gigantic success, eventually becoming the official kettle corn provider at all 30 major league stadiums.

2021 ATC Projections:

624 PA: 20 HR - 81 R - 74 RBI - .288 AVG

What Actually Happened:

374 PA: 14 HR - 52 R - 50 RBI - .318 AVG

This one hurt. I mean, not as much as the season hurt Marte, who took multiple trips to the IR but hurt me and all of the exposure I had to him in 2021. And things got started off so well!... For exactly one week, at least. In that glorious week, Marte started 2021 going 12-for-28, with two home runs, five RBI, and five runs, with a .558 wOBA.

But then his hamstring got taken out by a sniper and Marte missed six weeks, returning near the end of May. Before the hamstring got taken out again at the end of June, causing Marte to miss all of July. Between those two injuries, Marte lacked in power, hitting just two home runs in 120 PA but collected 16 RBI and scored 19 runs, slashing an impressive .349/.400/.486.

Marte came back on August 1 and got right back to being excellent, this time with more power, hitting 10 HR in his final 226 PA, with 28 R and 29 RBI, slashing .283/.350/.517, with a .366 wOBA and 127 wRC+.

I'm giving myself a little bit of partial credit on this one because the only thing that diminished Marte's production was a balky hamstring. According to the FanGraphs auction calculator for standard 12-team leagues, Marte finished as the 132nd hitter but if you run out his per-PA rates over 625 PA (a reasonable number in a non-injury year), Marte would've finished with 23 HR - 87 R - 84 RBI - .318/.377/.532, with a .385 wOBA. Even light on power, that would've made him a borderline top-five option.

But this is still a failure.

Ryan Jeffers Gobsmacks Fantasy

What I said:

Bold: Ryan Jeffers (441 ADP) is a top-10 catcher after beating out Mitch Garver for the lion share of playing-time in Minnesota, hitting 15 HR in a powerful Minnesota lineup, with a batting average that won't kill you.

Bolder: Jeffers finishes as a top-five catcher, completely supplanting Garver and his Sanchez-ian .200 AVG, hitting 20 HR with a mess of counting stats from the bases always being clogged-up with Minnesota's station-to-station style. Sound unrealistic? Well, small-sample and all but Jeffers hit three home runs in his 62 PA from 2020, posting exit velocities that are hard to ignore. His Barrel% (91st percentile), Air% average exit velocity (96th), and Air% 100+ mph (96th) all point towards some boom in his stick.

BOLDEST: After going down an Ancestory.com rabbit-hole and discovering his paternal great-grandfather was born in England, Jeffers legally changes his name to Reginald Geoffers III and begins taking at-bats whilst wearing a monocle. Demanding he be referred to as the "Earl of Mash", Geoffers only attends post-game press conferences once he's had time to be properly dressed in full tails by his butler and only answers questions from reporters who are dressed likewise. Any septic tank tossers wearing otherwise get treated to blistering insults delivered only in Cockney rhyming slang.

2021 ATC Projections:

270 PA: 10 HR - 29 R - 32 RBI - .254 AVG

What Actually Happened:

293 PA: 14 HR - 28 R - 35 RBI - .199 AVG

Jeffers did pick up more playing time but that had more to do with Mitch Garver's injuries than actually outplaying him, hitting 14 HR in 293 PA but only posting a .199 AVG and .289 wOBA, with a 36.9% K%. And his the Air% (100 mph+) dropped to the 80th percentile from the 84th percentile, and his average EV on balls hit in the air dropped from the 88th percentile to the 80th. Those are still good, just not elite. And when you make as little contact as Jeffers does, they need to be elite.

And considering how well he's doing against sliders, don't expect that contact rate to go up anytime soon. Jeffers had a -1.3 Run Value per 100 pitches against sliders, placing him in the 13th percentile amongst qualified batters (min n=250). Once the book gets out, expect it to get thrown at you, more and more.

Much like Jeffers facing the slidepiece, I took the big whiff here.

Peter Fairbanks Proves Tampa Bay Hates Fantasy Players

What I said:

Bold: With Tampa using a mishmash of closers, Peter Fairbanks and his 15 saves narrowly edge out the 12 of Nick Anderson and 10 of Diego Castillo for the team lead.

Bolder: Tampa Bay goes full swerve, installing Fairbanks as a traditional closer, with Anderson and Castillo settling into high-leverage fireman roles. All other Tampa Bay relievers combine for just five saves, as Fairbanks finishes with 30 saves and as a top-five option in the AL.

BOLDEST: Fairbanks finishes with 30 saves but they all come in five random weeks, as he collects zero saves in all of the other weeks combined. When asked about this oddity in his end-of-season press conference, Rays manager Kevin Cash spends 10 minutes collapsed in hysterical giggles, collecting himself only long enough to sarcastically ask, "Whaddya think about that, fantasy nerds?!"

2021 ATC Projections:

65 IP: 5 W - 14 SV - 87 K - 3.49 ERA - 1.22 WHIP

What Actually Happened:

42.2 IP: 3 W - 5 SV - 56 K - 3.59 ERA - 1.43 WHIP

Making a prediction about who would lead the Rays in saves from a fool's errand from jump street and Tampa didn't disappoint, with Diego Castillo leading the team with 14 Saves, even though he was traded to Seattle at the deadline. After Castillo, came Andrew Kittredge with 8 Saves, and Fairbanks coming in third with his 5 Saves. The other 13 Saves for the Rays were split between nine other relievers...The Rays!

I'm taking a loss on the total prediction but I'm going to go ahead and claim some partial credit because I'm confident that somewhere, at some time, Kevin Cash spends an appreciable amount of time laughing at anyone foolish enough to try and predict his bullpen usage.

Tanner Rainey Doesn't Need Saves To Call Fantasy Thunder

What I said:

Bold: Elite ratios and a pile of strikeouts are more valuable than you think in relievers, even without saves. Especially for those types prone to drafting the Jose Berrios and Sandy Alcantaras of the world. Rainey (579 ADP) goes over 60 IP, with solid ratios, and close to 100 K. Easy-peasy, Bob's your uncle, and Tanner's a top-25 RP.

Bolder: Rainey never fully takes over the closer's job but winds up with near- double-digit saves after occasionally filling in for a struggling Brad Hand and gas can Daniel Hudson. Add those saves to the aforementioned ratios (2020: 2.66 ERA/2.74 xFIP/2.30 SIERA) and strikeouts (2020: 42.7% K%, 21.5 SwStr%) and you make it Rainey with a top-15 RP.

BOLDEST: Brad Hand suddenly retires to pursue his lifelong dream of touring the convention circuit in deep Mr. Hand cosplay, handing the closer role to Rainey, who goes on to finish as the top reliever in the NL. On the other, Hand later necks with a 57-year-old Phoebe Cates in the second-floor ice room of a Day's Inn after sharing a panel with her at the lightly-attended "RidgemontCon" in Rochester, New York. Everybody wins.

2021 ATC Projections:

62 IP: 3 W - 9 SV - 89 K - 3.80 ERA - 1.27 WHIP

What Actually Happened:

31.2 IP: 1 W - 3 SV - 42 K - 7.39 ERA - 1.71 WHIP

Welp, I was right about Brad Hand being a disaster but didn't count on Rainey exceeding his level of bad, posting a 7.39 ERA, with a 5.63 FIP and 5.90 xFIP. His walk-rate ballooned back up to a 16.6% BB% and the elite level of whiffery was nowhere to be found. Rainey posted just a 27.8% K% and 15.6% SwStr%, down from a 42.7% K% and 21.6% SwStr% in 2021.

And I did with this prediction, what Rainey was unable to do in 2021...The big whiff!

Kevin Gausman Hits the Gas

What I said:

Bold: Coming off of a year in which he ran a career-high 32.3 K% and career-low 1.11 WHIP over 60 IP, and posted a 3.62 ERA that was virtually a career-low, Kevin Gausman (138 ADP) finishes as a top-20 starting pitcher in 2021.

Bolder: Gausman finishes as a top-15 pitcher in 2021, piling up innings and strikeouts with a sub-3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

In his injury-plagued 2019, Gausman was basically a two-pitch pitcher after totally shelving his slider and throwing his four-seamer and split-finger a combined 95%. The results were ugly, posting a career-high 5.72 ERA and 1.42 WHIP that was his second-highest, even as he ran a career-high 25.3 K%. The slider showed back up in 2020 but mostly only to right-handers, as Gausman reintroduced his changeup, throwing it around 15% and in equal amounts to righties and lefties. Thrown at the same speed as his splitty, the changeup made both of his fastballs more deadly, allowing him to attack batters at the top of the zone with a high-spin heater and at the bottom with two nasty offspeed pitches.

On just a one-year contract with the Giants, don't expect San Francisco to baby a 30-year-old horse who pitched a combined 554 IP from 2016-2018. Being able to count on high usage in this post-pandemic season is a bigger boon than one might expect.

BOLDEST: Set to make $19 million dollars in 2021 and with career earnings nearing $25 million, Kevin Gausman finally grows the backbone that none of his San Francisco teammates have been able to muster over the last two seasons, rallying the team to boycott playing until Gabe Kapler is removed as manager. Citing Kapler's multiple coverups of sexual assault, attempted witness intimidation, and a general lack of any real remorse (let alone consequences), the Gausman-led Giants refuse to play until Kapler, as well as the man who hired him, general manager Farhan Zaidi, both step down.

What we accept as right and wrong must be stronger than our love of sport and media and allowing enablers to continue leading from the top only puts us all further off the path.  And because when good people do nothing, nothing gets better.

What? You thought we'd end with some more jokes?

2021 ATC Projections:

164 IP: 10 W - 0 SV - 182  K - 3.87 ERA - 1.21 WHIP

What Actually Happened:

192 IP: 14 W - 0 SV - 227 K - 2.81 ERA - 1.04 WHIP

Oh baby, we saved the best for last. And considering how many injuries my pitchers suffered this season, my near-total exposure to Gausman kept a lot of my teams afloat. Gausman finished as the #7 SP according to the FanGraphs auction calculator and if not for the ridiculous pitching performances put together in the National League, he'd be finishing in the top-five of the Cy Young, if not higher.

Over 33 starts, Gausman put together about a good of a contract-year performance as you could ask for, running career-lows with a 2.81 ERA (3.00 FIP) and 1.04 WHIP over 192 IP, with 14 Wins and 227 SO (29.3% K%). And while he did struggle some in the second half, Gausman finished strong as the Giants needed every win to hold off the Dodgers for the NL West title. In his final two starts, including one in Colorado, Gausman allowed a total of 2 ER over 13 IP, walking one and striking out 16. That's what an ace does.

Unfortunately, my boldest prediction was a total whiff, as the feel-good story of the Giants has totally whitewashed over any lingering concerns about the fact that they are managed by a man who covered up multiple sexual assaults during his tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Because in sports (and pretty much everything else) winning will cover up the stench of just about anything.

So Gabe Kapler will be lauded, as will the man who hired him. Even though not a single person reading this would be okay with Kapler behaving in the same situation with someone you know, as he did in one with someone you don't.

That's not bold. It's just a fact.

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