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John's dynasty fantasy football busts for each NFC team. 16 overvalued dynasty fantasy football players to trade away in 2025.
Sometimes, the things that make fantasy football difficult are extremely simple. This is no exception when finding overvalued players. There are 32 teams in the NFL, and it's very difficult to stay updated with all of them, much less to have a deep understanding of each roster.
It's helpful to look at 16 of them at a time, of course, but that's still four divisions with four teams each. And trying to predict which ones will have slump seasons in 2025 and/or will never meet the value they currently stand at in fantasy football. And this doesn't just include bad players- there are solid players on teams that are just overvalued right now.
It won't be possible to hit on all of these picks, but I'll try to break them all down as best as I can. Hopefully, we can look back on this article and see that great advice was given to Dynasty fantasy managers, but that's what I hope and strive for, not just something I can guarantee. This will be a long one, so buckle up!
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NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - QB Dak Prescott
There's still some hope that the Cowboys' offense will return to their regular-season dominance in fantasy football, and Prescott will be a primary beneficiary. But he will be 32 years old to start the 2025 season, and his rushing ability is largely gone now. We can figure this out by looking at the hamstring injury he suffered that ended his 2024 season prematurely.
Though it wasn't reported well, Prescott actually suffered the precursor to the injury on the previous play, which happened to be the first time he ran for a significant gain on the season, and one of the few times he ran after suffering his broken ankle in 2020.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury pic.twitter.com/EffSPpvdWn
— Dallas Texas TV (@DallasTexasTV) November 4, 2024
On the next play, he tore his hamstring partially off the bone simply by throwing the ball, so the bulk of the ailment occurred on the previous play. He probably won't be running much moving forward. What also doesn't help is that Dallas and Jerry Jones made a mockery of the hiring process by simply choosing offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to be their next head coach.
It seems unlikely they'll have as much success under him as they did with former coach Mike McCarthy, who put together offenses that thrived on beating the hell out of poorly prepared opposing defenses and running up the score. Though Schotty had plenty to do with it, he wasn't the one calling the plays.
It's yet to be seen how well Prescott recovers from his injury. Still, with stars like defensive end Micah Parsons demanding massive paydays and the upcoming WR class being weaker than usual, it doesn't seem like Prescott's situation will improve. Oh, and WR Jonathan Mingo isn't about to do anything.
New York Giants - Wan'Dale Robinson
I'm not dumb enough to slander wide receiver Malik Nabers or running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. They now form the core of what the Giants' offense will be in 2025, and both are excellent talents that are capable of converting big volume into impressive production for New York next season.
But the team's insistence on forcing the ball to WR Wan'Dale Robinson was puzzling at best and just stupid at worst. The team doesn't have a viable WR2 right now, as Nabers is clearly the WR1, and none of the other pass-catchers are great. However, Robinson was highly inefficient, and targeting him on average led to very adverse outcomes for their offensive drives.
Total WR routes and EPA, that Wan’Dale Robinson/Elijah Moore usage is tough pic.twitter.com/aXF3ITPR69
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) February 11, 2025
He ran a ton of routes and was targeted often, but his hilariously inefficient stat lines and overall poor EPA were evident on the stat sheets and the tape. The Giants' head coach, Brian Daboll, tried his best to get him involved, but he rarely moved the chains or did much after the catch.
He wasn't a great prospect out of college to begin with. He's undersized and lacks the speed to win on routes down the field. Robinson is not bad at getting separation on short routes, but his ability after the catch leaves much to be desired. He's not highly elusive or a great tackle-breaker.
Expecting him to break out as a true WR2 to Nabers and start producing better with his targets isn't a good strategy. The Giants would be wise to search for a real second option in free agency or in the 2025 NFL Draft, though pickings are pretty slim right now.
Philadelphia Eagles - WR DeVonta Smith
Some teams will be tough to choose players from. The Eagles are an example of this, because they have a few players that are highly fantasy relevant (QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley, and WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith), and the rest are essentially non-factors.
Smith isn't a highly overrated player, but he's stuck on a run-heavy offense due to the presence of RB Barkley and the elite offensive line, and he will never be the WR1 ahead of Brown, who's the clear top option in the passing game. Add in that Hurts isn't typically a prolific passer, and you have a guy who's just a little overrated in Dynasty right now.
Understand AJ Brown's frustration because:
1. #Eagles are dead last in pass rate over expectation. Jalen Hurts just 25.0 pass attempts per game, by far lowest in NFL.2. Jalen Hurts is not taking any risks, as shown in the below clips. Hurts has just 5 INT and a 1.5% INT rate on… https://t.co/ljcsUa88Jr
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 10, 2024
As fantasy football analyst Adam Levitan, one of the best in the business, states above, Hurts's style of play is extremely risk-averse because it simply can be. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league and just drafted two rookies, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who should be excellent players for years to come.
Also, Hurts is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. So, all the pieces are in place for Smith to be consistently used less than his fantasy managers would like. His place here is a product of his situation, which seems as stable as it is unideal.
Washington Commanders - RB Brian Robinson Jr.
For starters, he doesn't have much upside in the passing game. The team also prefers a committee approach at RB, and when fellow back Austin Ekeler isn't wanted anymore, they'll likely draft or sign a replacement to continue taking significant touches away from Robinson.
A few hot starts to 2023 and 2024 ended with similar slews of injuries and similarly extremely disappointing production. Over his last seven contests, Robinson logged three games with under 5.0 PPR fantasy points. Even if it's not all his fault, he's now played in 12, 15, and 14 games in his first three seasons, so he's not been able to avoid bad injury luck.
I can’t stress this enough…
If you still have any of these running backs on your dynasty rosters, you’re doing something wrong:
- Chase Brown
- Brian Robinson
- JK Dobbins
- Rico Dowdle
- D’Andre Swift
- Trey Benson
- Jonathon Brooks
- Kyren Williams
- Rhamondre Stevenson— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) February 22, 2025
I don't necessarily endorse the above list, but I agree with the inclusion of Robinson. I've written extensively about the incoming rookie class of running backs because it is stacked. You want to get rid of the mediocre-to-decent backs hanging around on Dynasty rosters.
RB volume can evaporate very quickly. If the Commanders decide to get any one of the many underrated RBs with elite upside in this draft, and chances are good that they will, we could see Robinson relegated to an RB2 role rather than being the RB1. If that rookie back has a good pass-catching upside, BRob's volume could seriously suffer.
So you should probably sell him off.
NFC North
Chicago Bears - WR Rome Odunze
This will be a controversial take, sure. I don't intend to say that Odunze won't improve in his second year in the league, nor that new head coach Ben Johnson won't take this offense to another level in his first year as head coach. But Odunze's rookie season raises at least a few red flags that shouldn't be ignored.
He wasn't very efficient, and while that can be blamed on quarterback Caleb Williams' inability to throw a catchable ball and former OC Shane Waldron's complete incompetency, it's also important to note that Odunze didn't separate particularly well, given the hype he entered the league with, at least. It turns out that beating up on a bunch of trash PAC-12 defensive backs who will never sniff an NFL roster isn't very impressive.
Average separation scores (every route is graded) for the 2024 rookie WR class:
🔥 Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. look elite
📈 Jalen McMillan finished as WR8 and was WR2 in the second-half of the season
😱 Ghastly stuff for Rome Odunze and Keon Coleman… https://t.co/qqPPcSJLCq pic.twitter.com/QzCzycZrCU— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) January 6, 2025
Peeling back the layers of ugly seasons without just excusing everything away because it doesn't fit the consensus narrative is never a good idea. Odunze is being valued like he'll be a good WR1 someday, but his film (not the highlights, all the film) and the numbers don't really back it up.
His value suggest that Williams will become a great QB and Odunze will become a great receiver. I'm not convinced that Odunze will ever surpass fellow WR DJ Moore on the depth chart, or that he'll ever be a traditional "X" receiver.
Interestingly, many who see him as an elite option want him to become primarily used in the slot. That actually presents a different angle. IF he ends up running the majority of his routes from the slot, he could have some great seasons. But that's a big if.
Detroit Lions - QB Jared Goff
You should just take a look at Goff's numbers with the Lions before Ben Johnson arrived. Sure, he has a great offensive line, excellent receiving weapons in wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, tight end Sam LaPorta, and a good run game to support him.
But Goff's monstrously bad games are seriously concerning, and Johnson was one of the best offensive minds in the league last season. He's taken his talents elsewhere, and it's hard to see the offense as a whole not taking a step back due to his departure.
JARED MVP GOFF VS COLTS THREAD
Play 1: Great throw by Goff under INTENSE pressure just bad height genetics by Sam Laporta pic.twitter.com/KCUk41WumR
— Dan (@Vikesfan2777) November 26, 2024
Goff has been absolutely carried his entire career by the players around him and the offensive minds he's had the fortunate chance to serve under. He is terrible under pressure, so any injuries along the offensive line are also a major risk factor for his production to decline.
Trade him away with a plus for someone like J.J. McCarthy or Trevor Lawrence. They're not on this list (the NFC or AFC version), and they have much better future prospects in case disaster strikes their teams.
Green Bay Packers - WR Jayden Reed
The simple fact of the matter is that Reed sucks against man coverage. Clips of him picking up a ton of yards after the catch, succeeding on gadget plays, and dicing up zone defensive assignments can be easily spliced together with videos of him just getting stymied in 1-on-1s with cornerbacks.
I think if Jayden Reed can improve the snap in his routes, he CAN be a legit WR1.
For a slot WR, he has an usually hard time beating man coverage even with a two-way go at times.
He has the twitch to do it though.
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) January 14, 2025
This is made worse by the fact that he plays in the slot. Struggling against slot cornerbacks, who are generally less athletic (and paid less) than outside corners, is seriously concerning. Philosophically, it doesn't make much sense to praise head coach Matt LaFleur while simultaneously decrying his usage of Reed. There was a reason he and the team's other receivers were one big committee last season.
Reed isn't great against man coverage, Dontayvion Wicks has bricks for hands, Christian Watson can't stay healthy, and Romeo Doubs is just alright. The team lacks a WR1, and it won't be Reed, who doesn't even play in any formations that feature 12 personnel.
Reed only saw the field when the team had three receivers on the field. Otherwise, it was Doubs and either Watson or Wicks playing on the outside when the team only had two wideouts. That's not good. Reed isn't a great blocker, and maybe LaFleur is considering that.
Packers signing WR Mecole Hardman to one-year deal. (via @TomPelissero, @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/cXjvXuJTcJ
— NFL (@NFL) March 18, 2025
It was super, super cool when Reed finally got some playing time in 2WR sets when Watson was injured, right? Guess what? LaFleur still doesn't want that to happen, and prefers to keep him on the field precisely zero percent in those personnel groupings. Hardman will basically take over Watson's role, I imagine. Sell Reed.
Minnesota Vikings - Aaron Jones
There isn't much reason to keep Jones for any longer in Dynasty. While he had a 1,500-yard-from-scrimage season in 2024, the influx of RB talent in the 2025 NFL Draft will likely cause Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell and the team's management to search for help at the position.
Jones is also 30 and will turn 31 late in the 2025 season and has a concerning history of injuries. He's seemingly always playing through one or more ailments, and they often knock him out of his games, causing him to put up week-losing numbers.
Aaron Jones gets stripped at the goal line. pic.twitter.com/88ixNTC0mL
— vikesinsider (@vikesinsider) November 24, 2024
His ineffectiveness at the goal line wasn't great. His injury history shows that he's a prime candidate for a workload reduction. The team likely wants to cut back on his touches, allowing him to operate more efficiently and avoid the problems he's had with getting hurt.
When an older back begins losing volume, his fantasy value typically sinks quickly. You don't want to be on the wrong side of that. What's a perfect recipe for an older back losing volume? His team traded a draft pick for a much younger, underrated running back who showed flashes of excellent play and performs better in the run schemes the coaching staff prefers to implement.
On outside zone run schemes in 2024, which the Vikings ran the 7th most of last year (via @FantasyPtsData):
Yards per carry
+ Aaron Jones: 4.38
+ Jordan Mason: 5.86Missed tackles forced per attempt
+ Aaron Jones: 0.14
+ Jordan Mason: 0.29Explosive rush rate
+ Aaron Jones:… https://t.co/qvA9A2fYfC— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 16, 2025
Mason is better than Jones as a runner. Simple stuff. Sell Jones now.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - TE Kyle Pitts
The fact that we're still having this conversation no matter how much Pitts disappoints us is insane. It's funny to look back on how terrible it was of Atlanta to choose him over wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. In fact, it's absolutely beyond hysterical.
The capital Pitts was selected with and his rookie year, in which he eclipsed 1,000 yards and people attributed that to him being elite rather than admitting that QB Matt Ryan was still pretty good, still has people clinging to hope that he'll magically morph into an elite option and their trust in him will be vindicated.
Kyle Pitts is one of the worst busts in NFL history.
This is why interceptions need to be a receiver stat… this is NOT Penix’s fault pic.twitter.com/uqL6GBHqUA
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) December 22, 2024
He doesn't play with good effort, regularly drops great passes, isn't physical enough, isn't a great route-runner currently, gets jammed and stuffed by cornerbacks much smaller than he is, and gives up at times. Some players can't handle the mental aspect of being a bust or dealing with poor quarterback play, even if it's intermittent.
“Why is Kyle Pitts bad” pic.twitter.com/mf1buYrvSl
— FF Mike Kash (@FFMikeKash) September 25, 2023
There are more reasons why he's not good, and it's doubtful he'll fix them all. In addition, he's been significantly less explosive after his knee injury in 2022. Knee issues sometimes never heal fully, and players who suffer them sometimes never return to their old selves.
It's entirely possible that this is happening with Pitts as well. If it is, it would make the hope that he'll return to form 100 percent misplaced. It probably won't happen. You still have a chance to sell him off for a solid price to someone with a malfunctioning brain, so take it.
Carolina Panthers - QB Bryce Young
A couple of games against terrible competition can work wonders for the Dynasty Fantasy value of a player drafted with high capital but disappointed in their career. Young got to face the sans-Jaylen Watson Kansas City Chiefs, who were terrible without their CB2, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice, who had one of the worse pass defenses in football, and the Atlanta Falcons, who also had a terrible secondary.
Young is in the NFC South, of course, so he'll get to face the Falcons and Bucs twice per year, but it's more important that we are basing what we believe he'll become on a sample size of games where he faced terrible pass defenses. The potential for disaster against good teams is still omnipresent.
Bryce Young throws an interception on his first pass attempt pic.twitter.com/Xw9acCMGDz
— Bench Warmer Banter (@bwb_sports) September 8, 2024
Young's ceiling, thought to be more consistent with his elite draft capital, is likely significantly lower than people expect. At best, we should expect an average quarterback. His production in the back half of the season is misleading and partially buoyed by the five rushing touchdowns he logged in his last six games.
That pace won't be consistent for him for a whole season. There aren't many people who wouldn't be shocked if he rushed for 14 touchdowns next season. He doesn't have the size to convince his coaches to use him that way, and hardly any QBs get that much production on the ground, save for Hurts.
Young's situation isn't great, either. The offensive line played reasonably in pass protection in 2024, but if wide receiver Xavier Legette doesn't turn into an elite option, Carolina will once again need to invest a premium pick in a wideout. This year's rookies aren't the most inspiring group, either. Young is probably worth more in a trade than he is on your roster.
New Orleans Saints - WR Chris Olave
The consensus sentiment is still that Olave will develop into an elite WR1... some day. It looks like that day will never come, though. If you don't believe me, the presence of fellow wideout Rashid Shaheed should convince you. Looking at his target share and first-read target share numbers and his tape is concerning for Olave's long-term prospects.
Shaheed was targeted 41 times in his first six games of the season before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Olave earned just 29, though he hardly played in Week 6 due to a concussion. Still, Olave was targeted more than seven times just once while Shaheed was healthy and playing.
Rashid Shaheed's weekly target shares: 20.8%, 26.6%, 21.7%, 30.5%, 28.1%.
Saints WR1.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 8, 2024
Shaheed was the team's WR1 before his injury. It will likely stay that way in 2025, as the quarterback will still be Derek Carr, who clearly preferred to look first Shaheed's way and throw it his way as well. The first-read target share difference is even more stark. Carr's favorite WR was Shaheed.
Olave suffered not one but two major concussions in 2024, the second of which landed him on injured reserve and knocked him out of action for the rest of the season. Olave has now suffered five documented concussions in his career. That's seriously worrying.
Prayers: #Saints WR Chris Olave is down on the field after taking a hit to the head.
He is being stretchered off of the field.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 3, 2024
There's a nonzero chance he becomes the poster boy for brain trauma in the NFL in 2025. He probably already should have been in 2024, were it not for Tua Tagovailoa's struggles with those injuries. Olave plays a position that takes more big hits from players at high velocities.
A concussion in 2025 could knock Olave out for another extended period. You can literally trade him for Shaheed and a draft pick and select a running back like RJ Harvey. Do that! Seriously!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Chris Godwin
To get this out of the way first, Godwin is an excellent receiver. But let me present a scenario to you- a player is 28 years old, coming off a serious broken ankle injury, and is likely to have a dip in production in 2025. That would surprise no one. Yet his Dynasty value doesn't seem to match that sentiment.
It doesn't make much sense not to move him now, wait for his value to dip, then try to trade back for him, or just sit on the players and/or picks you got for him. In addition, former Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen left, so even if Godwin re-signs with the team, the entire offense should take at least a small ding.
Jalen McMillan played in 8 games after Chris Godwin tore his ACL
McMillan's 17-game pace after Godwin's injury
91 targets
66 receptions
822 yards
15 TDsMike Evans is 31
Chris Godwin is a free agentMcMillan is a dynasty BUY
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) February 5, 2025
And if WR Jalen McMillan was truly breaking out toward the end of the 2024 season, the targets would be more diluted. Additionally, Coen's schemes had Godwin producing better than he had at any point in his career, and it's unclear if he'll be used the same way moving forward. Considering all these factors, you're probably better off with what you can get for him in a trade than with keeping him.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr.
While it certainly doesn't feel great to spend such a high pick (the first overall pick to be exact) in rookie drafts on a player that turns out to have a bust season in their first year, the good thing is that because people once thought so highly of him, you can still trade him away for a solid haul.
The problem with Harrison is that he just doesn't have the burst and athleticism to reach the ceiling people think he can reach. Harrison is not a good NFL wide receiver on vertical-breaking routes, and that will cap his ceiling. He's the second priority pass-catcher behind tight end Trey McBride on his own team.
Marvin Harrison, Jr.
This was defended before Harrison could encounter the target,
Still, note the sub-optimal attack he's using. It's a bad habit. pic.twitter.com/QJpfWhzSsm
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2024
There are other areas of his game that are lackluster, most perplexingly so, his ineffectiveness at making contested catches. He was mostly unable to hang on to passes through contact, and the drop issues he had at Ohio State carried over to the NFL.
This isn't to say he won't be a good WR in the NFL, but you can get quite a haul for him still. But the quarterback situation isn't great. QB Kyler Murray was widely criticized for his ineffectiveness and preferred McBride heavily. And in the games other than Harrison's domination of the terrible Los Angeles Rams secondary, he averaged under 48 yards and less than four catches per game.
McBride is the guy to own in this offense, and in PPR scoring formats, he's elite. We don't hate trading Harrison for him straight up.
Los Angeles Rams - RB Kyren Williams
At this point I've written about him a hundred times, so hopefully I can keep this short. Williams yards per carry plummeted from 5.0 in 2023 to 4.1 in 2024. The offensive line that gave him wide-open rushing lanes on almost all of his big runs, or at least forced defenders into positions where it was impossible to tackle him, wasn't as good in 2024.
He's completely dependent on hogging all the backfield volume and all the short-yardage and goal-line touches. If even a decent percentage of those start going to back up Blake Corum, there will be trouble. And if QB Matthew Stafford departs, the whole offense will likely collapse.
Kyren Williams broke my heart on January 19th 2025.. 💔❤️🩹
— JV8 DROY SzN 😤 (@RicflairsFather) February 16, 2025
Then there's the fumbling issue. To this point, Rams head coach Sean McVay has completely ignored it and continued to give Williams massive volume. I'm not saying KW will have a bad season in 2025, but it seems like a reckoning is coming. You generally want to hang on to RBs who are highly efficient and don't need all the good touches to be good fantasy scorers.
Williams is very valuable in Dynasty right now. You can get a nice haul for him.
San Francisco 49ers - WR Brandon Aiyuk
Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who's recovering from his knee injury, will likely have a down year in 2025, as he did in 2024. That was probably because he missed a lot of training camp and wasn't in sync with his quarterback, Brock Purdy. Aiyuk tore both his ACL and MCL and damaged his meniscus in Week 7. That will be a tough recovery to make.
#49ers Brandon Aiyuk gave a one week post ACL tear update on his YouTube
Aiyuk said he has walked a little but has been tentative to fully weight bear at this time.
Long road to recovery ahead 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/vDlP3Or6k2
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) October 28, 2024
The meniscus damage wasn't as widely reported as the other two injuries, but Aiyuk says it himself in the above update he posted one week after his injury. He had an excellent season in 2023 as the clear WR1 for the team. The problem is that he'll probably never get the targets he needs to ascend to elite fantasy football WR1 status because of the offense he's in and because of the other pass-catchers around him.
TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey, and WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings present a gauntlet of target competition. That's a bad thing. Multi-ligament knee injuries can destroy the careers of players at all positions. I'd be fine with trading Aiyuk for Pearsall and picks right now.
Seattle Seahawks - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Being overrated doesn't always mean being a bad player. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a nice breakout season in 2024, logging 100 catches on 137 targets for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. But DK Metcalf was outpacing him in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns by a significant margin before he got injured. Then, when he came back, he looked nothing like his old self.
Metcalf was on an impressive pace to easily finish as a top-10 wideout. Were it not for the injury, he probably would have. In the two games Metcalf missed, JSN logged 13 catches for 249 yards and two touchdowns. The injury had a huge impact on his stats, and thus his currently perceived value. One of the most important things I preach is to not let injuries change your perception of players too much, and try to think about what would have happened if the aliments hadn't struck.
Breaking: Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf — who left Sunday’s win over Atlanta with a knee injury — suffered a Grade 1 sprained MCL and now will be considered “week to week”, sources tell @adamschefter. pic.twitter.com/dI0jd16M3v
— ESPN (@espn) October 21, 2024
Also, former Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was fired and replaced with former Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Grubb far too often abandoned the run game in favor of calling a ton of passes. That won't fly anymore.
2024 Pass Rate Over Expected when leading & trailing pic.twitter.com/Y3dO4G7eHU
— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) October 16, 2024
Kubiak ran the ball way more than Grubb did. There won't be as many passes, which will hurt Smith-Njigba's production unless it's offset by a lot more yardage.
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