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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football -Bears vs Packers showdown slate. His Week 14 SNF daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome to Week 14, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on December 12th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Aaron Rodgers ($18,000 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,878 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, four interceptions, three rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 33.6% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 10.9% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
I start off this slate with the "Bad Man" himself, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers made sure to let the fans at Soldier Field know that he owns them back when these two teams met up in October, and it's hard to expect anything different tonight. The Bears seem to have a defensive funnel that favors the opposing offense's pass attack, and I fully expect Rodgers to take full advantage and air it out in what should be an easy win for the Pack.
David Montgomery ($15,000 DK, $12,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 134 attempts, 566 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 24 targets, 20 receptions, 154 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 76.79% snap rate, 62.62% attempt rate, 57.5% red zone attempt rate, 55.56% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 10.04% target rate, 16% red-zone target rate.
- Offense Rush DVOA: -7.1% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -3.7% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
Just as Chicago's defense favors the opposing offense's passing attack, the Packers' defense favors the opposing offense's rushing attack. This is clearly a good thing for the Bears, despite getting Justin Fields back after missing the last two weeks. Montgomery averages just 13.3 attempts per game for 57.3 yards per game but has caught sixteen passes in those four games. He's coming off a hot week where he logged 141 all-purpose yards and a touchdown and looks to keep that momentum rolling in a tough divisional matchup.
Other Captains/MVPs: Davante Adams, Darnell Mooney, Aaron Jones
DFS Flex Plays
Justin Fields ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 1,361 passing yards, four touchdowns, eight interceptions, 311 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: -8.1% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.5% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
As I mentioned with Montgomery, Fields will be playing tonight after missing the last two (and a half) games due to broken ribs. The Bears' passing offense has been adequate at best this season, but thanks to Fields's running ability and relatively low price on both sites, he's a capable option in a FLEX spot. He had his best two games from a fantasy perspective before getting injured, logging 48.4 DraftKings points and 45.44 FanDuel points over the two-game span between weeks 8-9. This game has a real potential of getting out of hand so we could see Fields racking up the rushing yards and possibly even a garbage-time touchdown that would make him an optimal play tonight.
Darnell Mooney ($8,400 DK, $10,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 90 targets, 51 receptions, 721 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 87.06% snap rate, 26.32% target rate, 13.89% red-zone target rate, four end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Chandon Sullivan): 12% target rate per route covered, 71% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered.
We can safely assume that Darnell Mooney has taken over the "WR1" role in Chicago. With a target rate of over 25% this season, Mooney has taken advantage of the opportunities he's been given. He seemed to have a solid connection with Fields as well in Fields' last two full games; catching 9 of 15 targets for 105 yards and touchdown. I'll be treading lighter with Mooney on DraftKings, but he's a must-play on FanDuel for me as his price is just too low.
Other Flex Options: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones
DFS Value Plays
AJ Dillon ($4,400 DK, $11,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 128 attempts, 543 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 29 targets, 27 receptions, 261 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 40.15% snap rate, 40.76% attempt rate, 38.71% red-zone attempt rate, 41.675 attempt rate within the five-yard line, 7.4% target rate, 4.48% red-zone target rate.
- Offense Rush DVOA: -3.4% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -8% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
I'm not going to say that AJ Dillon has taken over as the lead back in Green Bay (he hasn't), but boy has he really stepped it up as Aaron Jones has been dealing with a knee injury. Jones has run the ball just 29 times since Halloween, while Dillon has run the ball 60 times in that same span, including 20 attempts for 69 yards in Week 12 against the Rams. I won't have much of Dillon on FanDuel due to his price, but he's an excellent value play on DraftKings as his price is far too low.
Mason Crosby ($4,200 DK, $9,600 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 27 field goals attempted, 18 field goals made, 31/32 PAT.
I don't really need to go on with my whole spiel about how kickers are optimal. They are, of course, and tonight we'll hope that Mason Crosby keeps the momentum going. This will be Crosby's 30th game against the Bears, and in the first 29, he's 41 for 51 on field goals and 81 for 83 on extra point attempts. While Crosby has struggled a bit on field goals this season, he's been near automatic on extra points. He has a solid XP floor, and he could knock down a couple of short field goals resulting in a kicker once again being optimal.
Other Value Plays: Cairo Santos, Khalil Herbert
Overall Slate Note
Both of these offenses are rather consolidated and I would suggest making your lineups accordingly. Obviously, you'd want to add in mid-range to value guys that I hadn't mentioned like MVS, Allen Lazard, and Marcedes Lewis on the Packers side and Allen Robinson, Damiere Byrd, and Jimmy Graham on the Bears side. However, I'll mostly be sticking with the big boys and filling in where necessary. My only restriction on tonight's slate would be playing just one running back from each team in a lineup, as I can't really see Montgomery/Herbert or Jones/Dillon both getting there. It's more likely with Jones/Dillon, but I think Green Bay plans to air it out all night, so I don't anticipate playing that pairing. Best of luck and I hope you're having/have had a great weekend!
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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