RADIO
If you're a loyal RotoBaller reader, you know we strive to give you the edge no matter the fantasy sport you happen to be playing. Just a few weeks ago I took another step and introduced three metrics for fantasy football: Value Over Starter (VOS), Value Over Average (VOA), and Value Over Replacement (VOR). The idea behind the concept was simple: Take position scarcity into account and calculate how each player over/underperformed when compared to those with starter/average/replacement value at that concrete position.
With that in mind, it is easy to identify who provides the most value at each skill position, how the players pertaining to it rank in similar tiers, and who should be drafted earlier based on how much more points he provides compared to his peers.
Now that the 2019 season is well behind us and we're already locked into what is about to come in just a few months, it is time to check the draft and ADP values before the NFL draft to see who is going under the radar and who is being massively overvalued this time of the year. Let's explore the current landscape.
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Quick Framework of the VOA Metric
In order to try to find bargains and ripoffs, one thing we can do is take the 2019 VOA mark of each draftable player and put it against his current ADP to see whether or not he's going too high in drafts. We don't care a lot about the global production here in terms of fantasy points, but rather about how much distance there is between players at the same position. We're seeking the cheapest producers we can get, and trying to avoid traps just based on names and fame.
The Value Over Average metric is calculated on a PPR-league baseline. You can read all of the details here, but just so you get a quick idea of how it works let's say it just factors in the production of the best players at each position that form any 12-team league roster, leaving those sitting in the waiver wire out of the equation.
Taking that into consideration and following a made-up example, if Jon Jones got 200 PPR points in 2019 (QB1) and the QB2-to-QB24 averaged 100 PPR, then Jones' VOA would be 2.0 as he doubled the performance of those at the position.
In order to make things a little clearer here, I'll use VOA+. VOA+ puts the statistic on an easy-to-understand scale. A 100 VOA+ is average at a position (remember, in this case taking into consideration the starters and average players, not the replacement-level ones, as explained in the list above), and each point up or down is one percentage point above or below that average. In other words, if a player had a 90 VOA+ last season, that means their VOA was 10% below the average player at his position.
What makes this metric interesting is the fact that it allows us to find true outliers at each position. While there are many wide receivers and running backs with similar levels of production at their position, tight end is a clear example of a position where scarcity is glaring. Drafting a highly-productive tight end early can pay off given there are just a few of them so valuable. Instead, wasting an overly-high pick on a wide receiver might not pay off as there are many players providing the same value at much cheaper prices.
Final 2019 PPR Ranks vs. Early 2020 ADP
First, we need to explore the relation between 2019 PPR points and 2020 ADP as of this writing. Obviously, we should expect a strong relation between last year's results and this year's drafting order. Fantasy owners will try to--mostly--get those players who had great seasons last year and avoid those who dropped their production with the exception of those coming back from injury or something similar.
This is how things look right now (I have assigned an ADP of 176 to players going mostly undrafted so far, and therefore without ADP data as of this writing, thus the bunching of dots at the right side of the plot).
The R-Squared relationship between last year's PPR and this year's ADP goes all the way up to 0.66, more than a strong and clear indicator of how last year's results are impacting drafting this offseason. Even excluding those going undrafted, the relationship still holds a high-enough value of 0.44.
If you are an avid analyzer, you might have noticed the position colors I chose follow a scale ranging from red to green, which is not random at all. In fact, I based the color scale on position scarcity. There were only 10 TEs with VOA+ marks of 100+ last season, 11 QBs, 21 RBs, and 23 WRs.
Just a quick glance at the current ADP rank (as depicted in the plot) lets you know how fantasy owners are drafting exclusively running backs and wide receivers inside the first two rounds, with George Kittle the first non-WR/RB at ADP 24 barely making the cut.
Overvalued/Undervalued Players by VOA/ADP
With the data at hand, it is time to try and find some players getting off the board way earlier than they should considering the value they provide compared to other players at the position.
In order to do so in an objective way, I have made a simple calculation: VOA squared to ADP. Those with higher values would carry the best value/price and those with the lowest the worst.
Imagine two players with a VOA+ of 200 going first overall and 100th overall. You'd definitely want the second one (same production, 100 times cheaper), and in fact, his value would be much higher (200^100 against 200^1) than that of the first player.
Running Backs
Going first overall is Christian McCaffrey (ADP 1.3), which shouldn't be a surprise. He was a beast in 2019, led the league in PPR points by a mile, was even better receiving than rushing despite playing RB and no matter how expensive he is he should clearly be your No. 1 target for 2020. His VOA+ of 256 speaks volumes of how incredible McCaffrey was compared to the average RB in 2019. The price is more than justified.
What if we move down just a spot in ADP? There we find Saquon Barkley (ADP 2.5) and his 244 PPR in 2019 to go with a 129 VOA+. While those numbers are not bad, there aren't great either. Drafters are clearly overpaying for a player who didn't have his best season and was banged up, yes, but who also wasn't that good when compared to other players at his position:
- These are the RBs with VOA+ marks over Barkley's 129: Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Austin Ekeler.
- All of them are getting off the board at lower spots, thus being cheaper and potentially more valuable.
- Austin Ekeler is, in fact, the second-best value/price pick of all 557 players in the ADP data set I'm using only behind TE Darren Waller. Ekeler had a 167 VOA+ and is getting drafted at a laughable ADP of 49.5 (and remember, Melvin Gordon III is no longer with the Los Angeles Chargers).
- Other overvalued RBs getting drafted inside of the first four rounds: Kerryon Johnson (ADP 38, VOA+ 45), James Conner (43.1, 76), Devin Singletary (45, 77), David Montgomery (42.4, 90), Melvin Gordon (19.8, 95).
- Other undervalued RBs getting drafted outside of the first four rounds: Mark Ingram II (ADP 49.8, VOA+ 167), Kenyan Drake (67.3, 113), James White (85.8, 106).
Wide Receivers
The third-highest ADP currently belongs to WR Michael Thomas (4.5), who had an incredible 2019 season. Just as with McCaffrey, Thomas was so good (185 VOA+) that his price is very well worth it. But as it is always the case, just going down the board a bit we start to find inefficiencies at the WR position too:
- DeAndre Hopkins has the second-highest ADP among WRs at 7.0 with a 129 VOA+. Just one slot behind him is Davante Adams with an ADP of 9.3 and a 104 VOA+ that was this close to being average at the position. While Hopkins is not the best value at the position, he's one of just five WRs with a VOA+ north of 129+, so he's worth the price to a moderate extent. Adams, on the other hand, is the worst value of WRs with 104+ VOA+ in 2019, and it is not even close.
- Other overvalued WRs getting drafted inside of the first four rounds: Adam Thielen (ADP 36.9, VOA+ 52), T.Y. Hilton (45.9, 61), Deebo Samuel (42.4, 76), Calvin Ridley (43.5, 94), Odell Beckham Jr. (41.2, 98).
- Other undervalued WRs getting drafted outside of the first four rounds: DeVante Parker (ADP 84.7, VOA+ 120), Jarvis Landry (53.9, 115), John Brown (93.7, 104), Michael Gallup (49.3, 103), Julian Edelman (83.7, 122).
Tight Ends
The position where scarcity strikes harder finds its first player getting off the board at the end of the second round with an ADP of 24 in George Kittle. Kittle wasn't the best tight end this past season (VOA+ 155); it was Travis Kelce (177), who is currently being drafted with a 25.8 ADP. Both of those picks are well worth it considering there were only 10 tight ends with a VOA+ over 100 (there were only six with an actual VOS over 100, with Kelce ranking first and Kittle third in VOS among starters at the position).
- While Evan Engram only played eight games and that reduced his VOA+ a lot (74), he's going off the board too early (ADP 49.3, third-highest among TEs) to consider him a safe bet.
- Other overvalued TEs getting drafted inside of the first eight rounds: Noah Fant (ADP 92.4, VOA+ 78), O.J. Howard (109.4, 59), T.J Hockenson (110.1, 56), David Njoku (109.6, 10).
- Other undervalued TEs getting drafted outside of the eight rounds: Jared Cook (ADP 124.4, VOA+ 116), Tyler Higbee (142.8, 111), Dallas Goedert (105.7, 102).
- Good values even at high prices: Mark Andrews (ADP 62.6, VOA+ 147), Austin Hooper (63.8, 134), Zach Ertz (54.5, 153), Hunter Henry (70.0, 105).
Quarterbacks
The last position getting drafted as of this writing is QB. There is not much difference between No. 1 Lamar Jackson (ADP 26.1) and No. 2 Patrick Mahomes (27.1), although their 2019 performances were quite different in fantasy leagues (Jackson racked up 419.7 points to Mahomes' 289; Jackson had a 162 VOA+ and Mahomes just a 105 one). Here, obviously, numbers are lying to us a bit. Mahomes only played 14 games compared to Jackson's 15 and he didn't so at 100%. Even with that, the draft market is showing glaring inefficiencies at the position already:
- Of the 11 players with a 100+ VOA+ in 2019, only one is being drafted outside of the top-100 picks this season: free agent Jameis Winston (ADP 108.8, 113 VOA+). It makes sense considering his situation, but if he has the minimal chance of becoming a starter (think 2019 Ryan Fitzpatrick), he'd probably turn into the most valuable play at the position.
- The ageless Ryan Fitzpatrick (93) didn't make the 100 VOA+ cut but he's going 100% undrafted these days. Miami is expected to draft a quarterback, but if that man is Tua Tagovailoa and there is even the slightest concern about his availability from day one then Fitzpatrick should turn into someone worth picking off waivers or drafting as a late flier.
- Currently, Dak Prescott is by far the best value at the position. Prescott's ADP of 71.5 is just the seventh-highest at the position, puts him virtually out of the first six rounds of 12-team leagues, yet his 126 VOA+ in 2019 ranked second only behind Jackson's 162. Also, Amari Cooper is and will remain a Cowboy.
- Other overvalued QBs getting drafted inside of the first eight rounds: Aaron Rodgers (ADP 62.4, VOA+ 102), Carson Wentz (80.6, 103).
- Other undervalued QBs getting drafted outside of the eight rounds: Matt Ryan (ADP 99.8, VOA+ 104), Tom Brady (137.3, 98), Jimmy Garoppolo (104.2, 94).
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