RADIO
Brandon Murchison's 2020 NFL Draft predictions for the Indianapolis Colts. His 32 for 32 series looks at fantasy football implications for redraft and dynasty.
Even with a less than effective offense due to the unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck, the 2019 Colts remained in playoff contention for much of the season. Now, with veteran Philip Rivers under center, can the team provide some fantasy football firepower in 2020? Will the NFL Draft also welcome in talent to further this team's potential? Let's find out in our latest edition of the NFL Draft 32 for 32 series.
The focus of this series is to dive into each NFL team's needs to project their draft picks in this year's draft, which will go on as planned in late April. I will predict the first three selections and give fantasy football owners perspective on how this affects fantasy value. Whether it be a positional player or players on the defensive side of the ball, all selections made can help in some way when it comes to fantasy scoring.
As we have seen in recent memory, some rookies can enter this league and make an immediate impact. Based on the appropriate landing spot, this year's crop of prospects has the potential to create some very fantasy-friendly situations. When you're done here, look back on our previous installments by checking the links at the bottom of this page.
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2019 Review
The Colts weren't the most exciting team to watch in 2019. The last-minute retirement of their franchise quarterback sent this team into panic mode, and they settled in on Jacoby Brissett to quarterback this team. He did an adequate job in keeping this team competitive, but from a fantasy standpoint, Brissett and the Colts were just average. His 260.10 FP placed him as the QB23 on the season and a player that was a bye week filler for most fantasy owners. He did a fine job of keeping the turnovers to a minimum (six INT), but the 18 passing touchdowns were not enough for owners to confidently invest in.
Brissett might be a fine QB prospect by NFL standards, but the team decided that they are still ready to win and brought in former Charger Philip Rivers. Rivers will hold value as a QB2 in fantasy in 2020, but the days of being a high-volume passer may be behind him.
The only player that seemed worthy of fantasy consideration in 2019 was Marlon Mack. He missed a couple of games late in the season, but early on, Mack was as steady as they come as an RB2 in fantasy. He was heavily used (247 attempts) and he was able to pile on 1,091 yards and eight TD because of it. The lack of usage as a pass-catcher (14 catches) is concerning and makes Mack less valuable in PPR formats.
As for 2020, Mack should be able to hold RB2 value behind one of the league's best offensive lines. The pass-catching back for the Colts, Nyheim Hines, should see an uptick in opportunity with Rivers under center. Expect to see an increase in his 44 receptions from a season ago as Rivers has become a check-down master in recent seasons. Hines could have some Flex appeal late in PPR drafts.
The receivers for this team were a letdown last year as well. Both T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal caught five TD on the season, but the yardage was modest at best. Hilton's 607 yards weren't great, but he also missed six games on the season and was a decoy in a couple of others. All of Hilton's damage came early in the season as he did not find the end-zone again after Week 7. During Hilton's absence, Pascal became the go-to receiver down the stretch and even found some fantasy value down the stretch. He logged two 100-yard games and held a higher ADOT (12.43) than Hilton, meaning he was being targeted further down the field.
With Rivers under center, you would assume that the passing attack will take a step back in the right direction. Hilton is currently being valued as a WR3 in drafts, but if the volume comes back he could see himself back in WR2 territory. Behind him, Pascal should fall back in value in drafts as a reserve player while the upside of second-year WR Parris Campbell could come to fruition. If fully healthy, Campbell should easily start ahead of Pascal and be drafted ahead of him in 2020. Another winner with Rivers in town could be Jack Doyle. For those in TE premium scoring formats, he could be a very sneaky pick-up as a TE2 late in drafts.
As for the NFL Draft, the Colts are on the verge of a rebuild and must be smart to start the process now. With the offensive line seemingly ready to go, finding the right pieces to put in place around them is key. Rivers may get the job done for a year, but it is clear that this team needs a new franchise QB. They will miss out on the top players of this class, but there may be some interest there later on. Finding another receiver to prepare for the departure of Hilton would be smart as well. Another young playmaker that can learn from one of the league's best. There will be needs at each level of the defense as well to help improve a defense that was just average in 2019.
Indianapolis Colts - 2020 Outlook
TEAM GRADES
Offense: 74.9 (15th)
Defense: 75.1 (12th)
Overall: 81.9 (15th)
TEAM NEEDS
WR, QB, DL
First Selection (2.02)
Xavier Mckinney, S Alabama
Coming into the league labeled as a safety, Mckinney could provide the Colts with some alignment flexibility. His coverage instincts, athleticism, and quick-twitch are more cornerback traits than safety and could allow him to be moved. He offers a combination of plus athleticism, field awareness, and versatility. He spent time at free safety, slot, and in the box in college and was accomplished at each.
He can play center field if needed and is an adequate open-field tackler. His skillset will be hard for the Colts to ignore, even with two young safeties on the roster already. But the team could use Mckinney in a variety of ways, making him hard to pass on in this draft.
Second Selection (2.12)
K.J. Hamler, WR Penn State
Hamler could be the apprentice to Hilton and become a great weapon for this rebuilding offense. He is an explosive athlete that can stretch the field with his amazing speed.
Hamler does nearly all of his damage from the slot and creates big plays with exceptional route-running skills. Drops became an issue in 2019 which led to a drop in his target share (20.3%), but that is a concentration issue that should get cleaned up.
He may be on the smaller side and won't go after the tough catches, but his separation burst allows him to create space on all three levels of the field.
His impact in fantasy may not be felt right away in 2020 leagues, but in dynasty, he will be an intriguing prospect to grab and hold onto to see how this offense takes shape. Hamler is destined to become a solid WR3 in fantasy and consistent PPR player.
Third Selection (3.11)
Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma
The ultimate wildcard in this year's QB class, Hurts could benefit by sitting behind Rivers for a year and learning the pro game. His potential will be directly tied to how a specific team views him.
He has had an excellent offseason of workouts and has answered plenty of questions about his accuracy issues. But he is a dual-threat QB that is known for his toughness, strength, and character. His decision-making skills show cracks at times, but his play-making skills overshadow that.
His deep-ball touch and intermediate accuracy continue to improve, but he will be able to keep defenses off balance with the threat of the run. His mobility will allow the receivers to run to open spots, making his throws easier.
He is a seasoned rookie, but his progression will take some time and if the Colts are patient, they may have their guy in Hurts. He'll hold no value in 2020 drafts, but in dynasty, he has the tools to eventually play at a QB1 level.
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