Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 7: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 7 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

Guess what time it is? It's time to make some NFL wagers! Week 7 of the NFL season is here and I'm back with more NFL bets. Counting props, it was my best week since Week 1 and perhaps a sign that we are turning the tide this season!

Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week seven of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week: 3-2
• Season ATS: 9-13
• Season O/U: 5-10
• Season Overall: 13-22

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads

SEA +6 (-110 DK)

As tempting as it is to ride the ATS champs as dogs (Atlanta is 6-0, and the Giants are 5-1), I am iffy on those spots this week at their current numbers. I do like the Seahawks quite a bit here, though.

They had been winning with just offense at first, but last week their defense held Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to just 9 points in an ugly 19-9 win. It sounds strange to say I was glad to see them win ugly, but it proved to me that their success is perhaps less fluky than it may have seemed.

The Chargers are a hard team to figure out, but they seem to let down more often than come through and I never trust them to cover. They were totally unimpressive against Denver last week and while they should definitely score some points here, I think Seattle can keep up with them and keep it close.

TEN -2.5 (-115 DK)

The Titans are just 2.5-point favorites at home, despite having already beaten this Indy team by a touchdown on the road. I was on Tennessee back then and I am not changing my position. This Colts team is a bit of a mess and we don’t know if Taylor, Hines, or Jackson will play this week. I think Tennessee is just a really bad matchup for Indy and if they can get ahead early (as they did in the first game, they led 24-10 at half), they can ride Derrick Henry to a win.

DAL -7 (-105)

It’s looking like Dak will be back for Dallas and this sets up as a perfect bounce-back spot for the Cowboys. Detroit’s defense simply can’t stop the run, so Dallas can feed Pollard and Zeke and allow Dak to ease back into things. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense can put a ton of pressure on Jared Goff and this Detroit offense that came crashing back to earth two weeks ago when they were shut out by the Pats. I think the Cowboys cover a TD at home and cruise to a big win here.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

CLE-BAL over 45.5 (-110 DK)

This game is trying to break my model. The Browns’ defense just continues to get mauled and give up big plays. They allowed over 30 points to a very vanilla New England team last week, and I am not sure how they expect to stop Lamar Jackson and company, who specialize in…big plays.

But the Browns should be able to put up some points here, too. Baltimore is just 16th in overall DVOA defense and 24th against the run, meaning Chubb and Hunt should have some lanes to run through. I like this one to get high scoring and we are with the public on this one (if that matters to you) as almost 70% of the bets are coming in on the over.

New England TEAM TOTAL over 24.5 points (+100 DK)

Without another game total I really like, I am opting to just target one team I really like here and it’s the Pats. They are coming off an excellent performance against the Browns and get another soft match-up on Monday night against a Bears team that ranks 24th in rushing defense (DVOA). Their defense is starting to turn it around, too, and we know Justin Fields is a bit turnover prone, which could mean some short fields and scoring opportunities for the Pats’ offense.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. And this week there aren’t that many heavy favorites, so my main ML parlay is smaller and my teaser is focused mainly on underdogs.

ML FAVORITES PARLAY: Las Vegas/New England/Dallas (+126 DK)

7 POINT UNDERDGOG TEASER: NYG/SEA/NYJ/ATL (+200 DK)

That takes the spreads to NYG +10, SEA +13, NYJ +8, and ATL 13.5

I love that we have a full TD cushion for the Jets and TD+FG cushion for the other three!

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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