RADIO
Power Drought Coming?
Each MLB season, the power numbers of certain hitters decrease. As fantasy players, we wish we could have seen it coming. In 2014, big names like Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, and Robinson Cano saw large dips in their home run numbers, each falling by more than 10 round trippers. Role players like J.J. Hardy and Nick Swisher saw even bigger declines of 16 and 14 respectively.
Hopefully this season we can prepare for those drop offs.There is reason to believe that the following players will see a home run decline in the 2015 season. Beware of these batters.
Brian Dozier (2B, MIN)
Brian Dozier had a decent 2014 season where he set career highs in many offensive categories including OBP, SLG, and HR. He finished the season with 23 HR, but I do not expect him to reach that mark in 2015.
Last season Dozier recorded seven out of his 23 total home runs in his first 93 at bats of the year. This seems to be an aberration, as he slowed down mightily, hitting only 16 home runs in his final 505 at bats. To put the difference in perspective, Dozier hit one home run per 13.2 at bats during his first 7 home runs, but only one home run per 31.5 at bats for the rest of the season.
Dozier comes in at 156th out of all hitters in average fly ball distance. This is the third lowest mark among the top 20 American League home run leaders from last season. It does not appear that he is consistently hitting deep fly balls, and the large home run decline for the final three quarters of last season is further proof.
I would expect that this trend will remain intact as pitchers continue to successfully adjust to Dozier’s hot start to 2014.
Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)
Albert Pujols made up for a lackluster 17 home runs in 2013 with 28 in 2014. Even with this increase, he saw a dip from 42% to 35.4% in fly ball percentage from one year to the next. The 35.4% is the lowest fly ball percentage that Pujols has had since 2002. In addition, his 45.7% ground ball rate in 2014 was the highest of his career.
His 273.97 feet per fly ball average is by far his lowest record distance. Prior to 2014, Pujols had never averaged below 281 feet per fly ball.
These drop offs are significant enough to believe that Pujols won’t be able to regain his old form as a 30 or more home run guy. While he can still be a valuable fantasy player, I would expect to see his home run numbers take a dip in 2015.
Jimmy Rollins (SS, LAD)
Jimmy Rollins had a surprising season in 2014 in which he hit 17 home runs. His increasing age and overall wear and tear will not help his home run total, but there is even more to take into consideration. Looking back at his 2014 numbers, the 36-year-old caught fire and hit seven home runs in the month of July. He didn't hit more than three home runs in any other month of the season.
In 2014, Rollins was 170th in terms of fly ball distance. This pedestrian ranking is the highest he has been on that list since 2007. His role on his new team will ensure that he stays low on that list.
Rollins will most likely be leading off for the much more potent Dodgers lineup and will be looked upon to be a table setter rather than a power hitter. The Dodgers are a contending team with countless power hitters behind Rollins. Rollins has always fit in nicely with his role on a team, and will be inclined to get on base any way that he can in 2015.
