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Yasiel Puig signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2020 but due to having COVID, the signing never went through and he never got his chance to play. Now we enter 2021 and we get to play this waiting game again as we hope to see him sign sooner rather than later. We tend to look heavily into previous seasons anyway as 2020 was shortened but in Puig's case it was nonexistent. This leaves us with 2019 as the most recent data set to go off of and it was actually more interesting than most may have realized.
Puig had a pretty typical year with his 2019 stat line. He put up 24 home runs, 19 stolen bases and a triple slash of .267/ .327/ .458. If it weren’t for the steals, he would’ve had a lackluster final line. This was his third straight season hitting 23 or more home runs with at least 15 steals. This skill set is very valuable in today's fantasy landscape but entering his age 30 season, having missed the 2020 season and not on a team as of now, there are real concerns on what to expect for 2021.
With that said, this is the perfect player to dive into.
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Plate Discipline
When looking at the surface stats, the first notable changes are the walk and strikeout rates in 2019. The strikeout rate of 21.8% was the highest it has been since 2013. That was his rookie year! Even so, that was still league average. The walk rate also went in the wrong direction. At 7.2%, it is the lowest it has been since 2016. Yasiel Puig was more aggressive in 2019 which explains these changes.
Unfortunately, the added aggression came with swing-and-miss tendencies. The first pitch swing rate increased 7.6 points to 40.6% and the whiff rate followed a similar trend as it jumped up 4.1 points to 28.2%. Not only did these both increase from 2018 to 2019 but both of these were the highest they have been since 2016.
| Year | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% |
| 2013 | 52.9% | 79.2% | 67.6% | 37.3% |
| 2014 | 59.0% | 84.3% | 74.7% | 39.1% |
| 2015 | 62.8% | 80.1% | 73.8% | 42.5% |
| 2016 | 56.3% | 82.4% | 74.0% | 45.5% |
| 2017 | 59.8% | 86.9% | 76.9% | 42.0% |
| 2018 | 59.0% | 89.8% | 78.1% | 41.3% |
| 2019 | 59.3% | 83.2% | 74.2% | 42.1% |
| 2020 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
The swing-and-miss continued to show in his decline in contact rates. Puig's Z-Contact rate dropped 6.5% and his overall contact rate fell 3.9% as well. That is a typical give-and-take when you get more aggressive at the plate. Sure, the O-Contact% technically rose by 0.3 points from 2018, but that is not great considering the increase in the swing rate outside the zone. Essentially, the increase in contact outside the zone came from the quantity of swings verse the quality of swings.
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | SwStr% | Whiff% |
| 2013 | 37.6% | 79.6% | 53.2% | 17.0% | NA |
| 2014 | 29.6% | 74.8% | 47.3% | 11.9% | NA |
| 2015 | 33.7% | 79.4% | 53.1% | 13.9% | 27.7 |
| 2016 | 30.6% | 77.2% | 51.8% | 13.5% | 28.4 |
| 2017 | 29.3% | 69.5% | 46.2% | 10.6% | 24.7 |
| 2018 | 31.1% | 71.5% | 47.8% | 10.5% | 24.1 |
| 2019 | 34.2% | 77.8% | 52.6% | 13.6% | 28.2 |
| 2020 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
The O-Swing% of 34.2% was the highest its been since 2013. Could he have been pressing? When a player is playing for a contract it could cause them to try a bit more. The SwStr% of 13.6% was also the highest its been since 2015. We also saw an overall swing rate increase across the board. The Z-Swing% of 77.8% and Swing% of 52.6% were both the highest they’ve been since 2015.
Advanced Stats
| Year | BB% | K% | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| 2013 | 8.3% | 22.5% | 22.5% | .398 | 160 |
| 2014 | 10.5% | 19.4% | .185 | .379 | 148 |
| 2015 | 8.4% | 21.2% | .181 | .328 | 111 |
| 2016 | 6.5% | 20.1% | .153 | .320 | 101 |
| 2017 | 11.2% | 17.5% | .224 | .349 | 117 |
| 2018 | 8.1% | 19.6% | .227 | .349 | 123 |
| 2019 | 7.2% | 21.8% | .191 | .330 | 101 |
| 2020 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Yasiel Puig posted a wOBA of .330, ISO of .191 and a wRC+ of 101. All of which were the lowest they’ve been since 2016. The silver lining is all these stats are still just above league average. So even in a down year, in terms of peripherals, he still performed better than average. Also, the BABIP was the best it has been since 2016. Coming in at .308 isn’t amazing but might be sustainable going forward, especially if he made other changes that could back up the BABIP gains.
Batted Ball Data
| Year | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB |
| 2013 | 19.1% | 50.2% | 30.7% | 10.3% | 21.8% |
| 2014 | 14.8% | 51.7% | 33.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% |
| 2015 | 17.1% | 44.2% | 38.7% | 8.3% | 13.1% |
| 2016 | 16.4% | 48.5% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 12.0% |
| 2017 | 16.1% | 48.3% | 35.6% | 15.3% | 19.4% |
| 2018 | 21.3% | 42.6% | 36.1% | 17.4% | 20.0% |
| 2019 | 21.2% | 38.1% | 40.7% | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| 2020 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
You can see the dip in GB% to a career-best mark of 38.1% followed by a career-best FB% of 40.7%. Puig managed to do so while maintaining a solid 21.2% LD rate. This profile should lend itself to better power production. What may have offset the potential gain in power was the decline in pull rate.
| Year | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
| 2013 | 43.1% | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| 2014 | 40.0% | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| 2015 | 35.5% | 37.8% | 26.7% |
| 2016 | 43.0% | 34.2% | 22.8% |
| 2017 | 46.5% | 30.4% | 23.0% |
| 2018 | 41.9% | 35.0% | 23.1% |
| 2019 | 36.2% | 34.3% | 29.6% |
| 2020 | NA | NA | NA |
If you see the fly ball rate increase like it did, you typically see hitters follow that up with pulling the ball more. This is what helps provide the uptick in power. However, with Puig pulling the ball a career-low 36.2% of the time, the power spike that could have taken place simply did not. He ultimately became an all-fields hitter. He hit for 29.6% or more to all fields. That 29.6% to opposite field was a career-best. This all-fields approach could help explain the gain in BABIP. Not to mention the increase of his infield hit percentage, or IFH%, also assists the BABIP gains.
Something else worth mentioning is the increase in fly balls occurred while the infield fly ball rate, or IFFB%, dropped to 12.7%. That is 4.5 points lower than 2018 and the lowest we have seen since 2015.
2019 First and Second Half Splits
The splits are not cut and dry for Yasiel Puig. He went from a very favorable hitters park in Great American Ball Park and went over to a more neutral park in Cleveland after being traded midseason. Let’s start with just the first half compared to the second half.
| Half | HR | SB | BA | OPS | BABIP | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| 1st | 20 | 13 | .257 | .797 | .272 | .237 | .329 | 99 |
| 2nd | 4 | 6 | .279 | .769 | .349 | .135 | .332 | 102 |
There are a lot to unpack here. Most notably, Puig had 20 first-half home runs and only four second-half home runs. The triple-slash also tells a different story as it appears he transitioned into less of a power first hitter and more into a contact-oriented hitter. He paired that with a more patient approach at the plate with the K% dropping from 22.5% in the first half to 20.9% in the second half as well as the walk rate improving from 5.5% in the first half to 9.2% in the second half. A few other notable gains are the wRC+. It took him from 99 to 102, as well as a three-point gain in wOBA and 77 points gained in BABIP.
Plate Discipline Splits
| Half | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | SwStr% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% |
| 1st | 38.0% | 79.3% | 55.8% | 15.3% | 56.4% | 82.9% | 72.6% |
| 2nd | 30.3% | 76.1% | 49.2% | 11.8% | 63.1% | 83.4% | 76.1% |
| League Avg. | 31.6% | 68.5% | 47.0% | 11.2% | 67.2% | 84.9% | 76.2% |
In the second half, he was far more patient at the plate and made a lot more contact and it makes sense as Puig made improvements across the board.
- O-Swing% improved 7.7%
- Swing rate decreased 6.6%.
- O-Contact% increased 6.7%
- Z-Contact% increased 0.5%
- Contact% increased 3.5%
- SwStr% improved 3.5%
Batted Ball Data
| Half | GB% | LD% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
| 1H | 32.8% | 21.1% | 46.1% | 13.1% | 18.7% | 33.5% | 41.2% | 25.3% |
| 2H | 44.6% | 21.2% | 34.2% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 39.4% | 25.9% | 34.7% |
| League Avg. | 42.9% | 21.4% | 35.7% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 40.7% | 34.2% | 25.1% |
The increase in GB% is not what you typically want to see, but it could have assisted in the increase in BABIP due to putting more balls in play likely at the expense of pop-ups and fly outs. You can see the drop in the IFFB%. It dropped a full point to 12.1%.
In the first half we saw Puig hit up the middle 41.2% of the time and then in the second half, we saw this change. Puig started pulling the ball more as well as putting it to opposite field more while getting away from putting it up the middle. The pull rate went up 5.9% and oppo% increased 9.3%. This ultimately took away from his Cent% as it dropped from 41.2% to 25.9%. Again, these two halves are a night and day difference and it is interesting to think that these teams had him implement different approaches possibly.
Statcast Data
Yasiel Puig is at or above average in most offensive categories. He stands out mostly in average exit velocity which was in the 67th percentile, his barrel rate in the 66th percentile and sprint speed which was in the 79th percentile. Puig also had an average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls of 94.1 MPH. In 2019, that was ahead of names like Michael Conforto, Nick Castellanos and Austin Riley.
Getting back to what could have helped cause the changes in production in the two halves was also what sprung the idea for this article.
The average launch angle was 13.8 degrees on the season. This was a career-high mark as a whole. However, when you see the highs and lows of it, literally, you can see this could be one of the bigger reasons for the drop in power production in the second half. It may have been a conscious change in the profile. There was not a swing change noted or mentioned either, so could it have been fatigue? Did Cleveland make some changes?
Unfortunately, video did not show much, if any, change in the swing or stance and there were no articles or information shared on a change in approach from the various attempts of locating said information. It's hard to tell but it is interesting and only time will tell if this approach will stick entering 2021 or if whatever teams he lands with gets him back to the more aggressive, power-first version of himself.
2021 Outlook
Yasiel Puig is a free agent entering 2021 with a new agent and he appears to be in great shape. He is posting workout videos to social media and looks to be in great shape.
He is working out and staying in baseball shape so after missing the abbreviated 2020 season, there is no reason to think he cannot return to being the player we have come to know him to be for our fantasy teams (and hopefully a real team).
Puig's going rate seems about right (current ADP of 246.87 per NFBC) considering not having a team to call home and missing 2020. If he remains unsigned through the end of January, we will adjust our thinking of the price of course.
Drafter beware. There is a lot of risk without Puig having a team to call home It is easier to take on the risk in shallower formats but if you play in deeper leagues, he becomes far riskier and is someone you should be willing to pass on for safer options in that range.
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