RADIO
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Patriots continued to cement themselves as the premier fantasy defense in football, and San Francisco, Baltimore, and Cleveland took advantage of prime matchups. We also had Chicago catapult into the top-10 once Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown were ruled out, but that didn't mean we got spared surprises. A Titans defense that was coming in red hot dropped the ball against the Texans, the Chiefs manhandled the Cowboys, and the Bills completely imploded in a loss to the Colts. There truly are very few sure things when it comes to fantasy defenses this year, but we finished with six of the top 10 defenses in Week 11, which I guess is not a bad beat.
However, looking ahead to Week 12 is one of the more complicated situations we've run into so far this season. It seems like every offense we like to attack is matched up against a defense we really don't want to play. The Jets face the Texans. The Lions face the Bears. The Falcons face the Jaguars. I mean, somewhere out there, somebody is going to be playing a bad defense and just crossing their fingers and praying.
If you've been reading my work for long enough, you know that I hate doing that. I'd much rather play an elite defense in a mediocre matchup than a bad defense in a good matchup. Essentially, I'd rather take the consistent floor of a Philadelphia or Minnesota over the potential upside of a streamer in a good matchup. However, even that is hard this week with the Bills, Packers, Rams, and Bucs all playing offenses we typically want to avoid. I'll do my best to make sense of the week ahead, but my early advice is not to search for that juicy matchup. Play something safe and live to fight another day.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly, as I did by bumping the Bears into the top-10 once it was clear Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown were out.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 12 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 354.8 yards per game and 23.4 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 12 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
Before we get started, if you're looking for Rest of Season Rankings, check the article here or keep an eye on the GoogleSheet here which I will update every week.
The Patriots finally leapfrogged the Bills for first place in the AFC East and continue to put the heat on for the #1 spot in the BOD rankings. The Patriots are 1st in the league in percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, 3rd in turnover rate, 3rd in yards per play, and 6th in pressure rate. They're the number one defense over the last four weeks and are just getting it done at every level of the defense right now. While the Titans are not statistically a great matchup, they're also not one I'm going to shy away from if I have the Patriots. Without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, this is a rather pedestrian offense that just lost to the Texans. With the weird matchups we have this week, I'm taking the security of the Patriots at the top spot.
However, the Panthers aren't far behind. Nobody wants to take the Panthers seriously, but they just keep showing up on defense every week. They may not be a consistent top-10 finisher, but they're the 6th-ranked defense over the last four weeks and always seem to put up a solid score. That consistency is not something we should be turning our noses up at. They're 2nd in yards allowed per play, 5th in percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, 2nd in pressure rate, and 2nd in sacks. Now they get a Miami offense that has shown a little bit more life of late but remains the 6th-worst offense in terms of fantasy points allowed. They're 24th in sacks allowed through 11 games, and I think the Panthers pass rush is going to get home repeatedly on Sunday.
Dallas may have been trounced on Sunday against the Chiefs, but you can't really blame their defense. The Cowboys let up 370 total yards, but they also held the Chiefs to one offensive touchdown, picked Patrick Mahomes off once, and sacked him three times. They're 4th in the league in turnover rate, and I expect them to come out firing against a Las Vegas team that has just looked listless in the last three games. With all of the off-field drama surrounding the team, it's not hard to imagine that it's begun to seep onto the playing field as the team has scored 43 total points across the last three games, while turning the ball over once each game and failing to top 300 total yards in two of three games. Considering the defenses in question were the Giants, Bengals, and Chiefs, it's not a good sign for what the Raiders will do against the Cowboys.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
The Bills drop out of the first tier for the first time in a few weeks; however, I still believe they are one of the best defenses in fantasy - depending on the health of some key players. Stud middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds missed Sunday's game with a hamstring injury and run-stuffing defensive tackle Stair Lotulelei was put on the COVID-IL, and then the world saw how much that took the bite out of the Bills run defense. They had no answers for Jonathan Taylor and likely would have no answers for Alvin Kamara, only Kamara didn't practice on Monday and the Bills are hoping Edmunds returns for Thursday. A lot is in flux, but if Kamara doesn't play on Thursday, this just isn't that potent of an offense and I don't expect Trevor Siemian to have a lot of success passing against this Bills secondary.
Don't look now, but the Eagles are on a bit of a roll and are the 2nd-ranked defense over the last four weeks. While they allowed the aforementioned Saints to total 323 yards on Sunday, they also sacked Siemian three times and picked him off twice, returning one of them for a touchdown. The week before that, they held the Broncos to only 13 points, sacking Teddy Bridgewater once and forcing a turnover. It's not elite production, but it's solid production, which is enough to make them startable against a Giants offense that continues to show little dynamic upside and is a bit of a chaotic mess.
Tennessee did not look good against the Texans, but we also need to pump the brakes a bit on comparing Mac Jones to Tom Brady. The Patriots gained 308 total yards against a bad Falcons defense while allowing three sacks and turning the ball over once. The Patriots are 16th in sacks allowed, 24th in turnovers, and 17th in yards per play, so it's a fairly average offense. The Titans remain a solid pass-rushing team that's 9th in the NFL in sacks and 11th in QB hurry rate, which has helped make Tennessee the 8th-ranked defense over the last four weeks. I think both of these defenses can be playable this week.
I can't believe I have the Texans this high, but I told you this week was a little bit crazy. For starters, Houston is the 11th-ranked defense over the last four weeks, so it's not as though we're elevating them out of the depths and anointing them with a tier two birth. They get very little in the way of a pass rush, but they're 7th in the NFL in turnover rate, which is where they've been making their fantasy hay, which is good news because they are now going up against a Jets offense that is last in the NFL in turnover rate. With Joe Flacco likely under center again, and behind an offensive line that ranks 25th in sacks allowed, it's possible that Houston can even get to the quarterback a couple of times as well. There's a reason the Jets allow the 4th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, and I'm going to trust Houston to keep that going, especially now that Michael Carter is sidelined for the next two to three weeks.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
Carolina is no longer as much of a pushover on offense now that Sam Darnold is out of the picture, now allowing the 10th-most points to fantasy defenses after being in the top-5 for much of the season. Still, being in the top-10 isn't particularly great, and Cam Newton has been known to turn the ball over from time to time. This offensive line is 21st in sacks allowed, and the offense as a whole ranks 25th in turnover rate. That's going to be a problem against this Dolphins team that has begun to find the turnover magic they had last season. Miami has seven turnovers in their last three games, which is a big reason why they are the 3rd-ranked defense over that span. I think you can fire them up with relative confidence this week, even with Christian McCaffrey back.
I really don't know what to make of this Ravens-Browns game. Both defenses have shown strong upside and also completely flopped. Both offenses have shown the ability to put up massive point totals and also totally fallen on their faces. They're both top-10 in pressure rate but bottom-third of the NFL in turnover rate. Cleveland is 6th in yards allowed per play and Baltimore is 31st, but Baltimore is 6th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score while Cleveland is 18th. They could both be top-5 defenses this week or both could be outside of the top-20. I've kind of thrown my hands up with them at this point.
Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay both fall into Tier Three because of tough matchups. The Vikings have been the slightly better defense on the season, but the Packers have been the 10th-best defense overall over the last four weeks. Still, a game against the Rams, who are coming off of a bye and had two weeks to prepare is a tough ask. It also still doesn't look like the Packers will have Jaire Alexander back, which is tough against that secondary. It's why I have the Vikings slightly, as they continued to show a strong pass rush even after the injury to Danielle Hunter, but the 49ers are starting to get healthy and the receiving trio of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel is going to be near impossible for this secondary to stop. Tampa Bay came out of the bye looking strong, but Indianapolis boasts perhaps the best offensive line in football and currently allows the fewest points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. These defenses all come in as fringe top-10 units for me because of their talent and track record of success, which I think elevates their floor, but none of them are in really good spots.
Seattle, Jacksonville, and Chicago all are flawed defenses that slide their way into tier three because of plus matchups. Over the last four weeks, Jacksonville has been the best of the bunch, ranking as the 20th best fantasy defense, while Seattle and Chicago are tied at 21st. All of these defenses rank 24th or worse in turnover rate, and while the Bears lead the league in sacks, they're 28th in pressure rate, which suggests that the sack total may be a little flukey since they're not consistently getting pressure. Meanwhile, Jacksonville ranks 8th in pressure rate despite under-performing in sacks and the Seahawks are in the bottom-third in both. Jacksonville also has the best matchup of the three as Atlanta now gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Detroit gives up the 6th-most and Washington the 7th, so these are all plus matchups; however, the defenses are flawed enough that I'm not comfortable elevating them much higher.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
I see that some people are in on the Steelers and/or the Chargers this week, but there is a reason they both have fallen so far in the BOD rankings. Pittsburgh is the 16th ranked defense over the last month, while Los Angeles is 31st, with only the Jets having performed worse. Cincinnati also ranks 24th, so I'm not rushing to play them against a mediocre Pittsburgh offense, and I like the Rams, but they're the 25th-ranked fantasy defense over the last month and have a really difficult matchup against the Packers this week.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
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