RADIO
I previously looked at the top 15 quarterbacks for dynasty leagues. Today I'll take a closer look at running back rankings for dynasty leagues.
The shelf-life for running backs is so short, it pays to strike on a player while the iron is hot instead of waiting on an investment that may never pay off. For multi-year outlooks, stability at quarterback and offensive scheme will go a long way. From a longevity standpoint, smaller backs who can catch passes often avoid the body shots that wear down bigger backs sooner.
One-Year Pluggers
30. Shane Vereen - Too injury prone, not enough juice between the tackles.
29. DeAngelo Williams - He’ll be Carolina’s top back in a crowded backfield.
28. Steven Jackson - He could have a good 2014, but how much more after that?
27. Ben Tate - He underwhelmed when given the keys to the Houston offense. Running in Cleveland won’t be easier
26. Knowshon Moreno - He’s no longer got a light defensive box to run against in Miami, and Lamar Miller is still a potentially potent backup.
25. Rashad Jennings - The Giants offense should bounce back, and Jennings may even thrive here for a season, but it’s doubtful he’s their long-term answer at the position at the age of 29.
Flawed With Upside
24. Chris Johnson - The Artist Formerly Known as CJ2K has disappointed fantasy owners every year since 2009. A closer look, however, reveals a player who consistently plays 16 games, exceeds 1400 yards from scrimmage, and finishes in the top 15 at his position every year. His move to the Jets, and their questionable offense, is enough to warrant a slide to the bottom of this tier, but stranger things have happened than former Pro Bowlers having a resurgence with a change of scenery.
23. Ryan Mathews - Mathews has been up and down in his first four seasons, and he is due for a down year if patterns are any indication. The bigger concern from this viewpoint is the presence of Donald Brown, who resurrected his career in his final season with Indianapolis. Mathews ceiling for 2014 is probably a top 12-15 runner.
22. Stevan Ridley - If Ridley can solve his fumbling problems, he can be (and has been) a top 10 back in this league, given the limited competition for goal line carries and his prowess for scoring touchdowns.
21. Andre Ellington - Ellington’s upside is 5.5 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception. His flaw is 199 pounds and 4 touchdowns. Will he ever get enough work to justify a higher ranking? Even if he did, would he remain effective enough with the increased workload? Regardless, he is a very intriguing player for 2014.
20. Trent Richardson - With an utterly disastrous 2013, the comparisons to Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson evaporated, and they won’t be coming back anytime soon. The Richardson apologists last year cited his in-season trade and his lack of understanding of the playbook, but this scouting eye saw a slow 3rd-down pass protector at best, whose confidence was completely shaken. With Donald Brown gone, Richardson will be given every opportunity to earn that first-round status, but there won’t be any more excuses.
19. C.J. Spiller - Spiller had a breakout season in 2012, but then could never really get healthy in 2013 to become a viable starting option. There are few backs in the NFL with his kind of game-breaking talent. Were he to switch places with Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy, we could be talking about an MVP candidate. Unfortunately he is stuck in Buffalo in a crowded backfield waiting on a developing quarterback.
Bargaining Chips
18. Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD is obviously on the decline, but don’t forget how high up he is declining from. This was one of the best RBs in fantasy football for the better part of a decade. After a disastrous 2012 season, he bounced back to finish in the top 20 at his position last year, and that was on a joke of a Jacksonville offense.
17. Ray Rice - After 4 years as a rock-solid RB1, Rice took a precipitous drop last year. He is only 26 years old, though, and had a relatively light workload in 2013. Backup Bernard Pierce is a concern, but Rice deserves the benefit of the doubt, given his track record.
16. Frank Gore - For three years, we’ve been told that Frank Gore is too old and too injury-prone and that his job will be handed over to someone younger. All Frank Gore has done is play 16 games every season, rush for more than 1,100 yards, and keep his starting job. This isn’t spectacular, and it won’t last forever, but at least he’s a sure thing, unlike younger players on this list who are either one-hit wonders or in timeshares.
15. Zac Stacy - Stacy flashed power and wiggle in his breakout rookie season, not to mention some chops catching the ball. It is reasonable to expect him to improve upon last year’s respectable RB2 status. The biggest concern is probably Auburn product Tre Mason, one of the best backs in college football last year, who will eat into Stacy’s carries.
14. Le’Veon Bell - Bell impressed this author last year, who came into the season harboring low expectations for the Big Ten product. His placement on this list is more of a result of the Steelers signing LeGarrette Blount to back him up. Blount was a revelation last year, and if he can carry over any kind of momentum from his days as a Patriot, it’s easy to envision a scenario where Blount cuts into some of Bell's carries.
13. Giovanni Bernard - Bernard has some serious agility. He might be the most elusive back in the game, with all due respect to LeSean McCoy. He makes plays in the passing game and even between the tackles. He may, however, be too small to ever garner the trust of the coaching staff to tote the rock into Pro Bowl numbers.
Only For The Right Price
12. Montee Ball - Ball is high on a lot of draft lists this year, as he should top the competition for meaningful (i.e. goal line) carries in a high-scoring offense. This scouting eye, however, views ball as an average talent, whose fantasy value could be tied to the ticking clock of Peyton Manning’s career.
11. Reggie Bush - Bush is a great fit for Detroit’s multi-dimensional offense, as evidenced by his career high in yards from scrimmage last year. He has never topped 8 touchdowns in a season, though, and he is getting up there in years (28).
10. Alfred Morris - Morris is an incredibly hard runner, who is the bellcow in his offense. He offers virtually no impact in the passing game, unfortunately, so his overall career outlook seems limited.
9. Doug Martin - The Muscle Hamster was the revelation of 2012, but crashed down to Earth in 2013. A regression to the mean should be expected, and since there are so few backs (especially young ones) with his level of job security and ability, Martin ranks in the middle of this tier.
8. DeMarco Murray - The players that sandwich Murray are similar in that they carry the same role on their offense, which is that of a 3-down back, as well as Pro Bowl potential. Murray ranks ahead of Martin because of the upward trend in production as opposed to the downward trend of Martin. Murray ranks behind the next guy because the next guy has done it more often.
7. Arian Foster - Even when Foster was putting up MVP numbers, people questioned whether or not he was merely a system back. Now that the system has been overhauled, we’ll find out. Schematics aside, questions also abound about his health, coming off a back injury. He still tops this tier, however, because of his all-around ability and track record that exceeds those ranked below.
You’ll Need To Blow Us Away
6. Eddie Lacy - Who doesn't love the way he runs? He makes running hard look easy. One needs to be skeptical about placing too much faith in a player after one season, which is why Lacy isn’t higher on this list than others.
5. Marshawn Lynch - He's the guy in the NFL you'd least want to tackle. The tread on the tires is starting to wear, but Lynch is still two years shy of 30.
4. Matt Forte - He was all world through the end of the regular season. He is also in the conversation for best all-around back in the game. His first year in Marc Trestman’s offense showcased his touchdown abilities, but prior to that, he hadn’t cracked 10 total TDs in 5 years.
Untouchables
3. Adrian Peterson - He is the most physically gifted ball-carrier in a generation, putting up reliable numbers for the last seven years with a revolving door at quarterback. He will slow down eventually, but the window is still wide open.
2. Jamaal Charles - Now that he’s the focal point of Andy Reid’s offense, Charles’s explosive abilities have been unleashed upon the league to their fullest potential. He either scored a touchdown or produced 100 yards from scrimmage in every game but two last year.
1. LeSean McCoy - Of the backs in this tier, Shady is the youngest and the most agile in space, so his longevity is of the least concern. He also plays in the most potent offensive system among the group. He could be on the verge of a 2-3 year run as the most valuable commodity in fantasy football.
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
