Willy Adames to the Brewers - Fantasy Impact

May 25, 2021

The Tampa Bay Rays traded shortstop Willy Adames to the Milwaukee Brewers late in the month of May. Michael Grennell examines his fantasy baseball value, the value of the other three players involved in the deal, and Tampa Bay prospects who will be vying for playing time at shortstop.

We've had quite a few minor trades already happen this season, but on Friday we had the biggest trade yet in terms of potential fantasy impact for this season as the Rays and Brewers completed a four-player deal. Here's how that broke down:

Brewers receive: SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards
Rays receive: RHP J.P. Feyereisen, RHP Drew Rasmussen

The Rays shored up a bullpen that has dealt with numerous injuries this season, while Milwaukee gets an upgrade at shortstop. The biggest part of this deal that fantasy managers are looking at right now doesn't even involve any of the players involved in this trade. We've got faces in new places and prospects to speculate on. We'll open things up by looking at what I'm sure most of you reading this are more interested in: the prospect situation in Tampa Bay at shortstop.

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Will the next Rays shortstop please stand up?

As soon as news broke that Adames was on the move, fantasy managers instantly began to wonder if this meant Wander Franco was going to get the call to join Tampa Bay. Or if not Franco, maybe Vidal Brujan? So managers everywhere who were repeatedly smashing the F5 button finally read the news late on Friday that the Rays were calling up shortstop prospect......Taylor Walls.

Who?

Walls was a third-round pick out of Florida State University in the 2017 draft. Over his four years in the minors, Walls has a career .279/.369/.417 triple-slash line with 19 homers and 66 steals. Along with displaying the potential to reach double-digit home runs with 25 steals, Walls has also shown some pretty solid plate discipline with a career 18.8 percent strikeout rate and 12.5 percent walk rate. He had looked great early on at Triple-A this year, slashing .327/.468/.490 with two home runs, two steals, 10 RBI and 11 runs scored over 14 games. So it's not all that surprising that he got the call.

Through his first two games in the majors, he's hitting 3-for-8 with just one strikeout, two doubles and two runs scored. Walls may not have been the prospect managers were hoping for, but he looks like a guy that could bring good value to a roster in AL-only formats and 14-team and deeper mixed leagues — with the potential to become relevant in shallower leagues if he hits well at the plate over the next couple weeks.

But where does that leave Brujan and Franco? Well, I can start out by saying that managers shouldn't be holding their breath over Franco, as a report last week suggests the Rays have no plans to rush him to the majors anytime soon. The gist of that report is that due to Franco's age and the fact that he's playing at Triple-A this year after last appearing at Single-A in 2019, the team wants to give him time to refine his approach at the plate. That being said, Franco has looked good early on at Triple-A, slashing .268/.329/.507 with three home runs, one steal, 12 RBI and 13 runs scored in 17 games.

Granted, plans can change at any time. For example, I don't think many people were expecting Juan Soto to make the jump all the way to the majors back in 2018, so it's possible we could see Franco in Tampa Bay sooner than later. If I had to make a prediction I don't think we'll see him up with the Rays before August.

I think we'll see Brujan sooner than Franco. In fact, when the trade news broke, I assumed that this would mean Brujan would be joining Tampa Bay. Brujan is in his sixth year in the minors this season, having slashed .295/.379/.426 with 26 home runs and 158 steals over his career. His best season so far came in 2018, where he slashed .320/.403/.459 with nine home runs, 55 steals, 53 RBI and 112 runs scored between Single-A and High-A. This year could shape up to be even better, as he is slashing .319/.405/.638 with seven home runs, seven steals, 18 RBI and 17 runs scored in just 17 games at Triple-A. He's also shown great plate discipline with a 17.7 percent strikeout rate and 12.7 percent walk rate this year, as he now owns a career 11.3 percent strikeout rate and 10.6 percent walk rate.

For all the deserved hype that Franco gets, I'm a bit more excited for Brujan's potential in fantasy this year. I just grabbed him off the waiver-wire this weekend to stash in our Rotoballer staff league. Whether it's due to underperforming or an injury, one way or another I think we'll see Brujan in Tampa Bay by the end of June.

Milwaukee meliorates middle infield, middle relief

After a rough week for Brewers shortstop Luis Urias, the Brewers get a slight boost to their middle infield defense with Adames. However, in terms of offense, Urias has gotten off to a slightly better start at the plate this season:

That being said, there are some signs of a potential bounce-back incoming for Adames:

While his xBA and walk rate have taken a dip from 2020, the rest of his Statcast metrics have improved — including career-bests in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Assuming that he can rebound like his metrics suggest he should, Adames should be able to reach around 20 home runs again by year's end. However, that low average and lack of speed makes it difficult to recommend rostering Adames in anything outside of deep-mixed leagues or NL-only formats.

As for the other player heading to Milwaukee, Richards is looking like he could be a solid pitcher to roster in SV/HLD formats. He picked up one hold and one save in six appearances with Tampa Bay, and his current 31.5 percent strikeout rate is the best mark of his career. He won't have much value in the majority of formats and there's a long list of guys ahead of him in the Brewers bullpen before he could even sniff regular save opportunities, but he should be a solid enough high-strikeout guy to roster in deeper SV/HLD formats.

Rays restock on relievers

Last but not least, we'll take a look at the pair of relievers heading to Tampa Bay.

The short answer: Yeah you can pretty much ignore these guys outside of SV/HLD formats.

The long answer: Feyereisen looks to be a great option in SV/HLD formats, especially now that he's in Tampa Bay. He had recorded nine holds in 21 games with Milwaukee this season, and two games into his Tampa Bay career he already has nailed down a save. More importantly, he has been a strikeout machine with a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 42.1 percent whiff rate, which ranks him in the 70th and 99th percentiles respectively. Along with that, his ERA appears to be mostly legitimate as he sports a 2.95 ERA versus a 3.07 xERA. The one drawback is his career-worst 14.3 percent walk rate, but if he can cut down on that in Tampa Bay, he should end up becoming one of the better options in SV/HLD formats by the end of the year.

Rasmussen has very similar numbers to Feyereisen, but he doesn't have quite the potential that I see in Feyereisen. While Rasmussen has been slightly unlucky on the mound with a 4.24 ERA against a 3.73 xERA, he's been even worse than Feyereisen when it comes to walks as he sports a 15.6 percent walk rate. He's got a higher strikeout rate at 32.5 percent, but it's still hard to recommend managers target Rasmussen over Feyereisen even with the better strikeout numbers.

Fantasy Bottom Line

After all is said and done, the players in this deal that are likely to have the biggest impact in fantasy this year didn't even swap teams. Walls is worth taking a look at in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats, but he is not a guy managers should be breaking the bank to acquire. If you've got the space to stash a guy, start looking at Franco or Brujan. My money is on Brujan having the biggest fantasy impact this season.

As for the four players switching teams, Feyereisen looks to have the best fantasy potential going forward, albeit in SV/HLD formats only. Rasmussen and Richards can be looked at in deeper SV/HLD formats, while Adames should remain on the waiver wire until he can show signs of life at the plate.

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