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John Johnson breaks down Nick Chubb's fantasy football outlook for the Houston Texans for 2025. Should you draft Chubb in fantasy football leagues in 2025?
The Houston Texans signed running back Nick Chubb on June 9, ending his time as a free agent and landing him on a playoff team in 2024. Chubb will now share a backfield with running back Joe Mixon, and presumably step into the RB2 spot behind him.
This signing is an interesting one. While Chubb played poorly in 2024 after coming back from a devastating knee injury that ended his 2023 season very early, he might still have some juice left. A broken foot eventually ended his 2024 season altogether.
But with yet another offseason to recover, the Chubb we get in 2025 could be the best we'll see of him again in his career. And injuries aside, a player of his (former) caliber at least deserves some evaluation, so let's dive into his landing spot for this season and fantasy football outlook!
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Nick Chubb Landing Spot
Chubb is probably better than RB Dameon Pierce, at least in the Texans' current run scheme, so we should get that out of the way first. This piece will assume that Pierce, who was a non-factor last season, continues to be a non-factor this season in Houston.
That would make Mixon the team's RB1 and Chubb the RB2. At that point, it would be important to delve into how we think the workload will be split up, at least after we speculate on how close Chubb will get to 100 percent this season. His knee injury was incredibly serious.
Nick Chubb on his injuries:
“With what I did, it takes about 2 years to really get back. I’m over the hump. I was able to get a full year in.. now I’m feeling as good as I have been in a long time.” pic.twitter.com/etSOVYdlMA
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 17, 2025
Chubb will land on a team that leaned very heavily into the run in 2024, at basically all costs. That might change this season, though. The offensive line remains a big question mark in pass protection, but they invested very heavily at wide receiver after an injury-riddled WR season last year.
With both Nico Collins and Tank Dell (knee) missing significant time in 2024 due to injuries, perhaps now-fired offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik thought his only option was to run Mixon as much as possible. And he wore down toward the end of the season.
New offensive coordinator Nick Caley could opt for a more balanced attack, and while that might mean less overall volume for the backfield, it could help open up more rushing lanes as defenses key in more on the pass. That is, of course, if the offensive line can keep quarterback C.J. Stroud away from pressure.
PFF assigns blame for every pressure.
Guys who were under a lot of pressure, but it usually wasn't their fault:
-Geno Smith
-CJ Stroud
-Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/IlsvqbXCO7— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2025
Stroud was a shell of his 2023 self last season. He threw horrible interceptions, often missed open receivers, and generally crumbled as a pass-catcher when under pressure. Considering the Texans traded away their elite left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, he could be in for a rough season.
That would be bad for the whole offense. But perhaps with a better WR corps, the passing game can flourish under new direction and help Stroud recover his confidence. I do have a ton of faith in wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who the team drafted in 2025.
Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Outlook
A fully healthy Chubb would likely just be better than Mixon, but that ship has likely sailed. It's not as if he'll be useless, of course. It's unlikely that Chubb will simply be a backup handcuff who doesn't get any touches while Mixon takes almost all the meaningful workload.
Instead, this could be more of a 1A/1B situation, with Mixon leading the backfield in touches, but Chubb still getting some significant usage. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but the split will, of course, depend on Chubb's health.
Very curious to track Nick Chubb throughout the season.
Everyone points to his poor 2024 metrics - he was coming off of two significant surgeries to address his blown out knee. I expect him to be closer to himself this season.
pic.twitter.com/8xi8MQOgtb— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) June 11, 2025
Mixon himself had a few great games in 2024, but a few highly inefficient duds to go along with them. Even in games where he was used heavily, and as a workhorse, he often failed to eclipse 4.0 yards per carry. Perhaps his incredibly heavy usage in Cincinnati was partly to blame.
Joe Mixon in his first 7 games:
-151 carries for 655 yards (4.33 YPC)Joe Mixon in his last 7 games:
-94 carries for 361 yards (3.8 YPC)Bobby Slowik: fired
Texans new OC: Rams passing game coordinator
Texans new signing: RB Nick Chubb
Fading Mixon at ADP pic.twitter.com/aKa6bYVOmD
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 17, 2025
Running backs with a ton of mileage under their belts wearing down as the season goes on shouldn't surprise anyone. As all the hard hits accumulate, a ton of minor injuries can pop up, which hamper performance. An NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint, and even durable players can struggle to make it through.
So, it makes sense that part of the reason Chubb was signed was to take the load off Mixon's shoulders, help him stay healthier, and hopefully boost his efficiency, all of which would likely continue to suffer if his usage remained steady (steadily too high) in 2025.
Zone YPC vs. Man/Gap YPC (2021-2024)
Joe Mixon: 3.8 YPC vs. 4.4 YPC
Nick Chubb: 4.8 YPG vs. 5.2 YPC
Dameon Pierce: 4.0 YPC vs. 4.1 YPC
Woody Marks (NCAA): 4.8 YPC vs. 5.5 YPC51% of Houston's runs came on zone concepts last year (9th-most) https://t.co/3ZdJDCv2UP
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 12, 2025
Additionally, Chubb is simply a better fit overall for Houston's run schemes than Mixon is -- assuming that Caley maintains this system. As you can see from the post above, zone concepts were heavily utilized by Houston's rushing offense last season.
But Caley seems set to transition it to a man/gap scheme. Chubb easily bested Mixon in man/gap schemes throughout his career. His injury will likely bring the numbers down a bit, but they're still impressive. At the very least, it's not hard to imagine Chubb and Mixon displaying similar efficiency in 2025.
This backfield might be closer to an even split than many fantasy managers think. This has big implications for Mixon -- admittedly, bigger than those for Chubb -- but in deeper leagues, especially those without points per reception bonuses, it gives Chubb intriguing value.
One thing to note about new Texans OC Nick Caley
From what I understand, he was one of the guys that McVay brought in from the Patriots to help streamline the Rams' transition away from being an outside zone heavy team (the Gurley era) into being arguably *the* gap scheme team…
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) June 6, 2025
There's a world in which Chubb is simply more efficient than Mixon in 2025. A 50/50 split of backfield touches isn't out of the realm of possibility. What this does is it makes Chubb a great value at his ADP, though with admittedly pretty heavily restricted upside.
I don't envision Chubb winning anyone redraft leagues in 2025. He's now 29 years old with two absolutely devastating knee injuries in his past. His surgically repaired joints and ligaments are likely to cause him trouble for the rest of his career, however long that may be.
Highest 15+ yard rush% among RBs since 2006, min 1250 att (PFF)
1. Nick Chubb: 7.6%
2. Jamaal Charles: 6.7%
3. Adrian Peterson: 6.4%
4. LeSean McCoy: 6.1%
5. DeAngelo Williams: 6.0%
6. Michael Turner: 5.9%
7. Chris Johnson: 5.8%
8. Arian Foster: 5.7%pic.twitter.com/unzFgunK94— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) August 6, 2024
Not long ago, he was still a remarkably explosive back. In an age where we see even 29-30-year-old RBs still putting up big numbers in good offensive environments, we could see one or two final surprise seasons from Chubb before he hangs it up for good.
He might be a decent spot-starter to fill in your flex spots in normal-size leagues during bye weeks, or a decent depth player in deeper leagues. For that, he's worth his RB54 price tag as a very late-round dart throw.
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