X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Trevor Story Rankings Debate - Comparing RotoBaller's Rankers

For the RotoBaller baseball crew, it's our favorite time of the entire year. It's time to revive our signature series of articles debating the overall ranking of some of the most fantasy-relevant players of the 2019 baseball season. That's right, it's Ranker vs Ranker time!

RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.

Today, we discuss young Rockies phenom Trevor Story. Nick Mariano unabashedly professes his love for Story as an elite talent, while Pierre Camus doesn't see him as a sure thing in the first round. Which side of the fence do you fall on? Let's hear from both sides to find out who is more convincing.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2019 Draft Rankings Debate - Trevor Story

Overall Rank Overall Tier Player Pos. Nick Pierre JB Chris Pos. Rank Pos. Tier
15 2 Trevor Story SS 6 21 8 19 5 1

 

Nick Mariano's Ranking: #6 overall

I understand the hesitation to trust Trevor Story, every hero has those who doubt them, but he’s a power-speed stud in the most offensive-friendly ballpark in sports. Story finished 2018 with his first All-Star selection that totaled 37 homers and 27 steals, giving him the second-most HR+SB value (64) in the MLB. Only Jose Ramirez had more (73!), with both players being strong first-round picks to me.

(Cards on the table here, I am a huge Story fan. I was RotoBaller’s news writer back before the 2016 season and wrote him up as an exciting prospect to gamble on. Now I have several autographs and t-shirts of his and my fiancee questions my ranking her No. 1. I do, sweetie, I swear.)

Story’s 88 homers in 399 career MLB games over three seasons are backed by a career 43.2% hard-hit rate that isn’t carried by any one year -- all three years are over 40% per Fangraphs. Statcast gives him an average HR distance of 421 feet for ‘18, the most by any hitter with 10+ HRs, which was helped along by this mammoth 505-foot shot -- the longest HR of ‘18.

That said, his pop has usually come with heavy whiffs and a low floor. However, 2018 saw his power creep forward while cutting his K’s down by nearly 10 percentage points (34.4% to 25.6%). Per Statcast, his overall whiff rates on offspeed pitches fell from 47.2% in ‘17 to 29.8% in ‘18, while the breaking ball whiff rate was shaved from 41.7% to 36.1%. Fastball whiffs were shaved down to 18% from 24.3% alongside a rise in “Meatball” swing rate from 74.4% to 81.2% and an eight-percentage-point jump in zone-contact rate. He looked comfortable at the plate and finally starting punishing mistakes as a superstar would.

Maybe you’re skeptical of the 27 steals? After all, he’d swiped just 15 bags across his first two seasons and manager Bud Black doesn’t love the green light. Digging into his Minor League stats, Story had 22-23 steals in 2013, ‘14 and ‘15 before hitting the bigs. A more reliable data point to lean into is his 29.6 ft/sec sprint speed, which ties him with Ronald Acuna for 10th-fastest in the MLB (out of players with 50 opportunities). Speed is one part of the equation, but Story has also proven wise in picking his spots. He’s 42-of-55 on steal attempts in the Majors after going an incredible 97-of-110 in the Minors, which Bud Black seems to have finally embraced. You should too.

Finally, I’m not expecting another .291 average, but his speed and Coors Field does play into a history of strong BABIPs in the .340-.350 range that dates back to his days of Single-A ball in 2012. You xStats disciples may fear a BA drop, but xStats disciples know that it always underestimates Coors Field and isn’t great at handling extreme environments. Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and Story all had averages ~20-30 points above “expectation” in 2016, 2017 and 2018. That other shoe ain’t dropping on this Rocky Mountain High! This is a budding superstar that’s earned the right to run and built the confidence to rake. Sit back and enjoy Story’s next chapter.

 

Pierre Camus' Ranking: #21 overall

Recency Bias Influence (RBI for short) is a troubling affliction that can strike at any time. Over 90% of fantasy baseball owners have suffered from this debilitating bias at one point in time, although many are in denial. Luckily, there is a cure. Just look back at the back of player's baseball card (they still make those, right?) to see if their recent success is a legitimate pattern or an outlier. For Trevor Story, it's a bit too soon to tell but I'm leaning toward the latter.

In 2018, Story was a fantasy phenom. The power-speed combo is legit and while going 37-27 doesn't sound as sexy as 30-30 or 40-20, it was enough to make him one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy. The fact he's a shortstop rather than an outfielder is even better. Oh yeah, and he plays in the thin air of Colorado, hitting behind Nolan Arenado. So what's not to like? Why not make him a first-round pick?

We know that Expected Stats don't always tell the whole story (pun intended) but they can't be ignored either. Story finished 32 points higher on his wOBA (.384) than xwOBA (.352) and 63 points higher on SLG (.567) than xSLG (.504). Oh yeah, his batting average was 29 points higher than expected too. That makes a triple-crown of overachievement based on what Statcast predicted last year, ranking in the top 40 in all three categories among 313 qualified batters. There are some batters who are able to exceed expectations and maintain high BABIP year-after-year but Story hasn't proven he's that player yet and 2017 showed us the opposite, when he struggled to a .239 average with a 34% strikeout rate. Even his supports will admit his batting average should regress and Steamer projects him to hit .271. Not bad but not elite either.

What about the speed that could separate him from the pack, even if his slugging takes a dip? No way that repeats itself. Sprint speed is a good indicator of physical talent but a look across the leaderboard shows many players that just don't know how to steal. Story does, given his success rate mentioned by Nick, but he needs opportunity. He had it last year, when Colorado was ninth in stolen base attempts at 0.78 per game. That may not hold true again, as they were 24th the year before and Bud Black is not known for his love of thievery on the basepaths. The Rockies historically have never been a team to run much because, frankly, they never needed to.

Another thing to note is that fantastic seasons don't often repeat themselves. There are few truly elite players that can do it year after year like Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. Story may turn out to be that player, but we can't be certain yet. That's why we must trust the players who have either formed a strong track record of consistency and/or flashed a ceiling unlike any other in their position. Even if he comes close to repeating last year's totals, who could possibly match Story for fantasy value? Trout and Betts are no-brainers. Stanton and Judge are each capable of 50+ homers. Yelich and Arenado can match Story's power with far better batting averages. Even at middle infield, the Indians' Ramirez and Lindor have higher upside. Turner's got 20-40 potential, Acuna could go 40-20, and then there's Manny Machado, wherever he winds up. Sprinkle in a few stud pitchers like Sale and Scherzer and I've got 20 players I either like or trust slightly more than Story. For the sake of context, I'm ranking Story just behind Alex Bregman, who has a similar profile in many ways.

Ultimately, I can't say I have anything against Story for any particular reason. He's got tremendous power, speed, and an ideal team context. He shouldn't last any later than the second round in fantasy drafts this year and if he falls to me around the middle of that round, I'd gladly take him. I just happen to like 20 other players a little bit better.

More Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chase Elliott

Was Somewhat Lucky, but Still Had Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Won Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Myriad Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Did What He Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates Targets in Seattle, Records 124 Receiving Yards in Week 1
Puka Nacua

Leads Rams in Targets, Catches, and Receiving Yards in Week 1
Logan O'Hoppe

Exits After Concussion Scare, Status Remains Unclear
Christian McCaffrey

Logs 31 Touches in Season Opener
Travis Etienne Jr.

Dominates Backfield Touches in Jacksonville, Posts Monster Day
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Russell Wilson

Giants Won't Commit to Russell Wilson as Week 2 Starter
Drake London

Day-to-Day with Shoulder Sprain
George Kittle

and Jauan Jennings to Undergo MRIs
Jake Moody

49ers to Evaluate Kicker Position After Jake Moody Struggles
Evan Engram

Questionable to Return Against Titans
Daniel Palencia

to Miss Time With Shoulder Injury
Jauan Jennings

Questionable to Return With Shoulder Injury
Emeka Egbuka

Scores Twice in NFL Debut
Aaron Rodgers

Throws Four Touchdowns in Week 1
Justin Fields

Scores Three Times in Loss
Daniel Jones

Excellent in Colts Debut Sunday
Puka Nacua

Clears Concussion Check, Returns to Game
George Kittle

Scores TD Before Being Ruled Out With Hamstring Injury
Puka Nacua

Taken to Locker Room for Concussion Evaluation
Brock Bowers

Expected to be Fine, No Injury Concerns
Byron Buxton

Exits Early With Knee Contusion
Drake London

Injures Shoulder, Questionable to Return
Trea Turner

Suffers Hamstring Strain
Brock Bowers

Questionable to Return in Week 1
Jonathan Taylor

Exits Game With Apparent Injury
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Ty Gibbs

Toyota Speed May Help Ty Gibbs at Gateway
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best DFS Place-Differential Option
Chris Buescher

May Have Qualified Too Well to Start for DFS
Kyle Busch

If Kyle Busch Contends Anywhere, it Could be at Gateway
NASCAR

John Hunter Nemechek Could Benefit From Toyota Speed Like he Did at Darlington
Bubba Chandler

to Make First Start on Sunday
Samuel Basallo

Exits Early with Hand Injury
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Leaves Early on Saturday After Fouling Ball Off his Knee
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Carey Price

Canadiens Trade Carey Price to Sharks
Bobby Witt Jr.

Dealing With Back Spasms
Bobby Witt Jr.

Exits Early on Friday
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Placed on Injured List With Quad Strain
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched on Friday With Back Tightness
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Second at Omega European Masters
Tyrrell Hatton

Finishes Tied for 32nd at LIV Indianapolis
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Fifth at Omega European Masters
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied For Second in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Xander Schauffele

Finishes 42nd in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched From Friday's Start for Undisclosed Reasons
Shohei Ohtani

Returning to the Mound on Friday
Kyle Finnegan

Lands on Injured List With Adductor Strain
Aaron Judge

Returns to Right Field on Friday
Willson Contreras

' Suspension Reduced, to Start Serving it on Friday
Kodai Senga

Mets Send Kodai Senga to Triple-A to Get Right
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card
Axel Sola

Alex Sola Set To Make His UFC Debut
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Expected to Return on Friday
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits With Knee Contusions
Will Smith

Unlikely to Play This Weekend
Shohei Ohtani

to Pitch on Monday
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP