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Scott Fish Bowl Draft Review - Part 1


If you’re one of the 12 people in North America that hasn’t heard of it, the Scott Fish Bowl is an annual season-long super flex fantasy football tournament that pits literally hundreds of fans and analysts against each other. The tournament also features some unique scoring rules. The primary rules to be aware of this year are superflex (start two QBS) and the scoring, which is neither standard nor PPR. It’s point-per-first down, with a bonus above that for tight ends.

Although the scoring is different than what you’re used to, Mr. Pierre Camus and I each thought it would be worthwhile to review our drafts. There are thoughts about roster construction and player evaluation that you’ll find helpful no matter what format you play in. Besides, if you’re on Twitter, you’ll see constant banter about the tournament under the #SFB7 hashtag; we’ll give you some insight so you can at least follow the conversation.

Here are our rosters. I'll walk you through mine and share a few thoughts on Pierre's as well.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Fish Bowl Recap - Charlie

 

You can find my final roster here. I had the second pick in my division’s draft, meaning my picks came at the turn. My first pick was No. 2 overall; my next picks didn’t come until No. 23 and 26 overall, then I sat out until pick 47, etc.

My biggest takeaway: if you’re picking at the turns, you must reach for players that you want. A lot of fantasy analysis rightly focuses on ADP and finding values. However, when there are almost two full rounds between your picks, you either have to go up and get a guy early, or you have to miss out.

I really struggled with this draft. I found myself at the end of positional runs a lot, and in hindsight, I pivoted to other positions too early. Based on pre-draft research, I figured that the TE premium plus the rapid decline in projected scoring at the position made TE the position to attack. And since it’s a superflex format I wanted to get a pair of top QBs. I’d hoped to take a stud running back first, follow up with two top TEs at the round 2 / 3 turn, and then hit QBs with my next two picks. From there, I’d take the best player available when I was on the clock. My plan collapsed right away, as several other drafters appear to have had the same plan. Here’s how I adapted (or didn’t) on the fly.

My plan collapsed right away, as several other drafters appear to have had the same plan. Here’s how I adapted (or didn’t) on the fly.

Round 1, Pick 2

My Pick: Le’Veon Bell. As planned. As he reportedly told the Steelers, he’s as good as a top RB and a wide receiver. Having Bell means I’ll feel comfortable waiting to add more RBs until much later in the draft.

Round 2, Pick 11

My Pick: Mike Evans. So much for plans. Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, and Greg Olsen were all picked before I got back on the clock. For good measure, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and Matt Ryan were also taken.

I probably should have started the next tier of tight ends. Instead, I attacked wide receiver, since there were several top-shelf options available. Evans won’t get as many targets as last year, but should get enough to remain an upper echelon performer. In fact, the offensive additions around him might improve his efficiency, offsetting a loss of volume.

Round 3, Pick 2

My Pick: T.Y. Hilton. Same as above. Another top-10 wide receiver gives me an early advantage at the position. Hilton should thrive in the Colts high volume offense. No other receiver on the team threatens what should be a monster target share.

Round 4, Pick 11

My Pick: Blake Bortles. Remember, we can start two quarterbacks. Bortles isn’t a name that comes to mind when you think of “elite QB,” but I think he’ll be serviceable. He was the 20th QB selected in this draft, so there weren’t many options left, at least not options I’m confident will be full season starters. Bortles has great receivers and has been a top-five fantasy QB in the past. As long as he performs close enough to league average that my team stays competitive, I’m happy.

Round 5, Pick 2

My Pick: Ryan Tannehill. Rinse and repeat. He’s a guaranteed full season starter, barring injury, and was available late (for this league anyway) in the draft. Like Bortles, he also offers some modest rushing stats and has a good cast of receivers.

This is also the second-time I’ve doubled up at a position with back-to-back picks. This is one of the few things I like about picking at a turn. Lopping off two players at a position can give you a positional advantage and force other drafters to settle for players at a lower tier.

Round 6, Pick 11

My Pick: Jason Witten. I know, right. At a premium position, he’s my top option. At least he’s a full-season starter with a decent floor if uninspiring ceiling.

Round 7, Pick 2

My Pick: Sam Bradford. I went back to the QB well because to have any chance in this format you need to be able to start two QBs every week. Bradford was the 24th QB taken in this draft and other than Alex Smith (the 26th) is the last QB that will start the full season, barring injury. He’s got two good weapons in Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph, but he’s definitely my No. 3 QB.

Round 8, Pick 11

My Pick: Larry Fitzgerald. I’m pleased to get him this late. He’s the undisputed WR1 on his team and should have no trouble getting 140 targets.

Round 9, Pick 2

My Pick: Stefon Diggs. I’m also excited about this pick, and not because it gives me the Bradford-Diggs stack. Diggs is a borderline WR1 on a per-game basis, which gives me four receivers with legitimate shots to be in the top-12 at season’s end.

Round 10, Pick 11

My Pick: Charles Clay. His health is always questionable, but he also has some upside. Buffalo has a new offensive coordinator, so more passing should be in the works. Clay is also the team’s No. 2 receiving weapon, after the oft-injured Sammy Watkins. I think Clay has a decent shot at a TE1 season if he can stay healthy. Whenever he plays, he should get a good amount of targets.

Round 11, Pick 2

My Pick: Ben Watson. Remember the TE position gets premium scoring, so even though we’re only halfway through the draft, Watson is the 24th TE selected. This pick obviously looks better now than it did at the time, but even then I thought it made some sense. Baltimore pursued Watson in free agency, so they clearly wanted him, and the last time he played he was effective. Now that Dennis Pitta, Crockett Gillmore, and Maxx Williams are all on the shelf, Watson is in line to have a decent workload.

Round 12, Pick 11

My Pick: Duke Johnson. Just my second RB. I’m okay with that because (a) I already have a stud, and only need to start two, and (b) at the most injury-prone position, I’m confident I can find someone on waivers. He’s been one of the most heavily targeted RBs since he came to the NFL and is even getting some opportunities as a WR. If Isaiah Crowell misses any time, Johnson could have a huge workload. Safe floor, high ceiling. I like it.

Round 13, Pick 2

My Pick: Marvin Jones. He was Detroit’s best receiver for a stretch last year until injuries starting piling up. If he stays healthy, he should get 110 targets or so. There’s even some upside from there, now that Anquan Boldin is gone (and Eric Ebron is nursing an injury, again).

Round 14, Pick 11

My Pick: Eric Swoope. There it is. Another TE. Jack Doyle is first in line, but I’m not convinced he’ll dominate the Colts TE workload. If Doyle is injured or falters (or another receiver, like Donte Moncrief struggles or gets hurt), Swoope has the athleticism to be a dynamic weapon. He produced well in limited opportunity last year, and I like his upside.

Round 15, Pick 2

My Pick: Ted Ginn, Jr. No, he won’t be the Saints No. 1 WR. But he should get close to 100 targets. He’s done that the past two years in a lower-volume Carolina offense. New Orleans has targets to spare, and one of the best QBs in the league. Ginn should give me some big weeks and has a WR3 season in his range of outcomes.

Round 16, Pick 11

My Pick: Chris Thompson. The Washington RB has a secure role in the passing game, and that’s enough for me. He won’t get a lot of rushes, but neither Samaje Perine nor Rob Kelley will threaten his receiving workload. He should be serviceable if I need to play him.

Round 17, Pick 2

My Pick: Charles Sims. Do you see a pattern? Another pass-catching RB who has a chance at a much bigger workload if someone in front of him stumbles. Decent floor, high ceiling.

Round 18, Pick 11

My Pick: Kyle Juszczyk. Third verse, same as the first. Juszczyk was given a huge contract, so he’ll absolutely be on the field a lot. He’s a capable receiver if called on.

Round 19, Pick 2

My Pick: Aaron Jones. We’re deep in the draft, and I’m tossing darts. I like him more than Jamaal Williams and there’s a decent chance Ty Montgomery isn’t an every-down RB.

Round 20, Pick 11

My Pick: Elijah Hood. Another lottery ticket that’s easy to cut if I need to make a waiver move. There’s a good chance Marshawn Lynch can’t hack it, in which case Hood could earn a role.

Round 21, Pick 2

My Pick: Branden Oliver. The most like change-of-pace option behind Melvin Gordon has played well in the past when given an opportunity. Also a good pass catcher, so could have some standalone value, plus huge upside if Gordon is hurt.

Round 22, Pick 11

My Pick: Terrell Watson. A tiny bit of Le’Veon Bell insurance. Watson is unheralded but athletic and was very productive in college. I like his odds vs. James Conner, should Bell miss time.

Thoughts About Pierre’s Team

He’s got a legitimate 1 – 2 punch at QB with Derek Carr and Drew Brees. Brees will give him an edge over most teams top QB, and Carr should hold his own and occasionally provide an edge against opponents’ No. 2 QB.

At RB, Frank Gore and Lamar Miller should keep him afloat at the position. Both are likely RB2s. They won’t win you weeks, but they’ll keep you in the game. Beyond that, I like the Kerwynn Williams, Deandre Washington, and Jeremy McNichols picks. All three could have very significant roles if the starters in front of them go down.

Pierre also has Mike Evans so I’m obviously on board with that pick. I also really like Quincy Enunwa. His QB play won’t be great, but he’ll have all the volume he can handle. Allen Robinson has top-12 potential and Tyreek Hill is a sneaky bet to finish in the top 18 or so WRs.

It looks like Pierre may have also gotten squeezed out at the TE position. Martellus Bennett should be a solid player, and George Kittle and Jared Cook should have some useful weeks between them, but overall this is the weak link on his team, in my opinion.

 

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