RADIO
Welcome back to Power Pivots! I hope everyone had a successful and profitable Week 4. The season is moving right along and as we head to Week 5 we have a pretty solid feel for players and teams. Veterans of multiple NFL DFS seasons are well-aware that things can often get tougher as the season chugs along. Pricing becomes tighter, with injuries and bye weeks limiting the player pool. This week is interesting for what players aren't available on the DraftKings main slate, with some heavy-hitters like Brady, Elliot, Hopkins, and the Saints trio all unavailable.
I continue to stress process over results in this article. An integral part of that process is our ability to adapt each week to an ever-changing NFL DFS landscape. As we get into the heart of the season, it's easy to fall into a comfortable routine and begin relying on the same strategy and players every week. This is a friendly little reminder to look at each slate with a fresh set of eyes and a curious mind.
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 5 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Ben Roethlisberger ($6,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10.80% *UPDATED: 12.9%
POWER PIVOT: Matt Ryan ($6.600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 6.87% *UPDATED: 7.9%
I see no need to get cute at the QB position this week. Pricing has become so compressed at QB that most weeks there isn't a huge incentive to spend down at the position. I'm seeing some love for Blake Bortles at $5,500 in a dream spot against KC and he's a legitimate option if you find yourself in a salary crunch. Big Ben is the highest priced signal-caller on the slate and leads ownership projections at 10.80%. He's in a great spot, but I'm totally fine with taking the small discount and lower ownership with Atlanta's Matt Ryan.
After an ugly season-opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, Ryan has been hotter than an August day in Atlanta, averaging 35.7 DK points per game over his last three. He finds himself in another home-run situation this week in a matchup against the imploding Pittsburgh Steelers. The game carries the highest Vegas Over/Under of the week at 57.5 with Atlanta's team total at a shade over 27 points. This one has shootout written all over it, with both offenses possessing high-octane weapons and both defenses really struggling.
Ryan draws a Steelers D that ranks 26th in yards allowed per pass. This sets up perfectly for the Falcons explosive passing attack, which has discovered a very nice weapon in Calvin Ridley. The emergence of the rookie has really opened up Atlanta's offense. Ryan has looked confident and accurate, while piling up yards and touchdowns the past three weeks. I love the game script in this one, as we should see both offenses being forced to attack for four quarters.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much movement with our two highlighted QB's. Blake Bortles at $5,500 has surged up the ownership projection model and currently sits just under 10%. I think Derek Carr is also a viable discount option at just $5,200 and around 5% projected ownership. I would also throw in a guy that's going overlooked in Kirk Cousins. The Vikes QB falls in the middle pricing-wise at $6,000, but is only expected to garner a miniscule ownership of 3.25%.
RB CHALK: T.J. Yeldon ($5,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 25.05% *UPDATED: 25.72%
POWER PIVOT: Kareem Hunt ($5,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 9.11% *UPDATED: 7.62%
T.J. Yeldon sits atop the RB ownership projections as Leonard Fournette is expected to be out once again with a nagging hamstring injury. Yeldon is a solid play in a great spot against Kansas City.
Believe it or not, I'm actually more interested in the other RB in this matchup... KC's Kareem Hunt. I know, I know, Hunt is facing the big, bad Jaguars defense. I realize that this will be a tough test for him, but it's a spot that I find myself willing to bet on talent.
Even though the Jags are one the best defenses in the league, the high-powered Chiefs still enter the game with a Vegas team total of 26 points as a 3-point home favorite and despite Hunt's fantasy production increasing every week this season, his DraftKings salary has decreased by $900 from Week 4 to a season-low $5,800 this week due to the tough matchup.
We are all well aware of the emergence of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs exciting passing attack, but Hunt is quietly receiving a very solid workload, logging carry counts of 16-18-18-19 through the first four weeks. His lack of use in the passing game is a bit concerning, but he did receive a season-high four targets against Denver last week, which he converted into three catches for 54 yards. I'm also happy with Hunt's redzone role, as he ranks fourth in the NFL in RB carries inside the 10-yard line with 10.
Is this a terrific matchup? No...but with ownership projected at around 9% and a decent/good game script not out of the question, Hunt has the talent and usage to post the type of score that can win GPP's.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Both Yeldon and Hunt are holding steady. Big names like Gordon, McCaffery, and Gurley are near the top of ownership projections. A couple of injury notes...Devonta Freeman will return from injury in an expected shootout against Pittsburgh, though I personally will pass on him. I'm much more interested in Cincy's Joe Mixon at $6,900. With Gio Bernard ruled out of Sunday's game against Miami, Mixon should be thrown straight into the fire as a true workhorse player and receive all the touches he can handle.
WR CHALK: Antonio Brown ($9,100)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 28.12% *UPDATED: 24.05%
POWER PIVOT: Adam Thielen ($7,700)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7.03% *UPDATED: 12.60%
Let me be clear, I'm not the guy telling you to leave Antonio Brown out of your lineup...BUT he is really expensive. If you find yourself having trouble fitting him in, I really like the notion of dropping down to Adam Thielen at $7,700.
The Minnesota WR has been rock-solid in 2018 and is reaping the benefits of the offseason signing of Kirk Cousins at QB. Between the talent upgrade at quarterback and the Vikings surprisingly leaky defense, Thielen has been a usage monster this season, averaging a massive 14 targets per game, good for a 29% share of Minnesota's team targets, and he ranks fourth in the NFL with 521 air yards. Thielen has made the most of his opportunities by going over 100 receiving yards in all four games and averaging 27.8 DraftKings points per game, while AB has failed to crack 100 yards in a single game and averages 18.6 DK points per game.
Brown has a dream matchup this week, but Thielen is in a sneaky good spot against a Philly defense that ranks a middling 15th in yards allowed per pass and has been routinely lit up by opposing WR's this year. We are also looking at a true funnel situation, with Minnesota struggling to run the ball and Philly allowing the 2nd fewest yards per rushing attempt in the NFL. We shouldn't be at all surprised if the Vikes are forced to go to the air this week. While Minnesota's projected team total of 21 points pales in comparison to Pittsburgh's projected team total of 30 points, I think this game has a chance to go significantly over the Over/Under of 45.5. It's easy to envision both of these defenses continuing to struggle. Thielen offers an excellent floor at around a quarter of AB's ownership, not to mention a $1,400 price break.
SATURDAY UPDATE: We've seen some market correction on Thielen, as his projected ownership has nearly doubled since Wednesday. I expect that number to continue climbing due to AB being so difficult to fit in lineups at $9,100. Injury notes...there is a really interesting situation brewing in Green Bay, as Randall Cobb has already been ruled out, Geronimo Allison is doubtful and still in concussion protocol, and Davante Adams is now questionable with a calf injury. I expect Adams to play and be a target monster, but this is a situation worth monitoring closely as theoretically GB could be without it's entire starting receiving corps. On the other side of that matchup, Marvin Jones Jr. recently popped up on the injury report. If he can't go, both Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay would see usage bumps. Travis Benjamin has been ruled out for the Chargers, which makes Mike Williams a boom-or-bust discount option at just $4,200.
TE CHALK: Travis Kelce ($6,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 17.30% *UPDATED: 16.12%
POWER PIVOT: Jared Cook ($4,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 9.52% *UPDATED: 12.29%
Tight end is a tricky position that can often lead to frustration. Maybe it's just my perception, but I feel that lots of people will often-times just go straight to the top of the salary scale to be "safe". Early ownership projections show that to be the case this week, with the highest-priced TE Travis Kelce expected to garner a 17% ownership share. While Kelce is certainly capable of having a nice game, he draws a very tough matchup with the Jacksonville secondary.
I'm drawn to a cheaper TE this week that has the opposite of a tough matchup. Oakland's Jared Cook is set to face-off against an LA Chargers defense that has played well below preseason expectations. The Chargers rank a horrible 29th in yards allowed per pass and are coming off a week in which they were flamed by San Fran TE George Kittle and backup QB C.J. Beatherd. The Chargers leaky defense should only encourage a pass-happy Oakland offense that is averaging a massive 42.25 pass attempts per game.
Cook is seeing more than his fair share of those pass attempts, as he is running a huge amount of pass routes and averaging nearly nine targets per game. The Oakland TE brings both a nice ceiling and GPP upside to the table in this matchup. His redzone work is a DFS dream, as he's tied for the NFL lead with targets inside the 10-yard line. This game trails only Pitt vs Atl in projected point total, with an Over/Under of 53.5 points. Oakland's team total is nearly 25 points and in a game that has shootout potential, I can definitely see Cook getting something like 10 targets with a couple of redzone looks this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Cook is gaining some steam as DFS players search for value in this week of tight pricing. Kelce is holding steady, but I still can't see paying up for him this week. The biggest mover at the TE position is Pittsburgh's Vance McDonald. At only $3,700 he's skyrocketed to the top of ownership projections at 18.54%. He's a legit option in a game with a massive total, but be prepared to eat the chalk. Circling back to the Packers WR situation, Jimmy Graham would be in line for a large target boost if one or both of Adams/Allison are ruled out.
D/ST CHALK: Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13.77% *UPDATED: 9.28%
POWER PIVOT: Carolina Panthers ($3,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 5.59% *UPDATED: 9.53%
I've got a little challenge for my readers this week. It's going to require a tiny bit of your time and a small bit of effort, but I think it's a nice exercise to do occasionally. Increase the amount of time you normally spend on DEF/ST research by 50%. If you usually spend 10 minutes, make it 15 mins this week. Normally an hour, make it an hour and a half. Defensive performance can have such a "crap-shoot" feel to it, that it's easy to develop bad habits when choosing one. As always, we want to focus on the process rather than the results and increasing the amount of time you spend on DEF/ST might not show immediate results, but it will without a doubt strengthen your research process going forward. Ok, rant over!
Baltimore is drawing tons of interest at $2,800 in a matchup with Cleveland. It's a nice spot for the Ravens, but I'm strongly considering pivoting UP in salary to the Carolina Panthers at $3,300 and about a third of Baltimore's projected ownership. The Panthers are seven-point home favorites this week against the New York Giants in a game with an Over/Under of 44.5. Nothing really jumps off the page statistically, though New York does have a meager projected team total of only 18.8 points and sits near the bottom of the league in most offensive stat categories.
This is as much a play against the New York offense as it is on the Carolina defense. The G-Men haven't yet found a rhythm under new coach Pat Shurmur. Rookie RB Saquon Barkley is ridiculously talented, but is stuck behind a legit terrible offensive line. Odell Beckham Jr. is getting targets, but has yet to find the endzone in 2018. Carolina will attempt to bottle up both Barkley and OBJ by controlling the pace and clock, while attacking the Giants weak offensive line in obvious passing situations. There's a good chance this becomes an old school, grind-it-out game with both offenses playing at a molasses pace.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Carolina has now drawn neck and neck with Baltimore at around 9% ownership for both teams. DEF/ST will be interesting this week, as there aren't really any slam dunk plays on the board and most viable options are sitting in the 6-10% ownership range. I challenged you to spend a little more time on DEF/ST this week in the original write-up, I hope you will do so, as this is a week where extra research could uncover a slight edge.
