X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Take Out the Trash: Pitchers Who Should Junk Their Worst Pitch

Frankie Montas - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Justin Dunbar highlights starting pitchers who could be in line to break out if they make changes to their pitch mix. Keep an eye on these SP during the spring and draft season.

Just throw the ball over the plate- it's that easy, right? Unfortunately, pitching is much more than that. In fact, it's a science. What are your best pitches? What's the optimal pitch usage for each pitch? How do they play off each other? There are so many variables that can be difficult to pin down. In a lot of ways, this is where some of the disconnects between more analytically-inclined individuals and old-school thinkers occur. The latter side will say that each pitch has a purpose, and needs to be established. The former side, meanwhile, will argue that if it's getting hit hard, what purpose is there to throw it?

For pitchers, making a notable change to their pitch mix can be difficult. You get accustomed to a certain pitch mix, so making changes could lead to an adjustment phase. Take Jesus Luzardo last year as an example. After being traded the Marlins, he increased his breaking ball usage significantly, which led to worse command. However, you wouldn't expect this to be a permanent issue. In fact, after increasing his swinging-strike rate significantly with a better pitch mix, I'd expect strong results from the young lefty.

Long story short, we need to just the process and wait for the results to follow. Kevin Gausman, Gerrit Cole, and Corbin Burnes are among the several pitchers who were able to make a pitch-mix change. In simple terms, they threw their better pitches more, and their worst pitches less. Hey, isn't that the goal all pitchers should strive for? Today, we are going to take a look at pitchers who could improve significantly by ditching their worst pitch. While this doesn't guarantee improved results, it would allow them to focus on their superior pitches, which should in turn lead to them becoming better pitchers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Yusei Kikuchi, Free Agent: Cutter

It is easy to forget now, but do you know that Yusei Kikuchi made the All-Star game last year? After a slow start to the season, he posted a 2.77 ERA, 3.68 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), and 26.8% strikeout in his final 12 starts, earning him a spot in the midsummer classic.

Unfortunately, just because a pitcher makes the All-Star game doesn't mean their overall season was impressive. In the second half, the 30-year-old struggled mightily to the tune of a 5.98 ERA and 13.5% K-BB ratio. In the end, his ERA (4.41) was over four, while all of his numbers took a hit.

So, what was wrong with Kikuchi? Some of it certainly has to do with his fastball velocity. In May, he was averaging 96.1 MPH. Meanwhile, by September, that number was down to 94.3 MPH. Furthermore, with his spin rates declining more than you'd expect even with the drop in velocity, it's clear the crackdown on foreign substance abuse may have affected him negatively. All told, he'll need to make some adjustments to get back on track.

One change Kikuchi could make? Ditching, or severely decreasing the usage of his cutter. When we take a look at the metrics of each of his pitches, his cutter stands out in a negative way:

YUSEI KIKUCHI METRICS BY PITCH MIX

  • Fastball: .362 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) allowed, 30.3% whiff rate
  • Cutter: .426 xwOBA allowed, 19.5% whiff rate
  • Slider: .268 xwOBA allowed, 31.2% whiff rate
  • Changeup: .194 xwOBA allowed, 39.6% whiff rate

Kikcuhi's cutter is effective in inducing ground balls (58.5% GB), but that's about it. Despite all of that, it still allowed an 11.7% barrel rate last season, and the inability to get whiffs on it stands out. Especially since he has a vertical three-pitch mix with his fastball, slider, and changeup, the latter of which induces a lot of ground balls, a case can be made the cutter isn't needed. Interestingly, until the final month of the season, this seemed to be a change he was working towards making:

The decreased cutter usage didn't lead to strong results, but we have to trust the process here. As a free agent, here's hoping Kikuchi can sign with a team that is willing for him to go complete north/south approach with a three-pitch mix, sans the cutter. If so, there's plenty of reason why he can keep his ERA close to four, with more strikeouts as well. Now, we'll just have to wait and see where he ends up.

 

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers: Sinker

When you're the first overall pick, expectations are going to be extremely high for you. When he first step foot at Auburn University, Casey Mize wasn't a heralded prospect- he wasn't even drafted coming out of high school. Yet, that doesn't tell the whole story.

Over his final 198.1 college innings, Mize posted a 34.19% strikeout rate with just a 3.2% walk rate. Simply put, those numbers are absolutely absurd. Thus, it's no surprise the Detroit Tigers made him the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft, hoping that he'd lead the way as the future ace of their pitching staff.

Although he dealt with some injuries, Mize quickly ascended up different levels, spending just one year in the minors before making his MLB debut in 2020. Heading into 2021, there were high expectations for him as MLB Pipeline's #11 overall prospect, and he did post a 3.71 ERA. Yet, this doesn't tell the whole story.

Clearly, Mize's ERA is going to be very hard to replicate. Not only did it come with a subpar 12.3% K-BB ratio, but also a 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. What led to the ERA boost? A .254 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) and a 79.5% left-on-base allowed rate, each of which is going to be hard to sustain. I don't see Mize allowing just a 19.2% line-drive rate allowed, which will lead to more hits allowed, while more damage could be done with men on base.

Thus, for Mize to replicate his success, he'll need to make tweaks to his pitch mix. Honestly, his arsenal is impressive. He's able to miss bats with his fastball (25.3% whiff rate), while his slider and splitter each were highly regarded. Then, there's his sinker, which was hit extremely hard to the tune of a .412 xwOBA allowed and didn't exactly miss bats (13.1% whiff rate).

Sometimes, it's not as easy as just ditching one pitch, but for Mize, it is. There's no reason, after all, that his splitter shouldn't take a step forward next season:

With that in mind, Mize could have a three-pitch mix between his fastball, slider, and splitter that can complement each other. All three of these pitches should miss bats, while the splitter's ability to induce ground balls should help compensate for the lack of a sinker. Honestly, I'd be fine if Mize pulled a Kevin Gausman and leaned on his fastball/splitter combination, which is what led to him being such a heralded prospect.

Considering his prospect pedigree and overall talent, there is room for Mize to grow into the pitcher he was expected to be. It is just going to take some tweaks to get there. Without them, we're likely looking at an ERA in the mid 4.00s at the best. If he does, though, there's a lot of upside here. I wouldn't be necessarily targeting him in redraft leagues or dynasty leagues, as his inflated ERA from last year doesn't make him a buy-low candidate at all, but I would closely monitor how his arsenal looks in spring training. If the sinker is gone, he becomes much, much more intriguing.

 

Frankie Montas, Oakland A's: Sinker (and Slider)

Every year, there are a few pitchers that put it all together and become standout performers. With a 2.63 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 20.3% K-BB ratio, Frankie Montas seemed to be one of those pitchers in 2019. Unfortunately, though, his season was limited to 96 innings pitched after he was suspended for 80-games due to the use of performance-enchancing drugs (PEDs).

After a shaky 2020 season, it was fair to question what Montas would bring to the table in 2021. After all, he hadn't pitched over 100 innings in an MLB season and had been rather inconsistent. The upside with his ability to miss bats was enough to make him a popular mid-round draft pick, but the excitement definitely withered after a poor start to the season.

Over the first three months of the season, Montas struggled to the tune of a 4.72 ERA. His underlying numbers (4.00 SIERA) were mostly fine, yet he was getting hit hard (10.6% barrel rate allowed) and seemed to be underachieving in terms of his strikeout rate (24% K). Clearly, something needed to change.

Fortunately, it did, and in a major way. During the course of the final three months of the season, Montas was absolutely dominant in every way:

  • 16 GS, 99.1 IP, 2.17 ERA, 29.1% K, 8.4% BB, 15.5% Swinging-Strike Rate, 3.59 SIERA

As you can see, Montas missed more bats, leading to more strikeouts, while he was much better when it comes to limiting damage (6.6% barrel rate allowed). So, what unlocked this success? It wasn't a velocity bump, nor was it a major change in command. Instead, as you would expect based on the theme of this article, it has to do with his pitch mix.

Montas' sinker, with a .360 xwOBA allowed and 17% whiff rate, is certainly an inferior pitch to his four-seam fastball (.330 xwOBA, 24.6% whiff). Furthermore, his slider rated below-average for a breaking ball in both whiff rate (31.5%) and xwOBA (.348). On the other hand, his splitter, with an absurd 51.4% whiff rate and .178 xwOBA allowed, is one of the best pitches in baseball.

As you can see, Montas increased the usage of his splitter and relied less on his sinker as the season went on. It's no surprise that between July and August, when his pitch mix was most optimal, he was at his best: 31.5% strikeout rate, 3.31 SIERA, 16.9% swinging-strike rate. It is discouraging that he reverted back to his pre-July norms in September, but the upside was on full display.

We'll see what Montas' pitch usage looks like with a new coaching staff in Oakland, or if he ends up being traded. Either way, it's clear that he needs to lean less on his sinker and slider and enhance the usage of his splitter. If so, we could be looking at a true frontline starter. Oh, Frankie, how you remain the intriguing mystery that keeps on bringing us back in.

 

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies: Changeup

The Rockies have had a difficult time developing pitchers, but Kyle Freeland was supposed to be the exception. Coming out of high school in Colorado, the Rockies made him the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft. After throwing over 200 innings with a 2.85 ERA, many expected him to become the team's future ace.

Even at the time, though, there were reasons to be skeptical of Freeland. The ERA came with a 4.35 SIERA and just a 12.2% K-BB ratio, which are suboptimal numbers. With worse batted-ball luck and less runner left on base, his ERA ballooned to 6.73 in 2019, and he followed that up with a 15.1% strikeout rate in 2020.

Add in an injury that kept Freeland out until late May, and he likely wasn't someone on a lot of draft radars. With a 4.33 ERA and 20.4% strikeout rate in 120.2 innings, it's not as though he was a standout performer. However, this doesn't tell the whole story.

In 2021, Freeland started using his curveball more, and for good reason. While his slider lagged behind, his curveball induced a 40.3% whiff rate and .205 xwOBA allowed extraordinary numbers. Add in its ability to induce ground balls, and the curveball needs to be the premium pitch in his arsenal.

On the other hand, the 28-year-old's changeup has been a problem for him throughout his career. It has allowed a .387 wOBA, while it induced just a 17.2% whiff rate last year. Add in that the curveball was actually better inducing ground balls than his changeup, and there's no reason for him not to ditch the latter pitch. As the season went on, he started to realize this:

Fewer changeups, more curveballs- it was the perfect revelation for Freeland. From August on, he raised his strikeout rate to 23.7%. Take out his final two starts of the year, and that strikeout rate rises to 26.1%. In other words, the ability to miss enough bats and be effective enough to be a viable fantasy contributor is definitely in the cards for Freeland.

Am I saying that Freeland is going to become an ace? No, especially as long as he remains a Rockie. However, to see him make useful changes to his pitch mix, and combine that with more success to end the year is very enticing. As a late-round dart throw to use in specific matchups, you could certainly do worse! I guess in this case, you'll have to go a mile for Kyle.

 

Mike Minor, Kansas City Royals: Slider

Remember when Mike Minor was seen as one of the better up-and-coming young pitchers in the sport? He was drafted with the seventh overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft and posted a 3.21 ERA in 204.2 innings pitched by his second full season.

Unfortunately, injuries wiped Minor's 2015 and 2016 season, and he spent the entire 2017 season in relief. However, the Rangers still took a chance on him as a starting pitcher, and it worked out. In 2019, he managed to pitch 208.1 innings and posted a 3.59 ERA. For fantasy, that was enough to make him the 24th-most valuable pitcher, according to Fangraphs' 5x5 auction calculator.

Since then, though, things have not gone particularly well. Minor struggled to the tune of a 5.56 ERA in 2020 and compounded that with a 5.05 ERA in his first season as a Royal- he signed a two-year, $18 million dollar deal with them before the 2021 season. As a 34-year-old coming off of multiple poor seasons, there might not be any reason to be intrigued by him. Yet, this is still a pitcher with an interesting arsenal.

When you take a look at Minor's three off-speed pitches, one doesn't quite fit with the others:

MIKE MINOR OFF-SPEED PITCH wOBA ALLOWED (SINCE 2018)

  • Slider: .355 wOBA (21.9% Usage)
  • Changeup: .291 wOBA (19.6% Usage)
  • Curveball: .274 wOBA (15.7% Usage)

For a visualization, here is Minor's xwOBA allowed per pitch:

As you can see, the difference between his slider and his other two off-speed pitches is remarkable. Yet, Minor continues to utilize his slider as his go-to off-speed pitch with two strikes. With how ineffective it has been, that certainly isn't the logical approach.

If Minor were to trade the slider for more usage of his curveball to go along with his changeup, I think we could see him miss more bats and be more effective. Now, that's a major if, and there isn't much reason to expect Minor to make this tweak. That being said, if we hear that he's using the slider less in spring training, or it becomes evident he's ditching it through his first couple of starts, he's someone who can offer value as a streaming option, especially in a favorable home ballpark. I guess you could say this would be no "minor" change!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Carey Price

Canadiens Trade Carey Price to Sharks
Quentin Johnston

Scores Twice in Brazil
Justin Herbert

Spectacular in Win Over Chiefs
Marquise Brown

Sees Absurd Target Share Friday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Exits Early on Friday
Xavier Worthy

Injures Shoulder Early in Brazil, Questionable to Return
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Placed on Injured List With Quad Strain
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched on Friday With Back Tightness
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Play in Season Opener
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Questionable for Season Opener With Calf Issue
Tyreek Hill

Cleared for Week 1
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Second at Omega European Masters
Tyrrell Hatton

Finishes Tied for 32nd at LIV Indianapolis
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Fifth at Omega European Masters
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied For Second in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Xander Schauffele

Finishes 42nd in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched From Friday's Start for Undisclosed Reasons
Christian Kirk

Ruled Out for Week 1
Shohei Ohtani

Returning to the Mound on Friday
Kyle Finnegan

Lands on Injured List With Adductor Strain
Aaron Judge

Returns to Right Field on Friday
De'Von Achane

Without Injury Designation Heading Into Week 1
Christian McCaffrey

Seen Working on Side Field During Friday's Practice
Malik Nabers

Cleared to Play on Sunday
Willson Contreras

' Suspension Reduced, to Start Serving it on Friday
Kodai Senga

Mets Send Kodai Senga to Triple-A to Get Right
Chris Godwin

Officially Ruled Out for Week 1
Malik Nabers

' Reps Limited Friday Due to "Tight" Back
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card
Axel Sola

Alex Sola Set To Make His UFC Debut
Saquon Barkley

Scores Touchdown in Low-Yardage Outing
Jalen Hurts

Rushes for Two Touchdowns on Thursday
Javonte Williams

Salvages Inefficient Outing With Two Touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb

110-Yard Game Marred by Four Drops
Will Shipley

Questionable to Return on Thursday Night
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Expected to Return on Friday
Micah Parsons

Expected to Play in Week 1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits With Knee Contusions
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Limited With Calf Injury
Justin Jefferson

Not on Week 1 Injury Report
Will Smith

Unlikely to Play This Weekend
Shohei Ohtani

to Pitch on Monday
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Brandon Sproat

to Start for Mets on Sunday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

X-Rays Negative on Will Smith's Hand
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
Christian Yelich

Dealing With Soreness in Lower Back
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Kyle Finnegan

Dealing With Groin Issue
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP