TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Going Against the Late-QB and Zero-RB Tide: 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

There are plenty of strategies that get thrown around in fantasy football war rooms, with terms like “zero-RB” or “late-round QB” becoming household phrases over the past few seasons.

What do those mean though? And what should they mean to you entering the 2016 season? Let's find out.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

 

Late-Round Quarterback

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: “you’re a fool if you take a quarterback early!”

Okay, well I’m not actually going to stop, but the point remains. Waiting on quarterback has become the thing to do, and with good reason. Taking a QB early means you’re passing up on a top RB/WR, which can end up burning you down the road more-so than a late QB can do. While Cam Newton did have a stellar season, scoring nearly 50 points more than QB2 Tom Brady according to FantasyPros Leaders, there were only 60 points between Brady and the 12th-best QB in Philip Rivers. So waiting on a QB is sound then yes? Sure, but that doesn't invalidate other approaches, nor does it make it the best approach.

Let's dig into some ADPs and compare 2015 to 2016. Andrew Luck was the first QB taken in 2015, with his standard-league ADP had him at 11.4 overall according to FFToday’s data from last season. This season, the first quarterback is Newton with an average ADP of 20 according to RotoBaller as of Aug. 24. That’s pretty dramatic.

People will push that streaming quarterbacks is viable due to targeting bottom-half defenses, but the landscape has changed a bit here due to the overreaction to early-QB under-performance last season. Andrew Luck’s injury burned many. People hitting on late picks of Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick types have encouraged waiting as reactionary trends are made clear.

So what to do? Waiting on QBs is certainly still strong with the state of the NFL right now. Passing is up across the board, with guys like Derek Carr, Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor being available outside of the top-12 QBs. Ask many owners and they’d be just fine with starting them. But now let’s wrap our heads around something.

Remember Luck’s 11.4 average ADP from 2015? It’s way down to 42.9 this season. He’s healthy, so what changed? He isn’t old, he has a young Donte Moncrief trending up and losing Coby Fleener definitely doesn’t result in a 30-pick drop. This makes for a great profit margin.

In the end, the obvious caveat that hangs over everything is “know your league”. If you have an aggressive bunch with QB then there’s great value in waiting on a guy like Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. If everyone waits, then taking Andrew Luck in the fourth round could prove to be a league winner.

 

Zero Running Back

Talk about reactionary waves. The “Zero-RB” strategy is one that preaches waiting on taking a running back until the middle rounds, loading up on WRs alongside a potential top QB or TE before selecting an RB.

One just has to glance at how running backs and wide receivers taken early from last season fared to see why favoring WRs early is popular. Last season the first four picks were RBs. Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray were all selected within the top-14 picks in standard formats last season. Whether it was through injury or ineffectiveness, they all failed to score as RB1s in 12-team formats (Hill fared best, checking in at RB14).

That’s going to leave a mark. So after RBs made up nine of last season’s first 14 picks (including the first four), they are now outside of the top three entirely and you won’t find the ninth RB until pick 20. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s a large change this early in drafts. Say you are picking at the back-end of a 12-team standard league. You now have a great chance at selecting Lamar Miller in the first round, an Allen Robinson or Brandon Marshall type of WR in the second round, and then a LeSean McCoy or C.J Anderson in the third before anyone else even has a running back.

You now have a stud RB1 that can anchor your team, except you didn't need to pick within the top three just to lock him up. You also have a great WR1 and an RB2 that is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack, allowing you to snag some insurance or a legit RB later as a FLEX play when others are scrambling to slot in Matt Jones as a reliable week-in, week-out starter. That sounds pretty good.

 

Conclusion

Austin Powers said it best: “Whoopty doo. What does it all mean, Basil?”

Going zero-RB or late-round QB can certainly work, but it would appear that these buzzy strategies have become so deeply ingrained now that there’s ample margin for profit to be had for the savvy owner. This is not meant to sell you on being contrarian, just to keep an open mind with some context for your 2016 fantasy football draft.

Drafting with a rigid plan tends to be a bad idea. You may have tested your respective strategy in multiple mock drafts, your league-mates may have told you who they’re “dead set” on picking, but anything can happen. It’s one thing to put a certain player on your “do not draft” list, it’s another thing entirely to blacklist a position. Keep an open mind, and you may just find some gold in the shadows as everyone runs to the spotlight.

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Andrei Kuzmenko

Done for Regular Season
Josh Morrissey

Activated From Injured Reserve
Jiri Kulich

Unlikely to Return This Season
Shayne Gostisbehere

Exits Early Friday
Roope Hintz

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Dylan Larkin

Not Expected to Be Out Long-Term
Evgeni Malkin

Suspended for Five Games
Maxx Crosby

Traded to Baltimore in Blockbuster Deal
Deni Avdija

to Miss Seventh Straight Game
Brandon Williams

is Returning on Friday
Klay Thompson

is Upgraded to Available on Friday
Amen Thompson

is Available on Friday
Daniel Gafford

Won't Play on Friday
Andrew Wiggins

is Downgraded to Out
Deandre Ayton

is Ruled Out for Friday's Game
LeBron James

Won't Suit Up on Friday
Mattias Janmark

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
Dalton Schultz

Texans, Dalton Schultz Agree on One-Year Extension
John Gibson

Starting Against Panthers
Roope Hintz

Available Against Avalanche
Sidney Crosby

Rejoins Practice Friday
Bobby McMann

Traded to Seattle
Justin Faulk

Lands in Detroit
Nazem Kadri

Avalanche Bring Back Nazem Kadri
Joe Mixon

Texans Release Joe Mixon
Harrison Barnes

is Ruled Out for Friday
Quinn Priester

Brewers Concerned About Quinn Priester's Wrist Injury
Dejounte Murray

is Cleared for Friday's Game
VJ Edgecombe

Misses Friday's Practice
Corbin Carroll

Taking Live At-Bats in Camp
Joel Embiid

to be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

to Undergo Foot Surgery
Jayson Tatum

is Officially Returning on Friday
Brayden Schenn

Islanders Trade for Brayden Schenn
Elmer Soderblom

Penguins Acquire Elmer Soderblom
Ricky Tiedemann

Could Resume Throwing Soon
Jackson Chourio

"Fine" After Suffering Hand Contusion
Trey Yesavage

Blue Jays "Still View" Trey Yesavage as a Starter
Max Holloway

A Favorite At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Set For BMF Title Fight
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Prefer Not to Start Fernando Mendoza Immediately?
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Looks To Bounce Back
Caio Borralho

Set For UFC 326 Co-Main Event
Rob Font

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Clarke Schmidt

Ditching New Sweeper Grip
Raul Rosas Jr.

Looks For His Fifth Consecutive Win
J.J. Wetherholt

Is JJ Wetherholt Already the Best Cardinals Hitter?
Corey Perry

Lightning Acquire Corey Perry
Drew Dober

Returns At UFC 326
Michael Johnson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Rafael Devers

Could Return to Game Action Next Week
Nick Foligno

Wild Acquire Nick Foligno
Bobby Brink

Wild Acquire Bobby Brink
Geno Smith

Raiders Release Geno Smith
Josue Briceño

Josue Briceno has Wrist Surgery, Expected to Miss Multiple Months
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Hopes to be Ready for Opening Day
Jackson Chourio

Won't Play in WBC on Friday
Carlos Correa

Scratched With Neck Injury
Brandon Woodruff

is a Risky Draft Choice
Jackson Merrill

Likely to Bounce Back in 2026
Junior Caminero

Could be Risky at Current ADP
Nic Dowd

Golden Knights Acquire Nic Dowd
Jeff Petry

Traded to Wild
Owen Caissie

Off to Slow Start in Camp
Logan Henderson

Sharp in Spring Training
Robby Snelling

Punches Out Six Over Three Scoreless Frames
Bryce Eldridge

Performing Well in Cactus League
Dylan Beavers

Holding his Own in Spring Games
Chase Burns

has Uneven Command in Spring Training
Grant Williams

Good to Go Friday
Ivica Zubac

to Remain Out Friday
Aaron Nesmith

Listed as Probable for Friday
Danielle Hunter

Texans, Danielle Hunter Agree to One-Year, $40.1 Million Extension
Trey Murphy III

Available Thursday Night
Zion Williamson

Cleared to Take on Kings
Andrew Nembhard

Expected to Play Against Lakers Friday
Pascal Siakam

Probable for Friday's Action
DJ Moore

Bears Working to Finalize Deal to Send DJ Moore to Buffalo
Stefon Diggs

Patriots Releasing Stefon Diggs
Trent McDuffie

Chiefs Sending Trent McDuffie to Rams in Blockbuster Deal
Taylor Moore

Looking to Build on Cognizant Classic Finish
Robert MacIntyre

Brings Solid Form to Bay Hill
Scottie Scheffler

the Tournament Favorite at Bay Hill
Xander Schauffele

Trending Well Ahead of API
Si Woo Kim

Looking to Return to Top Form at Bay Hill
Ben Griffin

Looking to Return to Form at Arnold Palmer Invitational
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks to Build on Cognizant Classic Win at Arnold Palmer
Sam Burns

Searching for Consistency at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Daniel Berger

Offers Sneaky Upside at Bay Hill
Justin Thomas

Making Season Debut at API Following Lower-Back Surgery
NASCAR

Collin Morikawa Hopes To Better Last Year's Runner-Up Finish at API
Tommy Fleetwood

Isn't As Confident of a Start at Bay Hill as Previous Weeks
Kyler Murray

Will be Released
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Not Using the Franchise Tag on Trey Hendrickson
Daniel Jones

Colts Place Transition Tag on Daniel Jones
Adam Scott

Might Endure Tough Times at Bay Hill
Aldrich Potgieter

Extremely Risky When it Comes to Bay Hill
PGA

Sungjae Im to Make Season Debut at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Jordan Spieth

an All-or-Nothing Option at Bay Hill
Harry Hall

Trying to Rebound After the Genesis Invitational
Ryan Gerard

Needs Better Start at Bay Hill
Kenneth Walker III

Won't Get the Franchise Tag
Patrick Cantlay

Still Plagued by Bad Putting Ahead of Arnold Palmer Invititational
Daniel Jones

Colts Expected to Use Transition Tag on Daniel Jones
Breece Hall

Jets Placing Franchise Tag on Breece Hall
CFB

Mark Stoops Joining Texas Coaching Staff
Jason Day

Attempts to Bounce Back from The Genesis Invitational
Jacob Bridgeman

Rolling into Arnold Palmer Invitational
Russell Henley

Looks to Defend Title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Khalil Mack

Will Play in 2026
MMA

Lone'er Kavanagh Gets Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno

Gets Outclassed
Marlon Vera

Loses Fourth Fight In A Row
Daniel Jones

Colts Have "50/50" Chance to Get a Deal Done With Daniel Jones
David Martinez

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Daniel Zellhuber

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
King Green

Gets Second-Round TKO Win
Felipe Bunes

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ryan Blaney

Falls to Eighth Despite Running Most of the Race in the Top Five At COTA
Ty Gibbs

Wins A Stage and Finishes Fourth At COTA
Christopher Bell

Earns First Top-Five Finish of the 2026 Season at COTA
Kyler Murray

"Repeatedly" Linked to Jets
Shane Van Gisbergen

Falls Short of Victory At COTA
Tyler Reddick

Wins At COTA and Makes NASCAR History
David Montgomery

Texans Acquire David Montgomery From Lions
Kyler Murray

Likely to be Released
Travis Etienne Jr.

Not Expected to be Franchise-Tagged
Tyler Reddick

Could Make History at COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Still the Favorite at COTA
Christopher Bell

Will Be Tough to Beat at COTA
AJ Allmendinger

Could Contend at COTA
Connor Zilisch

Carries Plenty of Upside for DFS at COTA
Chase Elliott

May be A Strong Contender Again at COTA
Chris Buescher

Is Nothing But Consistent at Road Courses
Ross Chastain

May Be An Underrated Competitor for the Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF