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Yahoo H2H Points League Primer - Strategy, Bargains and Busts for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Yandy Diaz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

For the first time in four years, Yahoo's standard point scoring has remained the same in back-to-back seasons - It's a celebration, pitches! That's right, folks; the scoring system on Yahoo in 2023 looks to be the exact same as in 2022. Huge if true.

And it is true! Well, at least it is as of 1:35 pm CST, March 27th of 2023 - I can make no promises for tomorrow. But for now, the scoring foundation of our Yahoo Points strategies is built on something more solid than sand, and damn does it feel good. Theoretically, this makes the game more enjoyable because the more you can prepare, the more set up for success you'll be. Success begets more fun, which in turn begets more people loving baseball. And this brings us to our most begetimatous (totally a word) goal - me being able to badger more strangers about baseball without the authorities being called.

Unfortunately, the Yahoo game that has come back unchanged is still one that involves ridiculously high and unbalanced scoring, with the path to proper player valuation as murky as ever. Okay, hitters may outscore starting pitchers by double (who in turn double up RPs) but at least we're not still using decimal point scoring that makes everything harder to keep track of, right?... Sigh. All we had to do, people, was name me Points Czar and all these problems would already have been washed away by a benevolent wave of dictatorial power. Is it really that big of a deal?

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association including Baseball Writer of the Year, Football Writers of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year and many more! Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!


Yahoo H2H Points Standard League Overview

League Size: Max of 12 teams in public leagues
Hitting Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT, UT
Pitching Roster: SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P
Standard Scoring:

Hitter Event Points Pitcher Event Points
1B 2.6 IP 3
2B 5.2 Win 8
3B 7.8 SV 8
HR 10.4 Loss 0
Run 1.9 K 3
RBI 1.9 ER -3
SB 4.2 HA -1.3
BB 2.6 BB -1.3
K 0 HBP -1.3

This is the most current Yahoo scoring system but as alluded to earlier, there have been some mighty upheavals in their standard scoring. For once, there was an old system, used since inception up through the 2020 season.

Yahoo Scoring 2.0

But in 2021, the corporation spoke - LET THERE BE SYNERGY!

Yahoo! Batters 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SB HBP
Pre-2021 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.5 2 2 0 2 0
Redux #1 2.6 5.2 7.8 10.4 1.9 1.9 2.6 4.2 2.6
Yahoo! Pitchers IP W SV SO BB H ER HBP
Pre-2020 1 5 5 2 0 0 -0.5 0
Redux #1 3 4 4 2 -0.9 -0.9 -2 -1.3

And as they spoke, so did it happen; without warning, explanation, or even acknowledgment, the Yahoo scoring world was turned upside down. But someone noticed - I mean, besides the thousands of people who logged into their leagues and couldn't have helped but notice their players now being projected as scoring hundreds of more points than they had in the past.

No, I talk of the other someone who just happened to be in the middle of writing his first Yahoo Points League Primer when the change first happened. And by noticed, I mean he thought he had accidentally taken crazy pills and just hallucinated the scoring setting that he'd been writing about just a day prior.

Luckily for our intrepid hero, cached web pages exist and he was able to see he wasn't crazy. And I had...questions.

Like...why scoring had been so upended as to totally erase any previous experience gained from playing under the old system and making veteran players basically start from scratch? Or make scoring so impossibly high (and with decimals!) as to make it virtually impossible to be watching a game (and the bottom line scroll) and actually be able to roughly estimate how your players were doing? And, and, and...A bunch of other questions. But it all boiled down to a central quibble about game-making philosophy:

Why did you make your game more complicated (worse) for the players that game makers should be most focused on?

Credit to the corporation - they did, at least, offer our hero some answers via a raven named email; the changes were brought about by a synergistic hammer of doom, with the point scoring being changed to be more in line with the scoring in their daily fantasy offerings. I suppose the thinking went that maybe if we change our H2H point scoring to be like our DFS games, more of them will play/give us more money. Huzzah for more cash to the coffers!

Unfortunately, not much care seemed to be given to how this scoring would affect player values - it seemed to be more of a wand wave: "Now you score this and you score this and who cares because they're just H2H point players". Points for honesty - but none for the game-making. The new scoring was more complicated, harder to track, and made players harder to value, with the latter being doubled by the fact of any previous experience in valuing players would have to be thrown away. Boo, I say. Boo.


Yahoo Scoring 2.5 - Present and Future(?)

But after all of that, the 2022 season again brought changes! Not as monumental as the great change but impactful nonetheless. And again, credit must be given where due; the named Corporation had at least contemplated some of the complaints our hero had outlined in his return raven from the season before and had notified him in advance of this most recent shift (RE: Here, we changed some things - I hope that makes you happy enough to shut up now?).

No, it did not - but I did award partial credit for trying. IE at least pitchers weren't being outscored by a 3:1 margin anymore. Hitter scoring was left the same but pitchers now got a points pump-up to try and level the field a bit more. To the Redux #2!

Yahoo! Pitchers IP W SV SO BB H ER HBP
Pre-2020 1 5 5 2 0 0 -0.5 0
Redux #1 3 4 4 2 -0.9 -0.9 -2 -1.3
Current 3 8 8 3 -1.3 -1.3 -3 -1.3

Well, lookie there. Double the points for Wins and Saves, and an extra point per strikeout - that's gotta close the gap, right? Sure, I guess? They might have increased those categories but they also increased the penalties for walks, hits, and earned runs.

To get a quick impression of how much the scoring has changed, let's look at Corbin Burnes, who was the #1 point scorer among starting pitchers in 2022. Here is how his 2022 numbers would've scored under each of the three scoring systems, as well as where those points would've ranked him among all players (hitters and pitchers).

Yahoo Scoring Total Points Overall Points Rank
Before 2021 715 #3
2021 803 #135
2022/Current 950 #84

Umm, yea-aaah. That's a little different. Now, keep in mind, we're dealing with raw point scoring, not overall values that are adjusted for positions. But yes, you're reading that right; the highest-scoring pitcher in 2022 scored fewer points than 83 hitters.

Speaking of hitters, let's switch over to Pete Alonso, who finished as the #2 point scorer among hitters in 2022. We're not going to use the #1 scorer, Aaron Judge, because the gap between him and everyone else (regardless of position) in his record-breaking season, is so massive. So, whatcha think, Pete?

Yahoo Scoring Total Points Overall Points Rank
Before 2021 703 4
2021 1428 5
2022/Current 1428 5

Where Alonso (and other hitters) ranks under the new system (which again, was the same as it was during the first big change) didn't much change. But the scoring...Did. As in, it more than doubled. As in, hitter points getting with more NOS than Dominic Torretto. And not that basic NOS from LA - I'm talking about that Cuban NOS that once turned an old jalopy into a literal missile.

The good news is that for the first time since 2020, the scoring system remains the same as it was the year before. The bad news is that it's still basically pointless to compare hitters vs pitchers without doing a dollar valuation. IE. Good luck ballparking the differences considering Andrew McCutchen scored three more points than Corbin Burnes in 2022, but was only #161 in dollar values, compared to Burnes at #18.

Thanks, Yahoo! - Serious, I am not.


Hitter Scoring System Notes

It can't be said enough; a hitter's point-scoring profile is just as, if not more so, important than a player's talent. If a skill set doesn't translate well to a scoring system (even if it's valuable in another system or in roto), it's hard for a player to change their value without a major change to their profile.

  • In a world of over-the-top scoring, accumulation and edge-finding is king. But while knowledge of a hitter's scoring profile is as important as always, the combinations of skills that bring good and bad fortune aren't nearly as linear as it is on ESPN or other platforms. A high OBP doesn't automatically mean success, nor does a big strikeout rate portend failure, as Yahoo's speedball-injected scoring makes judging each player's value a true "case-by-case" situation. To the mystery players!

So, who scored more points in 2022?

Player A: 654 PA/.401 OBP/.406 wOBA/15% K%

Player B: 647 PA/.300 OBP/.324 wOBA/29% K%

If you guessed the seemingly obvious answer of Player A (aka Juan Soto) over Player B (aka Adolis Garcia), congratulations! The real question, though, is how much did Soto outscore Garcia by? Umm, one. As in, a 100-point OBP advantage and half the strikeout rate allowed Soto to score exactly one more point than Garcia. As I was saying; case by case.

  • It's more important than ever to understand a player's per-PA scoring (along with their projected playing time), as Yahoo's multiple scoring changes over the past few years have rendered their historical points scored totally and utterly moot. IE players score hundreds more points now compared to pre-2021. Luckily, 'ol Nick has retrofitted the lot, translating old stats to the new scoring to see whose per-PA rates have stayed steady and which have declined. Once you have a handle on players' expected scoring rates, it's just a matter of prognosticating whether they'll reach enough PAs to be worth the cost.
  • To understand a player's scoring rate and find the truth in any year-to-year discrepancies, you must go deeper than just the raw per-PA numbers and get to the bottom of events that drove the changes and whether they are things more directly in a hitter's control.


Hitting Strategy for Yahoo H2H Leagues

Picking hitter winners in points isn't voodoo, it's just an exercise in the power of knowledge. The more you know, and all that. And any RotoBaller premium subscriber (promo code: NOTBURT) can utilize our Custom Point Rankings service and will go into their draft with something like the below, while their opponents try to fumble about without any of the mystic secrets you'll be rolling with.

Using Yahoo ADP and ATC projections, here are the first 20 hitters being drafted - AKA probably don't draft Julio Rodriguez in the top-five:

For general hitter evaluation, remember that things have been greatly simplified regarding what is scored; 2.6 points per base (walks and hits), 4.2 points per SB, and 1.9 points per R/RBI. So, a two-run home run would be worth 18 points, a single and a steal would be 6.8 points, etc. And unlike ESPN and CBS, there are no penalties for striking out, nor any for being caught stealing. M.O.A.R. spells points to the moon!

Looking at what player profiles return value, relative to how they would rate on other platforms, or how they are valued in roto leagues, stolen bases will again be a big distorted. In other words, if a big part of your fantasy profile comes from speed, you probably aren't worth as much on Yahoo. It's not as bad as on ESPN points, where a stolen base is only worth 1 point, or as much as a single, with the 4.6 points you get on Yahoo being worth all much as a double (5.2 points). But it's also not as good as on CBS and Fantrax, where you're even-steven with a double at 2 points per SB.

In terms of the hitter profiles to target, the name of the game is PAs and bags. With no negative points to be found, top-of-the-order guys will always get a boost just from the extra PAs they'll pick up relative to players down the order. Of course, this applies to great players on great offenses but it'll also apply to mediocre players on mediocre teams, turning ones with good OBPs but little to nothing else in the counting department, into playable assets. I'm looking at you, Carlos Santana.

But even though strikeouts aren't penalized, that doesn't mean that low-K guys won't bring a lot of extra value to a profile. Remember, fewer strikeouts translate to more balls in play or more walks. AKA more opportunities to collect the only things that matter. Of the top-five projected hitters (according to ATC) in 2023, all but Aaron Judge are ~15% K% guys. When all else fails in a toss-up draft decision, just take the guy who strikes out less.

However, a big-K rate doesn't have to be a death blow, as long as they have a lot of bags and counting stats to help overcome the passive value they lose through the whiffs. Matt Chapman and his locked-in ~30% K% is still one of the best values on the board according to ATC, projected as a top-50 hitter but is the 94th hitter off of the board.

Hitter values have been cheapened by the scoring changes but have always been lesser in value due to Yahoo's restrictive roster settings making for an always plentiful waiver wire. Having three outfielders and no MI/CI really floods the wire with talent, even if they give you an extra UT slot. There are always going to be good hitter options on the wire - always. Draft accordingly.


Hitter Bargains and Busts for Yahoo H2H Point Leagues

Hitter Bargains

Christian Walker, ARI, 1B (157 ADP) - Walker and his boring profile look to be points gold in 2023, even if the home runs come back to earth (26 HR projected by ATC). But what makes Walker such a value (#92 hitter by ADP vs #45 hitter by ATC projections) is all the compiling work done by the big PAs he'll collect while rolling out above-average rates of getting on base. It bears repeating - 600 PAs + good plate discipline will turn a lot of barely above-average things into gold on Yahoo.

Ketel Marte, ARI, 2B (215 ADP) - Well, we might as well go with another compiling profile from the desert. I get that Marte's injury history makes him risky but a post-200 ADP has gone way too far, especially on a platform like Yahoo where finding a decent replacement will be easy if he does go down again. The projected line from ATC isn't sexy (581 PA - 16 HR - 73 R - 66 RBI - 4 SB, .270/.338/.437) but it would be enough to make him a massive bargain, projecting him as the #86 hitter by value compared to the #128 hitter by ADP. And keep in mind that's a very conservative batting average projection after a career-worst .240 AVG in 2022 - in the three years prior, Marte posted a .318 AVG over 1197 PA.

Yandy Diaz, TB, 3B (427 ADP) - The points league legend of Yandy continues, with Diaz earning a throwaway ADP on Yahoo while ATC is projecting him to the #93 hitter in 2023. Diaz simply doesn't need outlandish roto stats and home runs to be a points star. He instead does it with a high batting average, outrageous ADP, and a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  And while he might not be the points god that he is in formats with a strikeout penalty but he also comes with a much worse ADP on Yahoo than on ESPN and CBS - you can essentially get a starter-level player in your final rounds. With Diaz in your pocket, there is no need to rush into the chum-filled waters at third base in the top-100 picks. Yandy is the points cheat code - treat him how he deserves.

Hitter Busts

Luis Robert Jr., CHW, OF (44 ADP) - Robert combines a lackluster per-PA scoring rate with a propensity to always be too injured to rack up enough PAs to overcome it. Until Robert can prove he can collect at least 600 PA (his career high is 401 PA) or really jack up a HR rate that currently makes it look like he's closer to a 20-HR guy than 30 HR, it's really hard to pay his top-50 price. Remember, this isn't a profile like Byron Buxton, whose per-PA scoring rate is so outrageous that anything close to a full season would make him a superstar. Robert is injury-prone and scores at an average rate (relative to other top 50 picks). So to bet on Robett earning back his high cost is to need a healthy season and a big scoring improvement. This is generally not a wise bet; at least, not at that cost.

Starling Marte, NYM, OF (62 ADP) - Marte is like paying a little less than Robert but getting far less upside on the stats and even more injury risk. His high-speed/low-power profile, like Robert's, is also mediocre, averaging 1.9 points per PA in 2022 and being projected for just below that mark in 2023. Putting the chances of Marte reaching 550 PA (something he hasn't done since 2019) aside, Marte would either need to see a big (and unlikely) bump in power or an outrageous number of some combination of SB+R+RBI. Granted, Marte has the speed and track record for us to assume he'll take good advantage of the rules changes favorable for the burners. But we can also probably only safely put so many extra bags on those ever-older legs.

Spending Big on Catchers - They're deep, with ATC projecting surplus values for the first 13 catchers being drafted. Why draft J.T. Realmuto 42 ADP (ranked #2 by ATC), when you can take Daulton Varsho (#1) at his 67 ADP. But why take Varsho there, when you can take Adley Rutschman (#4) at his 85 ADP and get someone whose per-PA scoring rate in 2022 was nearly identical to Varsho's? However, why spend up on any of those guys when Sean Murphy (#8 but only 30 points behind MJ Melendez at #5) is way down at a 172 ADP? Or take a chance on Tyler Stephenson (172 ADP, #9 projected catcher) who had the highest per-PA scoring rate of the bunch in 2022?

Catcher is deep, ya dig? Don't waste valuable draft picks on the big-ticket items.


Pitcher Scoring System Notes

Pitchers score half as many points as hitters and those points aren't nearly as valuable as they were under Yahoo's original system. To get a gander at how much, let's look at the top 40 pitchers by dollar value in 2022, as well as their value ranks under the old scoring systems:

One stat line, three very different valuations:

Player 2022 Value Rank 2021 Value Rank 2020 Value Rank
Corbin Burnes 18 32 5
Gerrit Cole 21 38 4
Sandy Alcantara 22 28 11
Carlos Rodon 23 41 8
Dylan Cease 24 42 10
Justin Verlander 26 47 32
Aaron Nola 30 40 9
Alek Manoah 44 52 35
Yu Darvish 45 55 23
Zac Gallen 46 59 39
Framber Valdez 51 57 21
Shane Bieber 52 58 28
Shane McClanahan 53 64 44
Spencer Strider 54 78 56
Julio Urias 59 72 57
Cristian Javier 60 74 58
Triston McKenzie 64 65 43
Max Fried 65 70 59
Max Scherzer 70 89 80
Kyle Wright 71 80 41
Brandon Woodruff 72 87 53
Kevin Gausman 73 77 34
Robbie Ray 77 76 24
Edwin Diaz 80 152 127
Nestor Cortes 81 91 83
Joe Musgrove 82 82 60
Emmanuel Clase 85 161 155
Logan Webb 86 84 65
Merrill Kelly 89 83 48
Zack Wheeler 93 107 88
Logan Gilbert 94 94 62
Martin Perez 97 90 64
Tyler Anderson 98 101 95
Chris Bassitt 99 102 70
Kenley Jansen 107 191 146
Charlie Morton 109 109 45
Luis Castillo 111 116 97
Miles Mikolas 112 100 78

He-llllppp us; our value is drowwww-nning. But it's also important to note that not every pitcher was treated the same by the various changes.

  1. Most everyone got their value chopped according to the original change in scoring (Burnes dropping all the way from #5 under 2020 scoring to #32 under 2021, and then back up to #18 currently) but not all; Max Scherzer's 2022 would've made him the #80 player under 2020 rules and #89 under 2021 rules - but #70 under the current system.
  2. Many pitchers in 2022 wouldn't have felt much of a pinch when comparing the 2021 system to 2022 - but some saw dramatic changes. Spencer Strider's 2022 would've ranked him #78 under 2021 rules but has him at #54 in the current system.
  3. The biggest difference between Yahoo's current scoring and other platforms is the ratio of positive strikeout points to negative points for earned runs that Yahoo doubles the other up on; only one strikeout is needed to wipe out an earned run when you need two elsewhere.


Pitching Strategy for Yahoo H2H Point Leagues

Our strategy is simple and only requires four letters - K. I. S. S. - Keep It Simple, Strikeouts. Oh sure, run and hit prevention is great and all but the most valuable pieces on the board are strikeouts, as Yahoo makes them worth enough points to quickly erase any hiccups brought about by the runs and hits that are more out of a pitcher's control. The 1:1 ratio of strikeout (+3) to earned run (-3) is far more favorable than the 1:2 ratio that exists on ESPN (1 per K, -2 per ER), CBS (.5 per K, -1 per ER), or NFBC (1 per K, -2 per ER). Being able to virtually erase one earned run with just one strikeout is an immense advantage when played out over the course of the full season. And considering that strikeout rates are way stickier from year-to-year than a pitcher's ERA (and WHIP), it's the big whiffers that make for the safest bets.

For example, Sandy Alcantara was the #3 SP in 2022 and that's about where he's being drafted in 2023. But even if he again goes over 200 IP, what happens when his pristine 2.28 ERA in 2022 regresses somewhere closer to the 2.99 FIP and 3.29 xFIP that went with it? Well, unless his strikeout makes a giant (and unexpected) leap, Alcantara will have a really, really hard time earning back his draft price running even a 3.00 ERA. And ATC agrees, projecting him as just the #15 SP with a very reasonable (but certainly not terrible) 3.27 ERA. Much like high-K hitters will have a hard time outrunning their scoring profile in a system that penalizes strikeouts, so too will lower-K pitchers that rely on ratios and wins to boost their values.

Yahoo has four open pitching slots but they're usually better served with starting pitchers, as they score almost double the points over the course of the season as relief pitchers do. But don't shortchange RPs as you'll have to fill two dedicated slots with them - and there is an ocean of difference (or around 150 points) between top guys like Josh Hader and Emmanuel Clase vs around replacement-level guys like Alex Lange and Daniel Bard. Comparing their ADP ranks to projected values, ATC doesn't really call for any big busts or bargains, with no bigger than a five-spot swing in both directions between anyone in the top 20. In other words, the price(s) is right.

Given the deepness of hitters, both in the draft and on the waiver wire, I'm probably attacking a Yahoo league by going hard on early pitching, counting on being able to find plenty of late value on bats. Not to mention being smart about pouncing on the early breakouts because of having a better understanding of what the most desirable scoring profiles are. So give me aces until I choke - maybe even being able to start with a Gerrit Cole/Corbin Burnes double-tap, something that is very much going to be a possibility in some drafts given their current ADPs and the general desire of managers to take hitters first. It might not always work but Cole and Burnes are simply on a distinct value tier compared to their peers, and I definitely be trying to get at least one.

But even if pulling off the combo, don't think I'd be resting on my haunches; I have six spots where SPs can go and I want to be deep enough to put a top-tier guy in everyone, and then some. But I'm also not forgetting about the RPs and would want to snag two of the top-10ish guys, not wanting to worry about filling those two slots with sub-par relievers who have low-grade job security. However, after Clase and Hader, the rest of the top 10 melts into a small-gap jumble. So, while I might reach a little for one of the top two guys, I'm not paying anything over the market price for the rest, mostly just looking to grab the best deal.

The above pitching aggression wouldn't leave me with many picks for hitters in the top 100 but that's just fine because there are tons of values around afterward and plenty of platform cheat codes to be leveraged with your final picks. **COUGH! Yandy Diaz! COUGH-COUGH!


Pitcher Bargains and Busts for Yahoo H2H Point Leagues

Pitcher Bargains

Luis Castillo, SEA, SP (64 ADP) - Innings and Ks! - Get used to hearing it. Castillo is a balanced bundle of points league value, rolling a profile that is big on innings (he only made 25 starts in 2022 but went over 30 starts in the previous three full seasons, and made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign) and strikeouts (26% K% and 14% SwStr% for his career). But besides the above, Castillo is also backed by a really good offense and bullpen that will help carry him to plenty of Win bonuses. His price is by no means cheap but you're going to need some aces and his profile has a safer floor than other options going in front of him, with ATC projecting him as the #9 SP in 2023.

Charlie Morton, ATL, SP (155 ADP) - I happen to believe ol' Uncle Charlie is a bargain in just about any format with drafters seemingly off a 39-year-old pitcher putting up a 4.34 ERA that was his worst (not counting 2020) mark since 2015 with Pittsburgh. But Morton's earned-run troubles were backed by ERA evaluators that were much shinier (3.60 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA) for the year and a summer run that saw him post a 3.36 ERA from June to August before hitting the skids in September. Ending the season allowing 19 ER in six starts certainly stinks but the brutality of that late schedule must be acknowledged. Morton dominated against the weaker Nationals and Marlins (2 ER in 11 IP) but got pounced on in starts against some of baseball's hottest late-season teams (@ SEA, @ SFG, @ PHI, vs NYM).

The old man and his hook will still have some bumps on the ERA road but not in the one department that can carry you in Yahoo points and make some of those scary runs poof into mist. 'Cause Charlie's gonna K. Even though last year's struggles, Morton was still buttering his bread with whiffs, posting a 28% K% and collecting +200 K for the fourth consecutive (full) season. A bulk of strikeouts like that simply aren't available anywhere else near that price and with K's in hand Morton should again be a strong force. And ATC agrees, projecting him as the #26 SP, while he's being drafted as the #45 SP.

Pitcher Busts

Sandy Alcantara, MIA, SP (23 ADP) - Innings? Yes! Strikeouts! Umm...Nope. I told you we were looking for bulk innings but, unfortunately, Sandy and his rubber arm will have a hard time earning back his draft price (#3 SP) with a 23% K% unless he again posts the pristine sub-2.30 ERA that he ran over 228 IP in 2022. Could he do it? Sure - the stuff is clearly gorgeous and the velocity is hard to handle. But regression is an actual thing and even if Alcantara puts up a very realistic (and still very good!) ~3.00 ERA, he won't rate as a top-five (or even top-10 SP) unless a new wave of K's makes an appearance.

This is a classic example of judging a player on how they fit a particular points system, NOT their overall talent. A 3.00 ERA over 200+ IP with a 23% K% would be a very (very!) good season - but it still wouldn't make Alcantara be worth his cost. At least, not on Yahoo.

Julio Urias, LAD, SP (41 ADP) - Again, this is more about price and how a player projects in a particular system, not about how good of a player they actually are. Urias has been a one-man buster of ERA evaluators, yearly turning in ERAs that are well below his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, while running some of the lowest BABIPs you'll find from a starting pitcher:

2019 37 79 2.49 3.43 4.28 4.00 .257
2020 11 55 3.27 3.72 5.06 4.88 .256
2021 32 185 2.96 3.13 3.73 3.64 .272
2022 31 175 2.16 3.71 3.81 3.66 .229

Urias's fantasy success the past few years, in points or otherwise, has been driven by ratios that seem unsustainable, along with picking up 37 Wins in 63 starts in 2021-2022 - AKA leading second place by eight (8!) wins over Gerrit Cole's 29 Wins. And mind you, this is from a guy who is way more likely to go five or six innings than he is to go seven - something that only happened 10 times in that stretch.

Maybe Urias will continue to dance with the devil of pulling an ERA more than a run less than his evaluators, continue to pile up Wins while only going ~6 IP, and running a sub-25%. Or, maybe our ol' pal regression starts catching up, leaving Urias mired in mediocrity (at least, relative to his draft price). But I'm not paying close to a top-10 price for a guy that feels more like a top-25 valuation.

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Dwight Howard Wants To Play For Kings
MarJon Beauchamp12 hours ago

To Play In Summer League
Tyler Herro12 hours ago

To Remain Out For Game 4
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Dealing With Minor Injury
Khris Middleton12 hours ago

Has Successful Surgery
Noah Gragson12 hours ago

To Miss Sonoma With Concussion-Like Symptoms
Eryk Anders14 hours ago

Set For Middleweight Showdown On Enemy Turf
Marc-Andre Barriault14 hours ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Nate Landwehr15 hours ago

Set For First UFC-Numbered Event
Dan Ige15 hours ago

Looking To Start Another Streak At UFC 289
Philadelphia Eagles16 hours ago

Derek Barnett At OTAs Thursday
New York Giants17 hours ago

Giants Cancel OTAs Due To Poor Air Quality
Jani Hakanpaa17 hours ago

Will Have Offseason Knee Surgery
Quez Watkins17 hours ago

Standing Out This Spring
Demarcus Robinson17 hours ago

Rams Agree With Demarcus Robinson
Adin Hill17 hours ago

The Game 3 Starter For Vegas
Sergei Bobrovsky18 hours ago

Named Panthers Game 3 Starter
CeeDee Lamb19 hours ago

Tweaks Leg In Practice
Dallas Cowboys20 hours ago

Kelvin Joseph Injured Wednesday
Cooper Kupp20 hours ago

"Feeling Really Good" After Surgery
Chase McLaughlin20 hours ago

Wins Kicking Competition
Bryce Young20 hours ago

Working With First Team At OTAs
Dalvin Cook20 hours ago

Vikings Still Trying To Trade Dalvin Cook
Carolina Panthers20 hours ago

Jaycee Horn To Miss Rest Of OTAs And Minicamp
Khalil Herbert20 hours ago

Has Early Lead For RB1 Role In Chicago
Dalvin Cook21 hours ago

Released By Vikings
Caleb Martin21 hours ago

Gets Going Again In Game 3
Bam Adebayo22 hours ago

Has Big Double-Double Despite Awful Shooting
Jimmy Butler22 hours ago

Leads Miami With 28 Points Wednesday
Christian Braun22 hours ago

Produces 15 Points In 19 Minutes
Aaron Gordon22 hours ago

Notches A Double-Double In Game 3
Jamal Murray22 hours ago

Makes Finals History With Another 10-Assist Game
Nikola Jokic22 hours ago

Logs Historic Triple-Double
Shaedon Sharpe1 day ago

Appears To Be Off-Limits
Radko Gudas1 day ago

Expected To Play In Game 3
Andreas Athanasiou1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Josh Hart1 day ago

Expected To Opt Out
Andre Drummond1 day ago

Likely To Exercise Player Option
Vladislav Gavrikov1 day ago

Kings Extend Vladislav Gavrikov For Two Years
Gary Trent1 day ago

Jr. Could Be Leaving Toronto
Alex DeBrincat1 day ago

Senators Exploring Trade Options Involving Alex DeBrincat
Tyler Herro2 days ago

To Go Through Workout On Thursday
Cody Zeller2 days ago

Will Play In Game 3
Timo Meier2 days ago

Set To Begin Contract Talks With Devils This Week
Ivan Provorov2 days ago

Traded To Columbus
Chris Paul2 days ago

To Be Waived By The Suns
Adam Hadwin2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Home Country
Matt Kuchar2 days ago

A Fade At RBC Canadian Open
PGA2 days ago

Matthew Fitzpatrick A Favorite In Canada
Dylan Wu2 days ago

Struggling To Find Form Heading To Oakdale
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Playing Well Heading To Oakdale
Robby Shelton2 days ago

Struggling With Consistency Heading To Oakdale
Eric Cole2 days ago

Making Debut At RBC Canadian Open
Brendon Todd2 days ago

To Play Through Shoulder Injury
Taylor Pendrith2 days ago

Making First Appearance At RBC Canadian Open Since 2015
Aaron Wise2 days ago

Returns To RBC Canadian Open
Alex Smalley2 days ago

Could Repeat Performance At RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor2 days ago

Hoping To Find Early Season Form Heading To Oakdale
Nicolai Hojgaard2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back After Missed Cut Last Week
Keith Mitchell2 days ago

Looks To Continue Strong Play At Oakdale
Rory McIlroy2 days ago

To Defend Title At RBC Canadian Open
Cameron Champ2 days ago

Playing Better Into Canada
Will Gordon2 days ago

A Solid Sleeper In Canada
Corey Conners2 days ago

Looking To Rebound In Canada
Tyrrell Hatton2 days ago

An Elite Option At RBC Canadian Open
Cameron Young2 days ago

Will Struggle In Canada
PGA2 days ago

Approach Play Holding S.H. Kim Back
D'Angelo Russell2 days ago

Lakers Want To Keep D'Angelo Russell?
Brook Lopez2 days ago

Rockets Targeting Brook Lopez
Jonathan Marchessault3 days ago

Scores Two Goals In Game 2 Victory
Adin Hill3 days ago

Makes 29 Saves In Game 2 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky3 days ago

Pulled In Game 2 Of Stanley Cup Final
Cole Caufield3 days ago

Signs Eight-Year Deal To Remain In Montreal
Sergei Bobrovsky3 days ago

The Expected Starter Monday
Adin Hill4 days ago

The Likely Starter In Game 2
Amir Albazi4 days ago

Extends His Winning Streak
Daniel Pineda4 days ago

Unable To Earn A Victory Saturday
Jesse Butler4 days ago

Suffers Knockout Loss
Victor Altamirano4 days ago

Unable To Earn A Victory Saturday
Ketlen Souza4 days ago

Takes Submission Loss
Muhammad Naimov4 days ago

Shines With Second-Round TKO Win
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos4 days ago

Defeats Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Kevin Harvick4 days ago

Rounds Out The Top 10 At Gateway
Michael McDowell4 days ago

Scores Best Finish In Two Months
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Strong Start Ends Early
Daniel Suarez4 days ago

Runs A Strong Race At Gateway
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Building Momentum
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Finishes Where He Began Sunday
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Eventually Moved Up To Fourth On Sunday
Joey Logano4 days ago

Finds Way To Third Place On Sunday
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Takes Second Place At Gateway
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Wins At Gateway For Third Win Of Season
Kai Kara-France4 days ago

Suffers Controversial Split-Decision Loss
Alex Caceres4 days ago

Pulls Off Action-Packed Co-Main-Event Win
Anthony Duclair5 days ago

Scores Fourth Playoff Goal
Jack Eichel5 days ago

Opens Stanley Cup Finals With Two Assists
Jonathan Marchessault5 days ago

Extends Point Streak With Another Goal
Jim Miller5 days ago

Adds To All-Time Wins Total With Big Knockout
Tim Elliott5 days ago

Dominates To Take Decision Win
Karine Silva5 days ago

Locks In Submission For First-Round Win
MMA5 days ago

Abubakar Nurmagomedov Takes Loss In Close Decision Call
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

The Favorite To Win Gateway After Strong Practice
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Really Happy With His Chances At Gateway
NASCAR5 days ago

B.J. McLeod Does Not Start Last This Week
Ty Dillon5 days ago

Starts 33rd At Gateway On Sunday
Gray Gaulding5 days ago

Debuts At Gateway On Sunday
Noah Gragson5 days ago

Begins 32nd For Gateway On Sunday
Ryan Preece5 days ago

May Have Long Afternoon Sunday
Erik Jones5 days ago

Another DFS Possibility For Gateway
Justin Haley5 days ago

Can Move Up On Sunday Again
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace Needs To Keep It Together Sunday