X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2017 Deeper Starting Pitcher Sleepers: NL

Ben Ruppert's deeper MLB starting pitcher (SP) sleepers for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. National League pitchers who can provide ADP value in drafts.

The key to winning a championship in fantasy baseball is to find some gems in the late rounds of your fantasy baseball drafts. Anyone can draft a top-10 player, but only the good ones can find the diamonds in the rough.

Below are some deeper NL starting pitcher sleepers for 2017. I analyze five hidden starting pitchers from the National League who I think will break out in 2017 and provide great return based on their current draft stock.

Editor's note: You can find more draft values and potential sleepers all preseason long, and be sure to also check out our rankings dashboard which is loaded with lots of great analysis.

 

Deep NL Starting Pitcher Sleepers

Alex Wood (SP, LAD)

Alex Wood impressed in his first full season with the Braves, turning in a 2.78 ERA and 8.91 K/9 over 24 starts. He was in the midst of a down year in 2015, and was subsequently traded to the Dodgers in the Hector Olivera trade. Last season, he began to look more like the pitcher we saw in 2014, until elbow issues derailed his season. He made only 10 starts last season, with a 3.73 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His FIP/xFIP of 3.18/3.29 say he pitched better than that however.

Though his stats dipped in 2015, one thing that remained consistent is his walk rate. His BB% of 7.8 percent last season was nearly identical to his 7.4 percent in 2015, and that 6.5 percent in his rookie season. His strikeout rate returned to normal last season; his K% was 24.5 percent in his rookie season, and 25.9 percent last season. It fell to 17.4 percent last season. Wood will still need to work on lowering his HR/FB rate (career-high 11.6 percent last season), but his GB% was the best of his career last year at 53.5 percent. With the elbow issues behind him, Wood can be a 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 pitcher with upside.

 

Jaime Garcia (SP, ATL)

After throwing nearly 900 innings with the Cardinals since 2008, Garcia was traded to the Braves for three minor leaguers this offseason as he enters the final year of his contract. Garcia had a down year in 2016, with a career-high 4.67 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Some of this can be attributed to injuries; a finger injury affected his ability to grip the baseball, and a recurring blister cost him a fingernail heading into 2016. He got into some bad habits, resulting in his off year.

Heading into 2017 those issues are behind him, Garcia is looking to right the ship and find success in Atlanta. Last season his K% stayed in line with his career average, but his HR/FB% of 20.2 percent (!!) is likely to revert to his career average of 11.5 percent. His BB% was the highest it’s been since 2010 at 7.7 percent, which should also improve with his finger issues behind him. If he can return to his career averages, Garcia can be a very capable fantasy pitcher with a career ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.57/3.56/3.48. Injury history is a cause for concern, so grab Garcia late as a big upside arm.

 

Zach Davies (SP, MIL)

After enjoying a cup of tea in the majors in 2015, Davies burst on the scene as a big fantasy surprise last season. He was able to improve his game in many areas, ending the year with a 3.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 28 starts. He doesn’t do his damage being a big strikeout guy; he is a master of control. He was able to up his strikeout rate from 6.35 to 7.44 last season, but more impressively he lowered his walk rate from 3.97 to 2.09 last season.

Davies doesn’t have overpowering stuff; his fastball tops out at 92.1mph and sits at 89.3 on average (up from 88.7 in 2015). His best pitch is definitely his changeup. He threw the change second only to his fastball, and it generated a K% of 29.5 percent last season. Opposing hitters hit .214/.238/.384 off the pitch last season with an outside swing rate (o-swing%) of 50.6 percent, the highest of any of his pitches. His changeup is his best pitch, but he also mixes in an effective slider and curveball. With his elite, he doesn’t need to overpower hitters to be effective. He should be a nice innings eater for Milwaukee this season with an excellent K/BB ratio.

 

Robert Gsellman (SP, NYM)

The Mets rotation was a mess last season due to injuries, but something good came from it: we got to see Robert Gsellman make his major league debut. He made eight appearances (seven starts), and held his own with a 2.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 42:15 K:BB ratio. Throughout his minor league career he wasn’t a big strikeout guy, he relies on limiting his walks, inducing soft contact, and getting hitters to ground out. He held a 54.2 percent ground ball rate last season (fifth among starters who qualified) and a microscopic 3.6 percent HR/FB rate.

After allowing nine earned runs through his first three starts, Gsellman settled in for his last four and flashed his potential. In those starts he threw two quality starts (one out away from three), allowing only three runs while striking out 25 and walking six over 24 innings. He did not allow a HR in those outings. If he can get his 3.02 BB/9 down to his minor league average of 2.42, Gsellman will be able to excel as the fifth starter in New York. He is the odds on favorite to get that spot over Seth Lugo and Zach Wheeler.

 

Dan Straily (SP, MIA)

Straily was able to make some minor adjustments in his game last season that had a huge impact on his success. The underlying statistics say he still has work to do (4.88/5.02 FIP/xFIP last season), but he certainly took a big step last season. After winning one game the previous two seasons with an unsightly 6.42 ERA, Straily was a 14-game winner last season for the Reds with a 3.76 ERA. He was 18th in the majors with 20 quality starts, and threw a career high 191.1 innings.

What changed that made him a more effective pitcher you ask? Pitch selection. He utilized his changeup more last season, and had one of the major league’s best sliders which allowed the seventh-fewest hits per nine innings in the NL. Throwing breaking pitches for strikes last season helped him become less predictable in hitters counts. The change was minor, but has been effective. He held hitters to a .218 average last season (down from .249 the previous two seasons). He still has work to do; his 3.43 BB/9 and 12.0 percent HR/FB rate both need to drop, but he is well on his way to becoming a consistent back-end fantasy starter.

 

More Potential Draft Values and Breakouts




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
George Springer

Exits Early Monday With Neck Injury
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Hunter Goodman

Likely Headed to Injured List
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF