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Andy looks at five sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 11 (2025) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
With Week 10 behind us, it is time to take a look at some emerging arms that may warrant a spot on our roster. While these pitchers have shown flashes of potential at times, they have not enjoyed success over an extended period.
In this piece, we will analyze the latest trends for four emerging starting pitchers, including Hayden Birdsong of the San Francisco Giants, Shane Smith of the Chicago White Sox, Luis L. Ortiz of the Cleveland Guardians, and Adrian Houser of the Chicago White Sox.
Who should fantasy managers be targeting this week? Let's dive in!
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Hayden Birdsong, San Francisco Giants
35% Rostered
Birdsong made his MLB debut in the 2024 campaign as a full-time starter but was shifted to a relief role to open the season. During his first 19 1/3 innings of the season (all out of the bullpen), Birdsong was very productive, posting a 2.79 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. During this stretch, the young right-hander struck out 21 batters and allowed just eight walks.
In 2024, Birdsong's command was his Achilles heel, as he held a high 13.7% BB%, which placed him in the first percentile among qualified pitchers.
However, with Jordan Hicks struggling, the Giants opted to move Birdsong back to the rotiation. During his first three starts back in the rotation, the 23-year-old appeared to be on a fast track to a breakout campaign as he posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. During these three outings, Birdsong served up just two free passes in 14 2/3 innings, while striking out 15.
Unfortunately, his weak command has begun to creep back in. In his most recent outing on June 6, Birdsong served up a season-high five walks across 4 1/3 innings against the Braves. In this game, Birdsong was able to keep the Giants in the game as he allowed just two hits and two runs, but he was unable to qualify for a victory.
While his command could be frustrating and detrimental to your WHIP ratio, under the hood, he boasts pretty strong marks.
Over his first two outings in June, Birdsong's most-used pitchers, his fastball and slider, boast a .260 and .316 xwOBA, respectively. In May, these two pitches held a much higher .347 and .396 xwOBA. He has seen many more whiffs from his curveball, raising his 21.1% whiff rate in May to an eye-catching 33.3% in June.
Although the sample size is smaller for the month, it is a promising sign to see him continue to limit hard contact.
Overall, Birdsong sits with a 27.9% K rate, which places him in the 83rd percentile among qualified pitchers. He has generated a .230 xBA (69th percentile) and a 3.69 xERA (53rd percentile), which should continue to decrease given his strong metrics in June.
If you are looking for an SP with upside, there may not be better options than Birdsong on your waiver wire. While the walks could get out of hand in a few starts, his arsenal continues to develop and should be rostered in all standard formats.
Hayden Birdsong, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/VwGeBgdHNq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2025
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
25% Rostered
The 25-year-old has continued to impress but remains available in three-quarters of fantasy leagues. Through his first 62 1/3 innings in the majors, Smith has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP. During this stretch, Smith tallied 60 punchouts and has held a 9.5% walk rate, which is significantly above the average marks.
Can the young right-hander continue this impressive debut campaign?
Smith has leaned on his fastball, which has contributed to much of his success. This pitch is deployed 43.4% of the time, more than 20 points higher than his second-most-used pitch.
His fastball has generated a strong .233 xBA with a .374 xSLG, slightly higher than the .187 BA and .275 SLG, suggesting regression could be on the way. However, even his expected stats are pretty impressive.
Through April and May, Smith typically deployed his changeup as his No. 2 pitch. It has been a very effective secondary option, boasting a 292 xwOBA with a 35.7% whiff rate and a 20.8% put-away rate.
However, in his most recent start on June 3, Smith opted to deploy his curveball as his No. 2 pitch. The curveball was typically deployed 9.0% of the time through April and May. However, in this outing, it was thrown 23.5% of the time, much higher than the changeup (14.1%).
The curveball was very effective in calming the Detroit bats, boasting a 54.5% whiff rate with a .120 xwOBA.
Shane Smith tonight.
5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
13 swing & misses.
What a performance.pic.twitter.com/vDPBFRSg5B
— Mike (@ChiSoxFanMike) June 4, 2025
Sitting in the 90th percentile in Pitching Run Value on Baseball Savant and with an emerging curveball, Smith should be a high-priority arm to target if needing help in your rotation.
Luis L. Ortiz, Cleveland Guardians
21% Rostered
Since May 11, Ortiz has held a relatively solid 2.28 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. During this stretch, he has posted a 10.1 K/9 but struggled with his command, allowing walks at a 4.6 BB/9 rate.
Before this stretch, the right-hander held a high 5.30 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP over his first 37 2/3 innings of work this season.
The primary change Ortiz has enacted is the increased usage of his slider. In April, Ortiz threw his slider just 21.5% of the time, and relied instead on his four-seamer and cutter as his top two pitches. However, in May and his first start in June, Ortiz has begun to deploy his slider as his primary pitch.
This slight tweak has helped him significantly in May, as this pitch generated a low .141 xBA with a hefty 50.2% whiff rate. In his most recent outing against the Yankees on June 4, his slider posted a .187 xwOBA against one of the top lineups in the game.
Yankees can’t seem to figure out Luis Ortiz tonight pic.twitter.com/IWuvHE2QPa
— The Yankee Report (@YankeeReport_) June 5, 2025
However, while his slider has helped him get back on track and post higher strikeout numbers, his fastballs continue to hold him back. In May, his four-seamer and sinker (second and third-most-used pitches) generated a .448 and a .286 xwOBA, respectively. In his most recent outing, his sinker caused him his most trouble, generating a high .414 xwOBA.
While his slider has shown high potential, his lack of a true fastball makes him a difficult pitcher to trust. The 26-year-old currently sits in the 20th percentile in xERA and is best viewed as a streaming option for now.
Adrian Houser, Chicago White Sox
15% Rostered
The final pitcher (and second White Sox player) we will look at in this piece is Houser. The White Sox signed Houser off waivers when the Texas Rangers parted ways with him in mid-May.
Across his first four starts on the Southside (24 1/3 innings), the 32-year-old right-hander has looked dominant, holding an impressive 1.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Across this stint, Houser has struck out 20 batters while allowing walks at a 6,5% rate (75th percentile).
He has logged at least six innings in each outing. In his most recent start, Houser tossed six innings of one-run ball en route to earning his second victory of the campaign. In this outing, Houser allowed six hits and one walk and struck out six batters for the third-straight start.
Another solid outing from Adrian Houser pic.twitter.com/QBLqDhtL23
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) June 7, 2025
In 2024, Houser tossed just 69 1/3 innings in the majors with the Mets. However, he did not find as much success as he his now, as he posted a 5.48 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP. During this stint, he struck out batters at a modest 14.6% rate, which placed him in the second percentile among qualified pitchers
So what has changed for the 32-year-old?
Through his first four outings with the White Sox, Houser has begun to deploy two fastballs, his sinker and his four-seamer, as his No. 1 and No. 2 pitches. However, in 2024, Houser relied primarily on his sinker and only mixed in a four-seamer 16% of the time, his third-most-used pitch.
His sinker has begun to improve, generating a .271 xwOBA, compared to the high .336 xwOBA it held in 2024.
By mixing in two fastballs, Houser has seen his secondary pitches tally whiffs at a much higher rate. His curveball and changeup (No. 3 and No. 4 most-used pitches) have generated a strong 34.5% and 46.7% whiff rate, respectively. Last season, his changeup generated whiffs at a much lower 33.6% rate.
Sitting in the 74th percentile in xERA suggests Houser could see slight regression but should remain relatively solid. While wins will be hard to find in Chicago, he is a strong SP5 to round out our rotation, especially if you have several arms on the IL.
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