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"Breakout" is a common term in the fantasy community during the draft season to describe young players who have the potential to succeed in the upcoming season and produce well above their average draft position.
These players are usually relatively young and have just begun to scratch the surface of their professional careers. They also have a relatively high prospect pedigree, further raising their potential ceiling.
The most important note about a "breakout" is that this is the year to draft them at a discount. If these players live up to their potential, they can very well be drafted at the top of their respective positions next season. This is the year to roll the dice on these National League infielders, as they can be the difference in your NL-only and deeper leagues as this format is incredibly deep as it is.
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Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres
Slotted to be the everyday catcher in Petco Park, Campusano finally got a genuine opportunity in the majors last season after seeing brief stints in 2021 and 2022. He only tallied 22 plate appearances in the first half but saw 152 in the second half. After the All-Star break, the 25-year-old posted a .331 AVG, .375 OBP, and .500 SLG with six long balls.
Luis Campusano since being recalled on July 19th:
.311/.360/.462 with a 130 wRC+ and just cranked his 5th home run🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/ONDmBiqVM0
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) September 14, 2023
Even more impressive, the young backstop has impressive underlying metrics in his relatively small sample size, suggesting he could have a big 2024.
He posted a .305 xBA, 38.5% sweet spot rate, 18.1% whiff rate, and a stellar 12.1% K% rate. The one negative aspect of his game that was prevalent last season was his very low 4.0% walk rate, which would only negatively affect his value in OBP leagues and points leagues. However, his low K rate does help to offset this walk rate. ATC projects the backstop to post a .262 AVG, .315 OBP, and .411 SLG in his first full season behind the dish.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
The 24-year-old made his major league debut in July of last season and stayed on the Cincy roster for the remainder of the season. He posted a .270 AVG, .328 OBP, and .477 SLG. Encarnacion-Strand is a popular pick to serve as a corner infielder in most leagues but would serve as your primary first baseman in deeper formats.
The Oklahoma State graduate hit 13 home runs with 37 RBI and two swiped bags. His underlying numbers back up his power output, which makes him a great target to exceed his current ADP.
Encarnacion-Strand registered an eye-catching 48.4% hard-hit rate, which would have qualified him in the top half of all hitters if he had enough at-bats. In addition, he also maintained an above-average barrel percentage and average exit velocity throughout his debut campaign.
Make that three games in a row with a home run for Christian Encarnacion-Strand. ☄️ pic.twitter.com/YKZyZChJEo
— MLB (@MLB) September 26, 2023
His power should continue to play well in Great American Ball Park, which is a hitter’s paradise. The 80-game suspension of Noelvi Marte opens more playing time for Encarnacion-Strand in a fairly crowded Reds infield with the likes of Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, Jeimer Candelario, and Elly De La Cruz. In addition, a recent injury to infielder Matt McLain has opened another potential lineup spot for Encarnacion-Strand to fill.
If Encarnacion-Strand can avoid a sophomore slump, he should be a lock in the lineup every day and the recent news provides the first baseman with a little more leeway he might not have gotten before. ATC supports believing in his raw power, as he is projected to tally 26 round-trippers with 80 RBI.
Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
Rounding out this list is another San Diego Padre, Jackson Merrill. The No. 12 prospect on MLB Pipeline and No. 2 prospect in the San Diego system was recently named to the Opening Day roster.
Merrill, who came up as a shortstop, is slated to play center field for the brown and gold to begin the campaign, making him a valuable asset as he will gain that coveted outfield eligibility. This makes him increasingly valuable not only in NL-only formats but also in five-outfielder leagues.
Given his positional flexibility, Merrill is likely to be an everyday starter in San Diego in the foreseeable future. The 20-year-old spent most of 2022 in Double-A, posting a .273 AVG, .338 OBP, and .444 SLG.
You just watch Jackson Merrill and see a Big Leaguer.
Beautiful swing. pic.twitter.com/85KmrrOQMo
— Devine Sports Gospel (@DevineGospel) March 17, 2024
Even though he will not blow you away from a power perspective, his bat-to-ball skills are quite prevalent, which makes him a great target on draft day. The left-handed bat posted an identical .273 AVG against both right- and left-handed pitchers and struck out only 25 times across 211 plate appearances.
ATC projects Merrill to maintain his strong contact skills with a .254 AVG and a small 16.1% K% rate, the lowest projected total on the team. These players are well worth the investment in NL-only and other deeper formats due to their prospect pedigree and placement on their current depth chart. Reach for these players in these competitive formats as they have the opportunity to exceed their overall ADP significantly and lead your team to a fantasy championship.
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