RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, March 7th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/7/22
We have a five-game slate tonight. We have three games starting at 7:00 pm Eastern Time, one at 7:30 pm Eastern Time, and one at 9:30 pm Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
EDIT: 6:30 pm Eastern 3/7/2022: Swayman, Bobrovsky, and Sorokin are not expected to start. I prefer Ullmark as a cash game play on DraftKings, both Ullmark and Markstrom are close on FanDuel.
Jeremy Swayman- DK $7.9K|| FD $8.1K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
This slate does not provide a lot of great options at Goalie. Bobrovsky is the goalie that is most likely to get a win, but with Buffalo 20th in shots per game, how many save opportunities does he get as the most expensive goalie on the slate? Kuemper also has a strong chance of getting a win but the Islanders are 27th in shots per game. So who can we turn to in hopes of getting a win and racking up a lot of saves? Jeremy Swayman.
Swayman is 15-7-3 on the year with a .927 SV%, three shutouts, and averages 15.0 DraftKings points per game and 20.15 FanDuel points per game. The Kings are No. 3 in shots per game (35.12 shots per game), so there is opportunity to get a lot of saves. Boston is favored in the game, so you get a chance at getting a win, possibly leading all goalies in saves on the night as well unlike some of the other plays like Bobrovsky and Kuemper.
On a slate where I do not feel confident in most of the options, I will look for savings here and go with a solid goalie, at home, on a favored team, likely to face a lot of shots and get many saves.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Bobrovsky (DK $8.3K || FD $8.6K), Markstrom (DK $7.8K || FD $7.9K), Sorokin (DK $7.4K || FD $7.7K - GPP only)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Auston Matthews DK $9.2K || FD $9.9K
Opponent - Columbus Bluejackets
On DraftKings, Matthews is the most expensive Center on the slate, while he is the third most expensive on FanDuel. Matthews is a shot-taking machine, averaging 4.46 shots on goal per game. They are likely to face Elvis Merzlikins, quite possibly the worst goalie on the slate. The last time Toronto faced Columbus was just over a week ago. Matthews had one goal, two assists, and 11 shots on goal. I'm not expecting a repeat performance but every time Matthews steps on the ice, he is the most likely to lead all skaters in shots on goal and goals scored. He also has a floor of basically zero, as most forwards do. There are several value options I also like on this slate, but if looking to spend up at forward, this is the spot to do it.
Elias Lindholm - DK $6.0K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Elias Lindholm has scored 57 points in 52 games, with 27 goals and 30 assists. He also averages 2.8 shots on goal per game. Edmonton is real shaky at goalie. It is looking like Mikko Koskinen. Koskinen averages 3.05 goals allowed per game and has a SV% of just .904. He will have some good games, but he will also have some horrid ones too. I like Lindholm as a value as someone who has a good chance of scoring a point. A goal would get him close to value and an assist with a few shots on goal would get him there too.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $9.0K || FD $9.4K), McDavid (DK $8.8K || FD $10.2K - better DK play), Bennett (DK $6.4K || FD $6.8K), Tavares (DK $5.7K|| FD$7.0K), Lundell (DK $4.1K || FD $5.7K), Pageau (DK $3.2K|| FD $4.4K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Jonathan Huberdeau - DK $6.8K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Huberdeau has been playing some good hockey recently. He is on the second line and the first power play, has 18 goals and 58 assists in 55 games played. He had a 10 game point streak going that was broken on Thursday, March 3rd, but he did score an assist on Saturday, March 5th against Detroit so it's time to start a new streak. Because he gets more assists than goals, I prefer to at least pair him with one of his linemates (Sam Bennett or Anthony Duclair), if we aren't doing a full line stack or power play stack.
David Pastrnak- DK $6.4K|| FD $8.8K
Opponent -Los Angeles Kings
David Pastrnak is a great value on the slate, especially on DraftKings. He has 57 points in 56 games, including 31 goals and 26 assists. He averages 4.4 shots on goal per game, always giving him a chance to get the five-shot on goal bonus on DraftKings. To their credit, the Kings allow the fewest shots on goal in the league. The last time Pastrnak played the Kings on February 28th, he had three shots on goal and two assists, making value at his current price point.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $7.5K || FD $8.6K), Marchand (DK $6.1K || FD $8.9K), Gaudreau (DK $5.7K || FD $8.4K), M. Tkachuk (DK $5.2K || FD $8.2K), Toffoli (DK $3.8K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Aaron Ekblad - DK $7.0K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
There is a pretty wild price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel. Based on price and matchup, I would imagine he is uber chalk on FanDuel and while he will have some popularity on DraftKings, it will be more with those looking to stack Florida's Power Play. Ekblad has 49 points in 54 games with 14 goals and 35 assists. He also averages 3.07 shots on goal per game and 1.19 blocked shots per game. Buffalo has the No. 24 penalty kill in the league, having exposure to Florida's Power Play would be good to have on this slate and Ekblad is one way to get there if you aren't able to at other spots. In tournaments, he goes with your Power Play stack no question about it.
Morgan Rielly - DK $5.6K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - Columbus Bluejackets
Morgan Rielly is on the first power play. He has 45 points in 55 games with six goals and 39 assists. He averages 2.67 shots on goal per game along with 1.04 blocked shots per game. Rielly is a way to get Toronto Power Play exposure at a value. I'd prefer to pair him with a Matthews or Marner rather than have him as a standalone play, but if he scores 11-12 fantasy points, he will reach value on the slate. He averages 13.13 FanDuel points per game and 10.4 DraftKings points per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Werenski (DK $6.2K || FD $6.6K), Nurse (DK $6.0K || FD $6.2K), Dobson (DK $5.7K || FD $6.3K), Weegar (DK $5.0K || FD $5.6K), Dahlin (DK $4.9K || FD $6.1K), Tanev (DK $3.3K || FD $4.6K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
EDIT 6:30 pm Eastern Time 3/7/2022: With Spencer Knight starting instead of Bobrovsky, Buffalo 1 is a sneaky stack that I now like. Varlamov starting for the Islanders is a boost to Colorado.
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Toronto (4.3 implied goals), Florida (4.1 implied goals), and Calgary (3.9 implied goals) have the highest implied totals on the slate. From there, there is a bunch of teams: Colorado (3.7 implied goals) and Boston (3.6 implied goals) are just in the next tier.
My strategy in a single entry format would be to grab the team of the five that I think will have the lowest ownership and hope that they have a ceiling game. My feeling is Toronto and Florida will be the most popular main stacks with Calgary 2 being a popular filler stack. Colorado, which is almost as expensive as Toronto but has a lower implied total could be overlooked. Boston is also pretty affordable as well. Even if I do not specifically list below, any of the top two lines of Toronto, Florida, Calgary, Colorado, and Boston can be considered if you like them.
With that said, here are a few stacks I am interested in at the time of this writing:
Toronto PP1: Matthews - Marner - Tavares-Nylander-Rielly. I am talking about playing the whole thing. On a smaller slate, I want to get different with popular teams and while some of the individual parts will be very popular, I am not certain if the entire five-man power play will be that popular. While Columbus' penalty kill is No. 14 (80%), they give up the most shots on goal per game (35.80). The power play gives you exposure to the top two lines, and hopefully, all of the scoring Toronto will do. You will have to find some punts that come through and it's a risky strategy for sure.
Colorado 1/PP1: I am only interested in this stack if Colorado is not chalky. I do worry about this spot a little bit for them. They are traveling to the East Coast from home, the Islanders are close to league average in shots allowed per game, and their penalty kill (82.7%) is No. 9 in the league. This is why I did not write up Colorado above. If other DFS players are of the same mindset as I am, and Colorado is coming in under 10%, even under 5%, I would consider rostering them just out of principle that this is one of the best offenses in the league coming in as contrarian. If Colorado ends up 20%+, then it's a bad play.
Calgary 1: Gaudreau - Lindholm- Tkachuk. This will be somewhat popular, but I predict their second line comes in as a popular filler stack. For reference, Calgary 2 has scored 18 goals as a forward combination this year, which is tied with Colorado's Line 1 of Landeskog - MacKinnon-Rantanen. This Calgary 1 forward combination is No. 1 in the NHL with 51 goals scored. Edmonton is No. 14 in shots allowed per game (31.80). Edmonton does have the No. 27 penalty kill (75.7%) and this line is fully correlated to the power play. Hope that most jump on Calgary 2 as a filler and you can get some Calgary 1 with some leverage on the field.
Florida PP1: I expect Florida 2 to be popular; a Power Play stack might be a way to get different as it consists of two from Florida 2, one from Florida 1, and one from Florida 3. Buffalo's penalty kill is No. 24, they give up the third-most shots in the league (34.23 per game).
Florida 3: This is a sneaky filler stack to look at, especially if playing in a large field GPP. Marchment-Lundell-Reinhart is the forward combination with the most goals scored on Florida (17). They have scored more than Huberdeau-Bennett-Duclair. The issue now is that Marchment is skating on the Top Line with Vatrano is now on the third line. I still think they are worth the dice roll; if they do score a goal and it allows for you to pay up to a main stack that has a ceiling game, you can win a tournament. This line also has a low floor, they could score collectively a few fantasy points and sink you.
