Even though the Buffalo Bills had a resurgence at the quarterback position last season with the improved play of Tyrod Taylor, Chris Hogan's year-to-year stats fell in targets, catches and touchdowns from 2014 to 2015.

So what's his outlook for the 2016 fantasy football season? I'm glad you asked, because I like his current ADP and draft day price, depending on your league size and format. Read why below.

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A Deeper Dive into Chris Hogan

Last season, his best performance came against the team he signed a three-year deal with, the New England Patriots, where he caught six of seven targets for 95 yards. The quality of Hogan's quarterback play will vastly increase with Tom Brady throwing the football (aside from the first four games, which is a crapshoot at this point in time), and now Hogan may become one of the strongest insurance policies for the wide receiver position for the 2016-17 NFL fantasy season.

Being an insurance policy isn't something to reach and waste a draft selection for, but if your fantasy landscape is such where depth and clairvoyant decision-making is rewarded, here's the case on why to keep an eye on Hogan.

First, the bad news. The Patriots have Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, both of which have a strong comfort level with the team's Hall of Fame quarterback. ESPN's Mike Reiss stated that he isn't sure if Hogan will crack two wide receiver lineups, and with the Patriots heavily favoring the two tight end sets, there may not be many opportunities for a third receiver to routinely be in the mix. Even if three wide receiver sets were used, Amendola ran 83.6 percent of his routes last season from the slot according to this PFF article, so it's safe to say that position will remain his. For a receiver that is built for the slot/over the middle role, if Hogan's opportunities come as the most outside wide receiver, gauging his effectiveness with Brady's return is purely a guess. Remember, Brady can't even talk football with his teammates let alone practice with them, so for the light switch to turn on that quickly with a new player is again, guesswork.

Now for the encouraging part. Although Amendola was durable last season only missing two games (compared to Edelman's nine regular season games played), him and Edelman both had offseason surgeries. Although Edelman's recovery by the start of the season seems like more of a sure thing, Amendola's status for Week 1 is still certainly in the air. Of course no one is wishing bad luck on players with injuries, but it's hard to imagine both of those players suiting up for all 16 games next season. Hogan, who ran 56.2 percent of his routes from the slot last season, will certainly see an increase of time spent in his prime position and will have an all-time great quarterback to work with. Hogan also abides to the all-time cliche of the best ability is availability, as he suited up in all 48 games during his three seasons with the Bills.

Another storyline to follow during Amendola's recovery is that although reports indicate it's unlikely, there's still a chance Hogan takes the second receiver position in the two-wide sets. If this happens, we can increase Hogan's spot start flex play ceiling to a definite flex/WR3 position. The ultra-high pie-in-the-sky ceiling scenario is as follows: Hogan passes Amendola for the WR2 position on the depth chart, Brady returns and the Patriots' offense is rolling in November into December and Hogan is the flex/WR3 piece you drafted in the 12th-14th round that rounds at your team.

As football fans already know when it comes to the Patriots (and their sometimes erratic use of players), there's an equal chance Hogan gets lost in the sauce if the offense is healthy and rolling by Brady's return. Between multiple running backs, the heavy dose of a dual tight end set and the possibility of both of Brady's favorite targets returning healthy, Hogan's ability to make an impact can be limited. With that being said, there's no denying he's a player to keep an eye on in the later rounds of drafts or those 14-team leagues where fantasy GM's have to dig deep for production.

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