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Scott Engel and Inside Injuries look into recent MLB player injuries and analyze their fantasy baseball implications including Yoan Moncada, Caleb Smith amd more.
In our weekly feature in collaboration with Inside Injuries, we take a comprehensive look into major injuries and their Fantasy implications.
The medical team at Inside Injuries breaks down each player’s outlook from physical perspectives. RotoBaller then provides in-depth fantasy recommendations based on the impact of every injury breakdown. It’s an unrivaled combination of medical and fantasy expertise, designed to help you gain a true advantage in your roster management.
Inside Injuries predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling.
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Yoan Moncada (2B/3B, CHW)
Moncada made an early exit from Monday’s game due to tightness in his upper back. He wasn’t in the lineup Tuesday, but for now won’t land on the I.L. The team is considering him day-to-day, but his injury was changed from tightness to a mid-back strain, which is more concerning. Back tightness can subside in a few days with rest and treatment. A mild strain needs two weeks to fully heal.
Moncada now comes with an Elevated Injury Risk (22%) because back injuries often recur. We still don’t believe this one is overly serious, but it could lead to Moncada missing more than a few days. The good news is that his HPF (Health Performance Factor - our metric to predict player performance based on injuries) is Above Average (77%), so he should play pretty well when he is back in the lineup.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
If you play in weekly leagues, you won’t be able to replace Moncada until next week, so you can only hope he returns before Monday, but this report doesn’t make that look like a good possibility. His status is obviously unclear and it would be a significant loss to be without him for more than a few days. Start making preparations for any potential extended absence now if possible on the waiver wire. Yuli Gurriel is 54 percent owned in Yahoo leagues and may be available, and Colin Moran is just nine percent owned.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY)
Stanton has had a rough start to the season, first suffering a left biceps strain, then injuring his left shoulder and he is now dealing with a calf injury. He has played just three games this year but was finally cleared for a rehab assignment. Three injuries within two months is clearly a warning sign that he needs to be closely monitored for the remainder of the season. Stanton did just hit his Optimal Recovery Time for all three injuries and is on track to return soon.
It’s no surprise that his Injury Risk remains High (24%) - there are too many issues to monitor going forward, and it wouldn’t take much to suffer a new compensatory injury as he tries to avoid aggravating an existing problem. Stanton is trending in the right direction, though. His HPF just improved from Below Average to Above Average (76%), and he went 2-4 with a home run in his first rehab game on Tuesday. Stanton could be back in the Yankees lineup sometime next week.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
This report is only partially reassuring. You may finally get Stanton back soon, but he could go down again at any time when he returns. Don’t count on him to bolster your stretch run, take what you get from him as a bonus. You have already likely compensated for his extended absence, so keep those quality replacement options available in case you need them again at any time when Stanton finally returns.
Caleb Smith (SP, MIA)
The Marlins placed Caleb Smith on the I.L. on Friday with left hip inflammation, something he may have been trying to fight through over his last few starts, as he hasn’t looked very sharp. He was initially expected to return soon after the minimum 10 days, but five days have passed and therapy remains his focus. That means that this is likely something more serious as he hasn’t resumed throwing yet. There doesn’t seem to be any structural damage, but this won’t get better in a week.
Right now our algorithm is considering this a grade 1 injury, and for Smith it comes with a two week Optimal Recovery Time. His Injury Risk is very High (36%) because hip injuries can quickly become a lingering problem, especially for pitchers. The other issue with hip injuries is that they often lead to other injuries if a player returns before it is 100% healed. Overcompensating could cause anything from a back strain to a lower body muscular strain.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
Smith had allowed four or more earned runs in two of three starts before landing on the Injured List. From a positive perspective, the struggles appear to be injury related, so you can be optimistic about him regaining his better form when he returns. The Marlins have no reason to rush him back too soon, as they are obviously not anywhere near playoff contention. His firm timetable for a return is unknown, so you will have to patch things together on your Fantasy pitching staff until Smith returns.
J.D. Martinez (OF, BOS)
Back spasms forced Martinez to miss four consecutive games last week. He returned to the Red Sox lineup on Monday. That’s great news, but here’s the problem. This is the fourth back problem we have counted over the last three seasons. This is clearly a recurring issue for Martinez, even if it isn’t overly serious. We have said time and time again how troubling injuries can be as they typically recur. If he ends up missing time again this season with a back problem, don’t be surprised if the Red Sox send him for additional tests. There’s often an underlying cause of recurring back spasms such as disc herniation or nerve impingement.
Martinez entered the season a High Injury Risk and will likely continue that way for the remainder of the season. He has had so many injury problems over the years and was one of the players we warned about ahead of the season. When healthy he’s one of the best hitters in the game, but the injuries could come back to bite him later in the year.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
If Martinez settles into a really nice groove over the next week or so, and other owners start to forget about his recent time missed, you should start shopping him. When he is going well, it will be the optimal time to trade Martinez and get something very significant in return. Move him while he is displaying his better form and you may dodge bad luck if he goes down again in the near future.
Corey Kluber (SP, CLE)
Kluber suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right ulna when he was struck by a line drive on May 1. We said early on that his injury would come with a 15-week Optimal Recovery Time, meaning he could be ready to return sometime in August if everything goes well. That timeline hasn’t changed according to our algorithm. Kluber had his cast removed after x-rays showed that the fracture was healing. He is cleared to do cardio work that includes sprinting and pedaling on the stationary bike. For now, Kluber must still wear a splint on his arm and isn’t going to be cleared to pick up a baseball for a while.
Another follow-up will be coming soon, at which point there could be a clearer timeline for when Kluber will be cleared to throw. When that does happen he will still need at least a month to build up his arm strength and then go on a rehab assignment. Expect him to pitch again this season, but it’s going to be awhile.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
If he has no setbacks, Kluber could be back in August as indicated in this report. If your Fantasy team is near the top of the standings and could use an extra pitching push to gain a further advantage on the other top teams later in the year, now may be a time to make a trade move for Kluber, especially if he is on a roster of a team that needs help to climb in the standings. Get what you can for later from someone who needs help now.
George Springer (OF, HOU)
It’s been two and-a-half weeks since Springer landed on the I.L. with a grade 2 hamstring strain. We knew early on that this was more than a mild strain that can heal in a few weeks, so it’s no surprise that he remains sidelined. Our algorithm initially gave him a four-week Optimal Recovery Time, and that hasn’t changed. Springer has been slowly ramping up his baseball activities, progressing to straight-line running and taking batting practice. If he is able to start to sprint and cut and continue to take BP without any issues. He should be ready to begin a rehab assignment within the next week.
It doesn’t take much to aggravate a hamstring strain before it is fully healed, so it’s important to continue to take things very slow. Because of how difficult it is to get back to 100% following this injury, Springer still comes with a High Injury Risk (45%). He is also a player that relies on his speed and quickness, and our algorithm is suggesting that he isn’t close to being able to play well. His HPF is just 26%, which falls into the Poor category. In a few more weeks these numbers should improve significantly, but he needs to prove that he can play in games without getting re-injured.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
You may get Springer back soon, but there is a risk he could start slowly upon his return. Of course, you will just have to bear through that process. You’re obviously going to activate Springer as soon as he comes back. The good news is that he should be back to his best form for the second half of the season when you will truly need him the most.
Domingo German (SP, NYY)
Another man down for the Yankees. Germán landed on the Injured List with a left hip flexor strain this week. He had been playing through some discomfort in his hip over the last few weeks but tried to tough it out. Unfortunately, he likely made it worse and didn’t recover as well as he typically does following his last start. The Yankees sent him for an MRI, revealing the strain. Germán received a cortisone injection on Tuesday and will need to take it easy for the next few weeks.
If this is just a mild strain, his hip should heal in 2-3 weeks. He can continue to throw and keep his arm in shape but won’t be able to do much lower body work and needs to avoid anything that puts stress on the hip. Germán felt the most discomfort when landing on his right leg at the end of his delivery.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
German was 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, so he will not be easy to replace on your Fantasy pitching staff. But you could potentially stream starters for two to three weeks and then you’ll hopefully have German available for the remainder of the season. Outright replacement pickups include Dakota Hudson (27 percent owned), who is performing very well recently, and Mike Fiers (25) who has actually been somewhat underrated this year.
Mitch Haniger (OF, SEA)
Haniger was forced to undergo surgery last Friday after fouling a ball off of himself the day before, causing a ruptured testicle. He’s going to need to lay low for at least a few weeks, but there isn’t a clear timeline to return. Our algorithm has calculated a six week Optimal Recovery Time, so we could see Haniger return sometime after the All-Star break. This is obviously a very painful injury, but once he is healed there shouldn’t be any lingering problems.
Engel’s Fantasy Analysis
Haniger was hitting only .220 but the power and RBI production was certainly there, with 15 home runs and 32 RBI, plus 46 runs scored. That certainly isn’t easy to replace. You can try to plug the hole with the likes of Corey Dickerson, who is back from the I.L. and is just 25 percent owned or Randal Grichuk (24), who has a similar power and RBI profile to Haniger.
