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Jacksonville Jaguars rookie running back Travis Etienne will miss the 2021 NFL season due to injury. Adam Koffler evaluates the Jags backfield to determine the value of RB James Robinson and Carlos Hyde.
Jaguars' first-round rookie RB Travis Etienne suffered a serious mid-foot Lisfranc injury during the teams’ preseason Week 2 game vs. the Saints. In a subsequent move, Jacksonville has placed Etienne on injured reserve, officially ending his 2021 season. Although Etienne has yet to take a snap in a regular season game for the Jaguars, his absence will have a ripple effect on the offense Urban Meyer will use.
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Etienne’s Role in College
Etienne began his collegiate career back in 2018 with the Clemson Tigers. He started at the same time as Jaguars new rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. They spent three years together in the Tiger backfield, building not only chemistry but a solid relationship.
In his rookie season, Etienne was very much utilized solely as a runner, rushing 204 times for 1,658 yards and 24 touchdowns. He only saw 1.2 targets per game that season. As a Sophomore, Etienne had a similar workload on the ground but was given a bit more responsibility as a pass-catcher, seeing 2.9 targets per game. In 2020, Etienne was utilized as an every-down back, rushing 14 times per game and seeing five targets per game.
Life Without Etienne in the Jacksonville Backfield
Before the injury, Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer had a plan to utilize Etienne as the team’s “third-down” back, operating as a safety blanket and pass-protector for Lawrence. Projections for his usage varied, but the one thing that was clear was he’d lead the backfield in targets just based on his ability as a pass-catcher in college.
All that has changed of course. It’s now up to James Robinson and Carlos Hyde to handle all three downs. They could occasionally be spelled by Dare Ogunbowale on third downs, but don’t expect much production from any other running back not named Robinson or Hyde.
Robinson is coming off a historic rookie season in which he set the NFL record for yards from scrimmage by an undrafted free agent with 1,414. He averaged 17.1 carries and 4.3 targets per game and according to PlayerProfiler, had the third-highest opportunity share amongst running backs at 85.2%. Robinson had impressed in training camp enough for the Jaguars to cut ties with star running back Leonard Fournette and Ryquell Armstead was dealing with COVID-19 complications. This led to his incredible ascension, helping those lucky fantasy managers who caught and rode the wave early in the season.
But Meyer specifically brought in veteran running back Carlos Hyde to work in tandem with Robinson. Meyer coached Hyde at Ohio State in 2012 and 2013, so they have a history together. Besides a flukey 2017 season with the 49ers when he saw 88 targets, Hyde has never been much of a pass-catcher in the NFL. In fact, he's never averaged more than 2.5 targets per game outside of that season. That's not to say Meyer won't use him as a pass-catcher, but Robinson is the guy that figures to pick up more of those targets that were going to go to Etienne.
Fantasy Impact
James Robinson has undoubtedly earned the starting job in the Jaguars' backfield, but there's no doubt he'll be sharing responsibilities with Carlos Hyde. Instead of getting 17.1 carries per game, maybe he gets 13-15 carries per game and Hyde gets 6-8 rushes. But Robinson could very well be more efficient with those 13-15 carries being in an improved offense led by Trevor Lawrence.
Robinson figures to see most of the targets from Lawrence, but we shouldn't expect 4.3 per game like in his rookie season. That target volume was a result of Robinson's opportunity share mentioned earlier, which is almost guaranteed to fall with Hyde in the fold.
Robinson finished the 2020 season as the RB7 in half-PPR on a points per game basis. While that's not likely to repeat itself, he should have enough of a workload to finish within the top-15 running backs in 2021. He's right in that D'Andre Swift / J.K. Dobbins tier around RB15.
Hyde is the backup to roster in Jacksonville. Should Robinson go down with an injury, his familiarity in Meyer's system should net him a sizable workload. Consider him amongst guys like Alexander Mattison and Damien Williams around RB50 -- guys that would benefit greatly from an injury to their teams' starting running back.
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