2020-21 Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: Guards

December 20, 2020

Justin Carter's 2020-2021 fantasy basketball draft rankings for guards. He analyzes them for potential sleepers and value picks, as well as overhyped players.

The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner, which means you're likely doing -- or soon will be doing -- fantasy drafts. And to do a draft, you need some solid rankings to use in your drafting!

That's why we here at RotoBaller put out our 20-21 rankings last week. But what are rankings without analysis? So, in a three-part series, I'll be looking at how each position shaped up in the rankings. Players who we have listed at multiple positions will appear in multiple articles.

We start today with guards. Let's see what insights we can reveal about the position by analyzing our ranks.

Fantasy Basketball Guard Rankings

Note: These rankings are based off of our staff's H2H 9-cat rankings.

The James Harden Question

In a normal, ideal world, we all know what we're doing with the first overall pick in a fantasy basketball league: we're taking James Harden, who has led the NBA in scoring for three consecutive seasons and last year also added in 7.5 assists, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game, plus 4.4 threes per contest. Again, in a normal, ideal world, James Harden is the first pick. Full stop. Start planning who you rank second.

But, of course, we don't live in an ideal world, and Harden is currently not in training camp with Houston after demanding a trade.

This isn't something we're used to on the NBA side of things. In the NFL, we've recently seen plenty of examples of running backs holding out into the season for a better contract, but in the NBA, it doesn't happen very often. History suggests that one way or another, Harden will be suiting up for an NBA team on opening night.

But there's kind of a weird confluence of things happening here. Houston just traded for John Wall, reshaping the team's identity. They have a new coach and front office this year. They have a team owner who seems to care about money over anything else and could theoretically be the ultimate villain in this, refusing to trade Harden and fining him for not showing up, which could make Harden dig even deeper into his current stance.

And we have the trade demand, which is rumored to have been a "I only want to go to Brooklyn" demand. The Nets don't have a super appealing offer to give the Rockets at this point, so the two sides might end up being pretty far apart in potential talks, causing this to drag on.

Still, even with all of that, it seems likelier than not that Harden will be playing somewhere when the season tips, and while I don't have 100 percent confidence in taking him with the first overall pick, I still feel like he's the best option there, even if players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Luka Doncic are right at his heels. (In fact, I wouldn't even call it a bad move to take one of them over Harden due to this uncertainty!)

Update: Since writing the above analysis, James Harden has reported to Houston and has reportedly expanded his list of teams he'd accept a trade to. Still, plenty of uncertainty remains here.

Deciphering The Top Players

Harden and Doncic are the top guards, but things start to get interesting beyond that.

We have a trio of point guards at seven, eight, and nine: Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, and Trae Young.

I'll say this about these three guys: our three-man rankings actually had two of us individually rank Young over Curry, but things were so close that the third person ranking Curry a few spots up after skewed the composite score to put Curry over Young. Which is to say: this is really close.

But I think these three guys represent something: three visions for what to do in your draft.

There's the safe player, which is Lillard, who was ranked highest by two-thirds of us. Lillard averaged a career-high 30 points per game last year, plus eight assists per contest. He shot over 40 percent from three for the first time. Lillard ascended to another level, and it's a safe bet that he's going to continue to pile up huge numbers this year. Lillard is the safest of these three players because we know we're getting a high-floor, high-ceiling player who can be a top-five fantasy player with ease.

Stephen Curry is the pick for someone who's willing to assume some risk for a high reward. Curry is two-years older than Lillard injury limited him to just five games last season, so you're betting that age and injury concerns don't hurt Curry's production. Because Curry is arguably the greatest shooter in NBA history and is capable of scoring just as many points as Lillard but with higher efficiency and more threes.

And then there's Trae Young, the pick for people who like the exciting, new thing. Young has a lot more downside than the other two, especially with the Hawks bringing in Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rajon Rondo, and Kris Dunn this offseason, crowding things and potentially taking possessions from Young. But those additions could also just open up the floor for him, boosting his efficiency and boosting his already high scoring average last season (29.6 points per game) to insane heights. Young's 34.9 usage rate last year probably has to drop a little though, right?

Top 100 Guys With The Most Downside

So, which guys that we ranked in our collective top 100 have the most downside? (In other words, who am I lower on than our other two rankers.)

Kyle Lowry - Toronto Raptors
RB ranking: 44, Justin ranking: 52

I'm not that much lower than the consensus on Lowry, but I just think there are enough warning signs that we're closing in on the downswing of Lowry's career for me to draft him in the top 50. He's shot below his career average two years in a row from both the field and from three, and while his scoring went up last year, a big part of that was a jump in usage rate in the post-Kawhi season. Concerns about the depth here should keep him on the floor plenty and keep his floor high, but he's going to lose some possessions to Fred VanVleet in the backcourt.

Marcus Smart - Boston Celtics
RB ranking: 69, Justin ranking: 80

Another player I'm close to consensus on, but just a little nervous. In Smart's case, it's because he's not a huge upside guy. His one year spike in shooting in 2018-19 vanished last season, so while he did average a career-high 12.9 points per game last year, it's hard to see much room for improvement in that number without added efficiency, which I don't see coming. Smart's a fine pick, but I'd rather have the upside of Devonte' Graham or Dejounte Murray around here.

Josh Richardson - Dallas Mavericks
RB ranking: 86, Justin ranking: 97

I just don't think I see the opportunity for Richardson. He averaged 11.7 shot attempts per game in Philly last year in a crowded lineup, but things aren't that much less crowded in Dallas: Luka Doncic will be a higher usage player than anyone in Philly was, Kristaps Porzingis will demand plenty of touches, and the Mavericks really like Tim Hardaway Jr. I just don't see the upside in Richardson that other people see.

Who Are Some Sleepers?

Who are guys outside of our top 150 that have the best chance of breaking in? (And which deep guys did I rank above our collective ranking?)

Darius Garland - Cleveland Cavaliers
RB ranking: 166, Justin ranking: 143

The Cavaliers should be pretty bad again, and what do bad teams usually do? Give lots of minutes to their young players! Garland had some efficiency and turnover issues last season, but hopefully with a year under his belt, he's able to string together some more consistent basketball. He shot 43 percent over his last 12 games, averaging 12.9 points and 5.1 assists per game. I'd expect an increase in usage this year from him.

Jeff Teague - Boston Celtics
RB ranking: 189, Justin ranking: 149

I'm high on Teague because I believe that sometimes, you should draft for immediate impact and let the waiver wire help you later. Kemba Walker will miss at least a few weeks -- if not more -- and veteran Jeff Teague will likely open the year as the starting point guard because of that. For the first month of the season, he'll be a cheap source of points and assists, plus he should provide decent efficiency stats and make a three per game.

Tomas Satoransky - Chicago Bulls
RB ranking: 197, Justin ranking: 173

Feels like people forgot about Satoransky, who started 64 of 65 games for the Bulls last season, averaging 9.9 points, 5.4 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game. His shooting percentages dipped, but if he can get back to his 2018-19 level of shooting efficiency, Satoransky might end up playing more minutes with Kris Dunn gone and no notable backcourt additions.

Monte Morris - Denver Nuggets
RB ranking: 224, Justin ranking: 196

Predicting the Nuggets rotation after the addition of Facundo Campazzo is a little tricky, but Morris -- who averaged 22.4 minutes per game last year -- should still be on the floor a lot for this team. He's a good shooter whose primary value will be when he makes the occasional spot start for this team, but he'll help you with threes and steals even when he's coming off the bench.

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