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The Denver Broncos named Teddy Bridgewater starting quarterback for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. Matt MacKay breaks down the fantasy football implications to determine which receivers benefit most.
Denver was the site of one of the more unique quarterback training camp battles this offseason. Incumbent quarterback Drew Lock looked promising in a small sample size during his rookie season in 2019, where he went 4-1 as the Broncos starter. Lock tossed seven touchdowns and over 1,000 yards in those five starts and earned the starting job for 2020. Unfortunately for both Lock and the Broncos, he could not transfer his rookie year momentum into 2020, going 4-9 as a starter and ranking 31st in true passer rating (70.1), which excludes unpressured throwaways and drops.
Despite rostering several elite players on either side of the line of scrimmage, Denver was unable to succeed with Lock under center. The next option? Sign Teddy Bridgewater to a one-year, $11.5 million deal to compete with Lock. After two weeks of the preseason and both quarterbacks having up and down moments, head coach Vic Fangio has opted to name Bridgewater the starting quarterback on the road against the New York Giants in Week 1.
Love this opening statement from @DrewLock23 after losing the starting job to Teddy Bridgewater. This is the mentally we all should carry in what we do. pic.twitter.com/YTaB6Qi5jj
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Bridging the Gap
Bridgewater was pedestrian with the Carolina Panthers in 2020, going 4-11 due to one of the lowest touchdown rates amongst all quarterbacks at just three percent. He was given an 89.6 percent protection rate, which ranked fifth-best, allowing Bridgewater to finish the season with a 69 percent completion rate. Carolina certainly didn't lack weapons at the wide receiver position. Still, the absence of running back Christian McCaffery for the duration of the season allowed opposing defenders to play away from the line of scrimmage. Mike Davis was a competent running back, but he wasn't McCaffery, so the elite protection rate the offensive line afforded Bridgewater on passing downs is overrated in terms of the offense lacking a true home-run threat in its backfield.
Comparing Bridgewater's true passer rating (91.4) to Lock's (70.1) gives a more precise look at the precision and decision-making between the two quarterbacks in 2020. Bridgewater also had a superior accuracy rating (7.9) compared to Lock (6.7), which could help bridge the gap on offense for Denver in 2021. Bridgewater still offers rushing upside despite the gruesome leg injury that nearly ended his career, scoring five touchdowns as a ball carrier with the Panthers last season. His mobility isn't something to rely on for fantasy purposes. However, it's a useful skill that allows Bridgewater to extend plays with his legs, buying time for a wide receiver or running back to get open on their route. Bridgewater had six games without an interception for the Panthers, but only two of those games resulted in a win. Denver's defensive personnel is stronger than Carolina's, meaning his ability to play smart, turnover-free football could launch them up the AFC West leaderboard in 2021.
Fantasy Impact
Denver's offensive personnel collectively takes a step forward in their potential fantasy production with Bridgewater under center. Starting in the backfield, rookie running back Javonte Williams adds youth and speed while matching the powerful style of veteran running back Melvin Gordon III. Williams is valued as the RB27, climbing over Gordon (RB31) in ADP. Let's not forget that Gordon fell just 14 yards shy of hitting the 1,000-yard mark, averaging 4.6 YPC on 215 carries. Williams could reduce Gordon's carries to 150, but Bridgewater will likely lean on both of them as security blankets out of the backfield, much as he did with Mike Davis, who saw 70 targets in 2020. According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos' offensive line is ranked 21st entering the season, which means quick throws and dump-offs to running backs are more than likely to occur.
The receiving options for Denver benefit the most from Bridgewater's nomination. Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, K.J. Hamler, and Noah Fant will receive more accurate targets, resulting in more opportunities to produce receiving yards after the catch (RAC), arguably the most valuable statistic in fantasy outside of target share percentage. Jeudy finished his rookie season with a 73.2 true catch rate percentage, ranking 88th amongst wideouts in 2020. Jeudy dominated the team's target share (21.2%) compared to Tim Patrick (16%), who filled in for Sutton after suffering a torn ACL in Week 2. 113 targets from Bridgewater will not result in 52 receptions and three touchdowns in 2021. Take advantage of Jeudy's WR30 ADP, as he is valued as a WR3 but possesses legitimate WR1 upside.
Sutton developed great chemistry with Lock at the end of 2019, so it's harder to predict how he'll transition to the safe, shallow targets Bridgewater prefers. However, he averaged 3.8 air yards per attempt with the Panthers, so expect many in-breaking routes that feature slants, comebacks, and flats from Sutton in 2021. Currently, he is valued just ahead of Jeudy as the WR29 in half-PPR formats, meaning many fantasy experts believe the fourth-year wideout is poised for a great year despite returning from a torn ACL. As a result, he's a slight risk at ADP, but I'm comfortable taking him as my WR3 or Flex by the time he and Jeudy are the best available options in the middle of the seventh round of fantasy drafts.
KJ Hamler is the most underrated Broncos wide receiving corps, valued as the WR80 and going undrafted in fantasy leagues. During his rookie season with Lock under center, Hamler totaled 56 targets and averaged 12.7 yards per reception, using his top-end speed to frequently separate from defenders. Hamler is a great sleeper prospect at the end of fantasy drafts, as he averaged 6.8 yards per target as the team's primary slot receiver in three wide receiver sets. Hamler will be a tempting target near the line of scrimmage for Bridgewater to rely on as an alternative to checking down to the backfield and offers explosive home-run ability that elevates him into WR3 discussion.
Tight end Noah Fant is valued as the TE7 in half-PPR formats and is going off draft boards right behind Sutton and Jeudy. The third-year tight end has shown explosive moments and has the potential to be an elite tight end, but health has previously been the primary obstacle limiting Fant from reaching his true fantasy ceiling. In 2020, he averaged 12.7 targets per snap percentage, ranking second-highest behind Jeudy. This resulted in 93 targets, which Fant turned into 62 receptions for 673 yards and three touchdowns. His average depth of target (ADOT) was just 6.7 yards, which Bridgewater will continue to adhere to with his quick release and preference for a target close to the line of scrimmage. If Fant can go from three end zone targets in 2020 to eight or nine end zone targets in 2021, the touchdowns could flow, rewarding fantasy managers with a top-five finish.
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