RADIO
For the first time in four years, Yahoo's standard point scoring has remained the same in back-to-back seasons - It's a celebration, pitches! That's right, folks; the scoring system on Yahoo in 2023 looks to be the exact same as in 2022. Huge if true.
And it is true! Well, at least it is as of 1:35 pm CST, March 27th of 2023 - I can make no promises for tomorrow. But for now, the scoring foundation of our Yahoo Points strategies is built on something more solid than sand, and damn does it feel good. Theoretically, this makes the game more enjoyable because the more you can prepare, the more set up for success you'll be. Success begets more fun, which in turn begets more people loving baseball. And this brings us to our most begetimatous (totally a word) goal - me being able to badger more strangers about baseball without the authorities being called.
Unfortunately, the Yahoo game that has come back unchanged is still one that involves ridiculously high and unbalanced scoring, with the path to proper player valuation as murky as ever. Okay, hitters may outscore starting pitchers by double (who in turn double up RPs) but at least we're not still using decimal point scoring that makes everything harder to keep track of, right?... Sigh. All we had to do, people, was name me Points Czar and all these problems would already have been washed away by a benevolent wave of dictatorial power. Is it really that big of a deal?
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Yahoo H2H Points Standard League Overview
League Size: Max of 12 teams in public leagues
Hitting Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT, UT
Pitching Roster: SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P
Standard Scoring:
| Hitter Event | Points | Pitcher Event | Points |
| 1B | 2.6 | IP | 3 |
| 2B | 5.2 | Win | 8 |
| 3B | 7.8 | SV | 8 |
| HR | 10.4 | Loss | 0 |
| Run | 1.9 | K | 3 |
| RBI | 1.9 | ER | -3 |
| SB | 4.2 | HA | -1.3 |
| BB | 2.6 | BB | -1.3 |
| K | 0 | HBP | -1.3 |
This is the most current Yahoo scoring system but as alluded to earlier, there have been some mighty upheavals in their standard scoring. For once, there was an old system, used since inception up through the 2020 season.
Yahoo Scoring 2.0
But in 2021, the corporation spoke - LET THERE BE SYNERGY!
| Yahoo! Batters | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | HBP |
| Pre-2021 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Redux #1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Yahoo! Pitchers | IP | W | SV | SO | BB | H | ER | HBP |
| Pre-2020 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Redux #1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -1.3 |
And as they spoke, so did it happen; without warning, explanation, or even acknowledgment, the Yahoo scoring world was turned upside down. But someone noticed - I mean, besides the thousands of people who logged into their leagues and couldn't have helped but notice their players now being projected as scoring hundreds of more points than they had in the past.
No, I talk of the other someone who just happened to be in the middle of writing his first Yahoo Points League Primer when the change first happened. And by noticed, I mean he thought he had accidentally taken crazy pills and just hallucinated the scoring setting that he'd been writing about just a day prior.
Luckily for our intrepid hero, cached web pages exist and he was able to see he wasn't crazy. And I had...questions.
Like...why scoring had been so upended as to totally erase any previous experience gained from playing under the old system and making veteran players basically start from scratch? Or make scoring so impossibly high (and with decimals!) as to make it virtually impossible to be watching a game (and the bottom line scroll) and actually be able to roughly estimate how your players were doing? And, and, and...A bunch of other questions. But it all boiled down to a central quibble about game-making philosophy:
Why did you make your game more complicated (worse) for the players that game makers should be most focused on?
Credit to the corporation - they did, at least, offer our hero some answers via a raven named email; the changes were brought about by a synergistic hammer of doom, with the point scoring being changed to be more in line with the scoring in their daily fantasy offerings. I suppose the thinking went that maybe if we change our H2H point scoring to be like our DFS games, more of them will play/give us more money. Huzzah for more cash to the coffers!
Unfortunately, not much care seemed to be given to how this scoring would affect player values - it seemed to be more of a wand wave: "Now you score this and you score this and who cares because they're just H2H point players". Points for honesty - but none for the game-making. The new scoring was more complicated, harder to track, and made players harder to value, with the latter being doubled by the fact of any previous experience in valuing players would have to be thrown away. Boo, I say. Boo.
Yahoo Scoring 2.5 - Present and Future(?)
But after all of that, the 2022 season again brought changes! Not as monumental as the great change but impactful nonetheless. And again, credit must be given where due; the named Corporation had at least contemplated some of the complaints our hero had outlined in his return raven from the season before and had notified him in advance of this most recent shift (RE: Here, we changed some things - I hope that makes you happy enough to shut up now?).
No, it did not - but I did award partial credit for trying. IE at least pitchers weren't being outscored by a 3:1 margin anymore. Hitter scoring was left the same but pitchers now got a points pump-up to try and level the field a bit more. To the Redux #2!
| Yahoo! Pitchers | IP | W | SV | SO | BB | H | ER | HBP |
| Pre-2020 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Redux #1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -1.3 |
| Current | 3 | 8 | 8 | 3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -1.3 |
Well, lookie there. Double the points for Wins and Saves, and an extra point per strikeout - that's gotta close the gap, right? Sure, I guess? They might have increased those categories but they also increased the penalties for walks, hits, and earned runs.
To get a quick impression of how much the scoring has changed, let's look at Corbin Burnes, who was the #1 point scorer among starting pitchers in 2022. Here is how his 2022 numbers would've scored under each of the three scoring systems, as well as where those points would've ranked him among all players (hitters and pitchers).
| Yahoo Scoring | Total Points | Overall Points Rank |
| Before 2021 | 715 | #3 |
| 2021 | 803 | #135 |
| 2022/Current | 950 | #84 |
Umm, yea-aaah. That's a little different. Now, keep in mind, we're dealing with raw point scoring, not overall values that are adjusted for positions. But yes, you're reading that right; the highest-scoring pitcher in 2022 scored fewer points than 83 hitters.
Speaking of hitters, let's switch over to Pete Alonso, who finished as the #2 point scorer among hitters in 2022. We're not going to use the #1 scorer, Aaron Judge, because the gap between him and everyone else (regardless of position) in his record-breaking season, is so massive. So, whatcha think, Pete?
| Yahoo Scoring | Total Points | Overall Points Rank |
| Before 2021 | 703 | 4 |
| 2021 | 1428 | 5 |
| 2022/Current | 1428 | 5 |
Where Alonso (and other hitters) ranks under the new system (which again, was the same as it was during the first big change) didn't much change. But the scoring...Did. As in, it more than doubled. As in, hitter points getting with more NOS than Dominic Torretto. And not that basic NOS from LA - I'm talking about that Cuban NOS that once turned an old jalopy into a literal missile.
The good news is that for the first time since 2020, the scoring system remains the same as it was the year before. The bad news is that it's still basically pointless to compare hitters vs pitchers without doing a dollar valuation. IE. Good luck ballparking the differences considering Andrew McCutchen scored three more points than Corbin Burnes in 2022, but was only #161 in dollar values, compared to Burnes at #18.
Thanks, Yahoo! - Serious, I am not.
Hitter Scoring System Notes
It can't be said enough; a hitter's point-scoring profile is just as, if not more so, important than a player's talent. If a skill set doesn't translate well to a scoring system (even if it's valuable in another system or in roto), it's hard for a player to change their value without a major change to their profile.
- In a world of over-the-top scoring, accumulation and edge-finding is king. But while knowledge of a hitter's scoring profile is as important as always, the combinations of skills that bring good and bad fortune aren't nearly as linear as it is on ESPN or other platforms. A high OBP doesn't automatically mean success, nor does a big strikeout rate portend failure, as Yahoo's speedball-injected scoring makes judging each player's value a true "case-by-case" situation. To the mystery players!
So, who scored more points in 2022?
Player A: 654 PA/.401 OBP/.406 wOBA/15% K%
Player B: 647 PA/.300 OBP/.324 wOBA/29% K%
If you guessed the seemingly obvious answer of Player A (aka Juan Soto) over Player B (aka Adolis Garcia), congratulations! The real question, though, is how much did Soto outscore Garcia by? Umm, one. As in, a 100-point OBP advantage and half the strikeout rate allowed Soto to score exactly one more point than Garcia. As I was saying; case by case.
- It's more important than ever to understand a player's per-PA scoring (along with their projected playing time), as Yahoo's multiple scoring changes over the past few years have rendered their historical points scored totally and utterly moot. IE players score hundreds more points now compared to pre-2021. Luckily, 'ol Nick has retrofitted the lot, translating old stats to the new scoring to see whose per-PA rates have stayed steady and which have declined. Once you have a handle on players' expected scoring rates, it's just a matter of prognosticating whether they'll reach enough PAs to be worth the cost.
- To understand a player's scoring rate and find the truth in any year-to-year discrepancies, you must go deeper than just the raw per-PA numbers and get to the bottom of events that drove the changes and whether they are things more directly in a hitter's control.
Hitting Strategy for Yahoo H2H Leagues
Picking hitter winners in points isn't voodoo, it's just an exercise in the power of knowledge. The more you know, and all that. And any RotoBaller premium subscriber (promo code: NOTBURT) can utilize our Custom Point Rankings service and will go into their draft with something like the below, while their opponents try to fumble about without any of the mystic secrets you'll be rolling with.
Using Yahoo ADP and ATC projections, here are the first 20 hitters being drafted - AKA probably don't draft Julio Rodriguez in the top-five:
For general hitter evaluation, remember that things have been greatly simplified regarding what is scored; 2.6 points per base (walks and hits), 4.2 points per SB, and 1.9 points per R/RBI. So, a two-run home run would be worth 18 points, a single and a steal would be 6.8 points, etc. And unlike ESPN and CBS, there are no penalties for striking out, nor any for being caught stealing. M.O.A.R. spells points to the moon!
Looking at what player profiles return value, relative to how they would rate on other platforms, or how they are valued in roto leagues, stolen bases will again be a big distorted. In other words, if a big part of your fantasy profile comes from speed, you probably aren't worth as much on Yahoo. It's not as bad as on ESPN points, where a stolen base is only worth 1 point, or as much as a single, with the 4.6 points you get on Yahoo being worth all much as a double (5.2 points). But it's also not as good as on CBS and Fantrax, where you're even-steven with a double at 2 points per SB.
In terms of the hitter profiles to target, the name of the game is PAs and bags. With no negative points to be found, top-of-the-order guys will always get a boost just from the extra PAs they'll pick up relative to players down the order. Of course, this applies to great players on great offenses but it'll also apply to mediocre players on mediocre teams, turning ones with good OBPs but little to nothing else in the counting department, into playable assets. I'm looking at you, Carlos Santana.
But even though strikeouts aren't penalized, that doesn't mean that low-K guys won't bring a lot of extra value to a profile. Remember, fewer strikeouts translate to more balls in play or more walks. AKA more opportunities to collect the only things that matter. Of the top-five projected hitters (according to ATC) in 2023, all but Aaron Judge are ~15% K% guys. When all else fails in a toss-up draft decision, just take the guy who strikes out less.
However, a big-K rate doesn't have to be a death blow, as long as they have a lot of bags and counting stats to help overcome the passive value they lose through the whiffs. Matt Chapman and his locked-in ~30% K% is still one of the best values on the board according to ATC, projected as a top-50 hitter but is the 94th hitter off of the board.
Hitter values have been cheapened by the scoring changes but have always been lesser in value due to Yahoo's restrictive roster settings making for an always plentiful waiver wire. Having three outfielders and no MI/CI really floods the wire with talent, even if they give you an extra UT slot. There are always going to be good hitter options on the wire - always. Draft accordingly.
Hitter Bargains and Busts for Yahoo H2H Point Leagues
Hitter Bargains
Christian Walker, ARI, 1B (157 ADP) - Walker and his boring profile look to be points gold in 2023, even if the home runs come back to earth (26 HR projected by ATC). But what makes Walker such a value (#92 hitter by ADP vs #45 hitter by ATC projections) is all the compiling work done by the big PAs he'll collect while rolling out above-average rates of getting on base. It bears repeating - 600 PAs + good plate discipline will turn a lot of barely above-average things into gold on Yahoo.
Ketel Marte, ARI, 2B (215 ADP) - Well, we might as well go with another compiling profile from the desert. I get that Marte's injury history makes him risky but a post-200 ADP has gone way too far, especially on a platform like Yahoo where finding a decent replacement will be easy if he does go down again. The projected line from ATC isn't sexy (581 PA - 16 HR - 73 R - 66 RBI - 4 SB, .270/.338/.437) but it would be enough to make him a massive bargain, projecting him as the #86 hitter by value compared to the #128 hitter by ADP. And keep in mind that's a very conservative batting average projection after a career-worst .240 AVG in 2022 - in the three years prior, Marte posted a .318 AVG over 1197 PA.
Yandy Diaz, TB, 3B (427 ADP) - The points league legend of Yandy continues, with Diaz earning a throwaway ADP on Yahoo while ATC is projecting him to the #93 hitter in 2023. Diaz simply doesn't need outlandish roto stats and home runs to be a points star. He instead does it with a high batting average, outrageous ADP, and a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio. And while he might not be the points god that he is in formats with a strikeout penalty but he also comes with a much worse ADP on Yahoo than on ESPN and CBS - you can essentially get a starter-level player in your final rounds. With Diaz in your pocket, there is no need to rush into the chum-filled waters at third base in the top-100 picks. Yandy is the points cheat code - treat him how he deserves.
Hitter Busts
Luis Robert Jr., CHW, OF (44 ADP) - Robert combines a lackluster per-PA scoring rate with a propensity to always be too injured to rack up enough PAs to overcome it. Until Robert can prove he can collect at least 600 PA (his career high is 401 PA) or really jack up a HR rate that currently makes it look like he's closer to a 20-HR guy than 30 HR, it's really hard to pay his top-50 price. Remember, this isn't a profile like Byron Buxton, whose per-PA scoring rate is so outrageous that anything close to a full season would make him a superstar. Robert is injury-prone and scores at an average rate (relative to other top 50 picks). So to bet on Robett earning back his high cost is to need a healthy season and a big scoring improvement. This is generally not a wise bet; at least, not at that cost.
Starling Marte, NYM, OF (62 ADP) - Marte is like paying a little less than Robert but getting far less upside on the stats and even more injury risk. His high-speed/low-power profile, like Robert's, is also mediocre, averaging 1.9 points per PA in 2022 and being projected for just below that mark in 2023. Putting the chances of Marte reaching 550 PA (something he hasn't done since 2019) aside, Marte would either need to see a big (and unlikely) bump in power or an outrageous number of some combination of SB+R+RBI. Granted, Marte has the speed and track record for us to assume he'll take good advantage of the rules changes favorable for the burners. But we can also probably only safely put so many extra bags on those ever-older legs.
Spending Big on Catchers - They're deep, with ATC projecting surplus values for the first 13 catchers being drafted. Why draft J.T. Realmuto 42 ADP (ranked #2 by ATC), when you can take Daulton Varsho (#1) at his 67 ADP. But why take Varsho there, when you can take Adley Rutschman (#4) at his 85 ADP and get someone whose per-PA scoring rate in 2022 was nearly identical to Varsho's? However, why spend up on any of those guys when Sean Murphy (#8 but only 30 points behind MJ Melendez at #5) is way down at a 172 ADP? Or take a chance on Tyler Stephenson (172 ADP, #9 projected catcher) who had the highest per-PA scoring rate of the bunch in 2022?
Catcher is deep, ya dig? Don't waste valuable draft picks on the big-ticket items.
Pitcher Scoring System Notes
Pitchers score half as many points as hitters and those points aren't nearly as valuable as they were under Yahoo's original system. To get a gander at how much, let's look at the top 40 pitchers by dollar value in 2022, as well as their value ranks under the old scoring systems:
One stat line, three very different valuations:
| Player | 2022 Value Rank | 2021 Value Rank | 2020 Value Rank |
| Corbin Burnes | 18 | 32 | 5 |
| Gerrit Cole | 21 | 38 | 4 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 22 | 28 | 11 |
| Carlos Rodon | 23 | 41 | 8 |
| Dylan Cease | 24 | 42 | 10 |
| Justin Verlander | 26 | 47 | 32 |
| Aaron Nola | 30 | 40 | 9 |
| Alek Manoah | 44 | 52 | 35 |
| Yu Darvish | 45 | 55 | 23 |
| Zac Gallen | 46 | 59 | 39 |
| Framber Valdez | 51 | 57 | 21 |
| Shane Bieber | 52 | 58 | 28 |
| Shane McClanahan | 53 | 64 | 44 |
| Spencer Strider | 54 | 78 | 56 |
| Julio Urias | 59 | 72 | 57 |
| Cristian Javier | 60 | 74 | 58 |
| Triston McKenzie | 64 | 65 | 43 |
| Max Fried | 65 | 70 | 59 |
| Max Scherzer | 70 | 89 | 80 |
| Kyle Wright | 71 | 80 | 41 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 72 | 87 | 53 |
| Kevin Gausman | 73 | 77 | 34 |
| Robbie Ray | 77 | 76 | 24 |
| Edwin Diaz | 80 | 152 | 127 |
| Nestor Cortes | 81 | 91 | 83 |
| Joe Musgrove | 82 | 82 | 60 |
| Emmanuel Clase | 85 | 161 | 155 |
| Logan Webb | 86 | 84 | 65 |
| Merrill Kelly | 89 | 83 | 48 |
| Zack Wheeler | 93 | 107 | 88 |
| Logan Gilbert | 94 | 94 | 62 |
| Martin Perez | 97 | 90 | 64 |
| Tyler Anderson | 98 | 101 | 95 |
| Chris Bassitt | 99 | 102 | 70 |
| Kenley Jansen | 107 | 191 | 146 |
| Charlie Morton | 109 | 109 | 45 |
| Luis Castillo | 111 | 116 | 97 |
| Miles Mikolas | 112 | 100 | 78 |
He-llllppp us; our value is drowwww-nning. But it's also important to note that not every pitcher was treated the same by the various changes.
- Most everyone got their value chopped according to the original change in scoring (Burnes dropping all the way from #5 under 2020 scoring to #32 under 2021, and then back up to #18 currently) but not all; Max Scherzer's 2022 would've made him the #80 player under 2020 rules and #89 under 2021 rules - but #70 under the current system.
- Many pitchers in 2022 wouldn't have felt much of a pinch when comparing the 2021 system to 2022 - but some saw dramatic changes. Spencer Strider's 2022 would've ranked him #78 under 2021 rules but has him at #54 in the current system.
- The biggest difference between Yahoo's current scoring and other platforms is the ratio of positive strikeout points to negative points for earned runs that Yahoo doubles the other up on; only one strikeout is needed to wipe out an earned run when you need two elsewhere.
Pitching Strategy for Yahoo H2H Point Leagues
Our strategy is simple and only requires four letters - K. I. S. S. - Keep It Simple, Strikeouts. Oh sure, run and hit prevention is great and all but the most valuable pieces on the board are strikeouts, as Yahoo makes them worth enough points to quickly erase any hiccups brought about by the runs and hits that are more out of a pitcher's control. The 1:1 ratio of strikeout (+3) to earned run (-3) is far more favorable than the 1:2 ratio that exists on ESPN (1 per K, -2 per ER), CBS (.5 per K, -1 per ER), or NFBC (1 per K, -2 per ER). Being able to virtually erase one earned run with just one strikeout is an immense advantage when played out over the course of the full season. And considering that strikeout rates are way stickier from year-to-year than a pitcher's ERA (and WHIP), it's the big whiffers that make for the safest bets.
For example, Sandy Alcantara was the #3 SP in 2022 and that's about where he's being drafted in 2023. But even if he again goes over 200 IP, what happens when his pristine 2.28 ERA in 2022 regresses somewhere closer to the 2.99 FIP and 3.29 xFIP that went with it? Well, unless his strikeout makes a giant (and unexpected) leap, Alcantara will have a really, really hard time earning back his draft price running even a 3.00 ERA. And ATC agrees, projecting him as just the #15 SP with a very reasonable (but certainly not terrible) 3.27 ERA. Much like high-K hitters will have a hard time outrunning their scoring profile in a system that penalizes strikeouts, so too will lower-K pitchers that rely on ratios and wins to boost their values.
Yahoo has four open pitching slots but they're usually better served with starting pitchers, as they score almost double the points over the course of the season as relief pitchers do. But don't shortchange RPs as you'll have to fill two dedicated slots with them - and there is an ocean of difference (or around 150 points) between top guys like Josh Hader and Emmanuel Clase vs around replacement-level guys like Alex Lange and Daniel Bard. Comparing their ADP ranks to projected values, ATC doesn't really call for any big busts or bargains, with no bigger than a five-spot swing in both directions between anyone in the top 20. In other words, the price(s) is right.
Given the deepness of hitters, both in the draft and on the waiver wire, I'm probably attacking a Yahoo league by going hard on early pitching, counting on being able to find plenty of late value on bats. Not to mention being smart about pouncing on the early breakouts because of having a better understanding of what the most desirable scoring profiles are. So give me aces until I choke - maybe even being able to start with a Gerrit Cole/Corbin Burnes double-tap, something that is very much going to be a possibility in some drafts given their current ADPs and the general desire of managers to take hitters first. It might not always work but Cole and Burnes are simply on a distinct value tier compared to their peers, and I definitely be trying to get at least one.
But even if pulling off the combo, don't think I'd be resting on my haunches; I have six spots where SPs can go and I want to be deep enough to put a top-tier guy in everyone, and then some. But I'm also not forgetting about the RPs and would want to snag two of the top-10ish guys, not wanting to worry about filling those two slots with sub-par relievers who have low-grade job security. However, after Clase and Hader, the rest of the top 10 melts into a small-gap jumble. So, while I might reach a little for one of the top two guys, I'm not paying anything over the market price for the rest, mostly just looking to grab the best deal.
The above pitching aggression wouldn't leave me with many picks for hitters in the top 100 but that's just fine because there are tons of values around afterward and plenty of platform cheat codes to be leveraged with your final picks. **COUGH! Yandy Diaz! COUGH-COUGH!
Pitcher Bargains and Busts for Yahoo H2H Point Leagues
Pitcher Bargains
Luis Castillo, SEA, SP (64 ADP) - Innings and Ks! - Get used to hearing it. Castillo is a balanced bundle of points league value, rolling a profile that is big on innings (he only made 25 starts in 2022 but went over 30 starts in the previous three full seasons, and made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign) and strikeouts (26% K% and 14% SwStr% for his career). But besides the above, Castillo is also backed by a really good offense and bullpen that will help carry him to plenty of Win bonuses. His price is by no means cheap but you're going to need some aces and his profile has a safer floor than other options going in front of him, with ATC projecting him as the #9 SP in 2023.
Charlie Morton, ATL, SP (155 ADP) - I happen to believe ol' Uncle Charlie is a bargain in just about any format with drafters seemingly off a 39-year-old pitcher putting up a 4.34 ERA that was his worst (not counting 2020) mark since 2015 with Pittsburgh. But Morton's earned-run troubles were backed by ERA evaluators that were much shinier (3.60 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA) for the year and a summer run that saw him post a 3.36 ERA from June to August before hitting the skids in September. Ending the season allowing 19 ER in six starts certainly stinks but the brutality of that late schedule must be acknowledged. Morton dominated against the weaker Nationals and Marlins (2 ER in 11 IP) but got pounced on in starts against some of baseball's hottest late-season teams (@ SEA, @ SFG, @ PHI, vs NYM).
The old man and his hook will still have some bumps on the ERA road but not in the one department that can carry you in Yahoo points and make some of those scary runs poof into mist. 'Cause Charlie's gonna K. Even though last year's struggles, Morton was still buttering his bread with whiffs, posting a 28% K% and collecting +200 K for the fourth consecutive (full) season. A bulk of strikeouts like that simply aren't available anywhere else near that price and with K's in hand Morton should again be a strong force. And ATC agrees, projecting him as the #26 SP, while he's being drafted as the #45 SP.
Pitcher Busts
Sandy Alcantara, MIA, SP (23 ADP) - Innings? Yes! Strikeouts! Umm...Nope. I told you we were looking for bulk innings but, unfortunately, Sandy and his rubber arm will have a hard time earning back his draft price (#3 SP) with a 23% K% unless he again posts the pristine sub-2.30 ERA that he ran over 228 IP in 2022. Could he do it? Sure - the stuff is clearly gorgeous and the velocity is hard to handle. But regression is an actual thing and even if Alcantara puts up a very realistic (and still very good!) ~3.00 ERA, he won't rate as a top-five (or even top-10 SP) unless a new wave of K's makes an appearance.
This is a classic example of judging a player on how they fit a particular points system, NOT their overall talent. A 3.00 ERA over 200+ IP with a 23% K% would be a very (very!) good season - but it still wouldn't make Alcantara be worth his cost. At least, not on Yahoo.
Julio Urias, LAD, SP (41 ADP) - Again, this is more about price and how a player projects in a particular system, not about how good of a player they actually are. Urias has been a one-man buster of ERA evaluators, yearly turning in ERAs that are well below his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, while running some of the lowest BABIPs you'll find from a starting pitcher:
| Season | G | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | BABIP |
| 2019 | 37 | 79 | 2.49 | 3.43 | 4.28 | 4.00 | .257 |
| 2020 | 11 | 55 | 3.27 | 3.72 | 5.06 | 4.88 | .256 |
| 2021 | 32 | 185 | 2.96 | 3.13 | 3.73 | 3.64 | .272 |
| 2022 | 31 | 175 | 2.16 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 3.66 | .229 |
Urias's fantasy success the past few years, in points or otherwise, has been driven by ratios that seem unsustainable, along with picking up 37 Wins in 63 starts in 2021-2022 - AKA leading second place by eight (8!) wins over Gerrit Cole's 29 Wins. And mind you, this is from a guy who is way more likely to go five or six innings than he is to go seven - something that only happened 10 times in that stretch.
Maybe Urias will continue to dance with the devil of pulling an ERA more than a run less than his evaluators, continue to pile up Wins while only going ~6 IP, and running a sub-25%. Or, maybe our ol' pal regression starts catching up, leaving Urias mired in mediocrity (at least, relative to his draft price). But I'm not paying close to a top-10 price for a guy that feels more like a top-25 valuation.
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