WR Target and Snap Count Risers from Week 12

December 1, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important risers and fallers in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for fantasy football wide receivers before Week 13.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. The most important matchups of your season are about to unfold, and it is critical for you to utilize the tools that you have available. This will help you maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

This article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. The information will bolster your efforts to decide which wide receivers should be in your lineups as you plan for Week 13, while also helping you determine which receivers to depend on during the impending fantasy playoffs. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from 12 weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 12.

Overall Targets  

Julio Jones has ascended into the overall lead in targets for the season (125), while Adam Thielen is now directly behind Jones with 124, followed by Antonio Brown (122), Odell Beckham Jr. (115), Stefon Diggs (114), Davante Adams (114), Jarvis Landry (111), JuJu Smith-Schuster (110) and DeAndre Hopkins (102). No other wide receivers have reached 100 targets through 12 weeks, although Mike Evans (99), Michael Thomas (97), Keenan Allen (94), Tyreek Hill (94), Emmanuel Sanders (92), and Robert Woods (90) have all attained 90+.

Smith-Schuster collected the most targets in Week 12 (17), which was his highest weekly total since Week 2. He was joined by nine other receivers who were targeted at least 10 times during their matchups - Jones (14), Ridley (13), Brown (13), Sanders (12), Jermaine Kearse (12), Diggs (11), Hilton (10), Josh Doctson (10) and Marcell Ateman (10). Amari Cooper, Thielen, D.J. Moore, and Beckham all collected nine targets during their contests, while eight players received eight targets.

Diggs, Beckham, and Thielen have all attained double-digit targets in eight different contests, while Jones and Brown have accomplished it seven times. Diggs’ target results are noteworthy since he has only played in 10 games, after missing Week 9 due to a rib issue.

Diggs and Jones now lead all receivers in targets-per-game (11.4), followed by Thielen (11.3), and Brown (11.1), while only four other receivers are averaging at least 10-per-game - Beckham (10.5), Adams (10.4), Landry (10.1), and Smith-Schuster (10). Landry's overall target results disguise an increasingly serious issue for his owners that will be discussed in the 5 Things That I Noticed section.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Ridley’s first foray into double-digit targeting enabled him to register the largest weekly increase (+9), as he only received four in Week 11. The weekly totals for Smith-Schuster and Kearse rose by +7, while Sanders and John Brown had their weekly totals expand by +6.

It was the second consecutive week in which Smith-Schuster has captured at least 10 targets. While Kearse’s name might initially be more surprising, he has now reached double-digits in three of his last six contests (Weeks 6, 8, 12) after having a season-high 12 passes launched in his direction.

After averaging 4.9 targets-per-game heading into Week 11, Doctson has collected 17 during Washington’s last two matchups, including the season-best 10 that he captured when the Redskins faced NFC East rival Dallas. D.J. Moore established a new season-high for the second consecutive week by collecting the aforementioned nine against Seattle, while Ateman has now been targeted 15 times during his first two NFL games.

A collection of receivers did not present their owners with results that were nearly as favorable, beginning with Alshon Jeffery. In his first four games after returning from a lingering shoulder issue, Jeffery averaged nearly 10-targets-per-game (9.75), while reaching double-digit totals in Weeks 7-8 (9, 8, 12, 10). But that average has regressed to an uncomfortable level (5.25) in Weeks 8-12, which includes the season-low three that he received in Week 12 (5, 8, 5, 3).

Julian Edelman stockpiled 56 targets in the first six games following his return from suspension, which resulted in an impressive 9.3 target-per-game average during that span (Weeks 4-10). But upon New England’s return from the Week 11 bye, he collected a season-low five targets in Week 12 (9, 7, 8, 10, 10, 12, 5). Owners should not be overly concerned, as his regression should be an aberration.

Larry Fitzgerald had averaged 9.5 targets-per-game from Weeks 6-10, as he accumulated a total of 38 during that four-game sequence. But he has only been targeted six times in the Cardinals’ last two contests, including a meager two in Week 12. After Willie Snead led the Ravens with eight targets in Week 11, he was not targeted even once against the Raiders in Week 12.  However, the largest decrease was registered by Zay Jones (-10), who was targeted 11 times by Matt Barkley during the Bills’ previous matchup but only received one with Josh Allen under center in Week 12.

Red Zone Targets

Adams and Smith-Schuster are tied for the overall lead in red zone targets for the season (23), while Thomas is the only other receiver who has reached 20 for the year. Beckham is next with 19, followed by Hopkins (17), then Brown, Landry, and Thielen with 16. Shepard (15), and Green (14) complete the top 10, while Hilton, Cooks, and Davis have all collected 13. Diggs and Edelman are next with 12, while 13 other receivers have reached double-digits for the season.

Sanders entered Week 12 without a red zone target since Week 7, but that unwanted streak was eviscerated when he was targeted a whopping five times by Case Keenum during  Denver's matchup with the Steelers. That easily gave Sanders the highest number of red zone opportunities for the week.

Kearse collected a season-high four targets, which enabled him to attain the league's second-largest total, while Adams and Julio Jones were next with three. Jones has now received three targets in two of Atlanta’s last three games.

Hopkins paces all receivers with 13 targets inside the 10, followed by Thomas with 11. Hilton and Godwin are next with nine, followed by Smith-Schuster and Davis with eight.

Largest Increases And Decreases

The five targets that Sanders attained nearly doubled his season total (11) and easily gave the nine-year veteran the highest increase in red zone opportunities for the week.  Kearse, Adams, and Jones all improved their weekly totals by +3, as Kearse has now collected four targets during his last two games. The three red zone targets that were distributed to Adams propelled him into the current tie for the overall lead in this category.

Julio Jones has now collected exactly three targets during three different contests but hasn’t received any targets in Atlanta’s other eight matchups. Demaryius Thomas obtained his first two red zone targets since being traded to Houston, while Ridley, Mike Williams, Callaway, Trey Quinn, and Baltimore’s tandem of Crabtree and Brown also captured two during their matchups.

Zay Jones was the recipient of this week’s largest decline (-3), as he had attained three targets during Buffalo’s previous contest before Josh Allen’s return vaporized his involvement. Hopkins, Fitzgerald, and Ridley all experienced a reduction of -2 after they failed to register a red zone target in Week 12.

Snap Counts  

Hopkins has recaptured the lead in offensive snaps for the season 746. Brown is seven snaps behind (739), followed by Robert Woods (725) and Thielen (721). Landry (698), Adams (675), and Golladay lead a total of 18 other receivers that have performed on at least 600 snaps.

From a percentage standpoint, Hopkins has paced all receivers throughout the year, and nothing has changed at the conclusion of Week 12 game action. His 99.3% remains ahead of Thielen (96.8%), Woods (96.5%), Brown (94.6%) - followed by both Adams (93.9%) and Beckham (93.9%).

Adams led all receivers in Week 12 by performing on 100% of Green Bay's offensive snaps. Golladay Hopkins and Jeffrey all played on 98% of their team's snaps and were joined by Boyd (97%), Thielen (97%), Davis (96%) and Kenny Stills (96%) in exceeding 95%. Zay Jones (95%), Diggs (94%) Enunwa (94%) and Doctson (94%) were next among the collection of receivers who attained a 90%+ snap count for the week.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Ryan Switzer's surge from his previous season-best count of 37% to the 67% that he registered in Week 12 is intriguing. While that might have been a byproduct of matchups versus the Broncos secondary, owners who are searching for a WR3 streamer in Week 14 should keep Switzer in mind. He will be the beneficiary of an outstanding matchup with Oakland, and the Raider pass defense should surrender sizable yardage to any Steeler that is running routes in the slot.

One of the most noteworthy regressions did not directly impact many owners. However, the 42% decline in snaps for Chris Hogan did underscore a change in usage for New England's pass-catching options in Week 12. The -22% drop for Landry is more significant and provides the perfect segue into this week's Five Things I Noticed section.

Five Things That I Noticed

1. While Jarvis Landry is currently seventh overall among all receivers in targets for the season, that number conceals the decline that has occurred since Freddie Kitchens became the play caller in Week 9. Landry’s overall total was constructed primarily through the extensive targeting that he received earlier this season, as he attained double-digit targets in seven of Cleveland’s first eight contests, including three games during which he was targeted 15 times (Weeks 1, 3, 7). That resulted in an outstanding target-per-game average of 11.75 during that span. But in three games with Kitchens as offensive coordinator, Landry has averaged just 5.6 targets-per-game including just five in both Weeks 11 and 12 (7, 5, 5). He has also received just one red zone target since Kitchens began scripting the offense, after collecting 15 during Cleveland’s previous eight games. If Landry is winning his personal matchups on the field, Baker Mayfield will locate him. But that principle also applies to Cleveland’s other receiving options, and there will be no obligatory force-feeding of Landry in the Browns' revamped offensive approach.

2. Amari Cooper has now averaged eight targets-per-game during his first four games as a Cowboy, and his consistent usage has made him a reliable weekly option in the process. Dak Prescott has launched at least eight passes in Cooper’s direction in three of the last four contests after Cooper received a team-high nine against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. He has led Dallas in targets during each of those games, while seven of the 11 red zone targets that he has collected this season were attained since his trade to Dallas. Owners should be elated with the integral role that he now absorbed in his new environment, and the outrageous fluctuations in his weekly target totals that were so prevalent during his tenure with Oakland are no longer an issue. He is the unquestioned WR1 for Dallas, will be deployed frequently during each upcoming matchup, and can be used with extreme confidence moving forward.

3. Detroit's passing attack ranked sixth in 2017, and the Lions entered this season with last year’s WR4 in standard scoring (Marvin Jones), a second receiver who had averaged 93 receptions and yards 1,056 yards from 2014-2017 (Golden Tate), and a gifted second-year receiver who appeared capable of giving the Lions a full trio of productive options (Kenny Golladay). But Detroit has undergone an aggressive and seemingly unnecessary deconstruction of what had been a potent passing attack, which has combined with the season-ending injury to Jones (knee) to leave Matthew Stafford with a razor-thin level of weaponry. However, this provides a massive opportunity for Golladay, who has accumulated 36 targets in his last three contests and will continue to be the focus of Detroit’s aerial attack. Owners who are searching for a consistent WR3 can also seize Bruce Ellington from the waiver wire. Ellington joined the team in November but has garnered 16 targets in his first two games as a Lion. He will not deliver astronomical yardage totals, but he is a legitimate roster addition in PPR leagues.

4. There is a convergence of favorable factors that should make D.J. Moore owners ecstatic. First, he has led Carolina wide receivers in targets for two consecutive weeks (8,9) while collecting 15 of those passes for 248 yards and a touchdown. Devin Funchess has been contending with a back issue which could keep him sidelined for a second consecutive week while further entrenching Moore as a trusted weapon for Cam Newton. Curtis Samuel has now encountered a hamstring injury and is unlikely to perform at 100% even if he does take the field when the Panthers face Tampa Bay on Sunday. During the initial weeks of the season, Carolina’s offense appeared to contain a mammoth number of mouths to feed. But as we reach the threshold of fantasy playoff matchups, a path has been expanded for Moore to join Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen as Newton's primary receiving weapons.

5. I will admit to investing heavily in Josh Doctson last season, and remaining steadfast in my optimism that his size and route running acumen would eventually result in favorable and consistent production. But the results were disappointing, and there was nothing about a pairing with Alex Smith this season that resuscitated any confidence that he should be retained on a roster. While the horrific injury (multiple fractures) that ended Smith's season is unfortunate, the insertion of Colt McCoy under center vaults Doctson into consideration as a WR3 streaming component. He captured a team-high 10 targets during McCoy's first full game as Washington's starter, which was also his highest total this season. He also performed on 93% of the Redskins' offensive snaps in Week 12 and is now operating with a signal caller who will be willing to launch contested throws. That should provide Doctson with a favorable number of opportunities each week. At a minimum, he is worthy of a roster stash if you can comfortably create space, and he could develop into far more during the weeks that remain.

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