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Mike Riggall analyzes the trendy Zero RB fantasy football strategy and identifies some Zero RB draft targets.
The Zero RB draft strategy has been one of the most discussed topics in the fantasy football community over the last few years. The theory behind the Zero RB draft strategy is that there is less volatility in elite wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends than there is at the running back position, which means you should use your early picks on the less volatile positions and worry about drafting running backs later.
Fantasy football managers who use this draft strategy believe it's to their advantage to acquire the best players at wide receiver, tight end and quarterback while others take significant risks with early picks used on running backs. There are pros and cons to the Zero RB strategy which will be debated from year to year, but as long as high-end running backs miss time due to injury each season, this strategy will not go away. Personally, the Zero RB strategy is not something I actively try to execute, but if the draft falls a certain way and you simply can't pass up value at other positions, it's good to be prepared.
So far in 2021, several high-end wide receivers are being drafted towards the back-end of the first round and start of the second. If you start a draft with Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, or use an early pick on a tight end such as Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, you may find yourself going the Zero RB route. For the sake of discussion, let's say you start your draft with Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and then Allen Robinson in the first three rounds. The aforementioned trio is a formidable group and will be difference makers in your lineup, but if you go this route, you're going to want to scoop up the best available running backs on the board within the next two rounds before the talent pool completely dries up. Below I detailed some high-end zero RB targets that are going between the fourth and fifth rounds and then some deeper targets that are going between the sixth and 10th rounds of drafts.
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High-End Zero RB Targets
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars - ADP 41
The Jacksonville Jaguars used a first round pick on Travis Etienne which means he will likely have a massive role in the Jaguars offense immediately, but the Jaguars still have James Robinson on their roster who is coming off of a 1,000-yard rookie season himself. This leads fantasy managers to question exactly what Etienne's role will be in the Jaguars rushing attack this year, but early reports out of camp are glowing over his pass catching ability. Etienne is elusive with the ball in his hands and will be a great RB in PPR formats as the Jaguars figure to be playing from behind a lot this season.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders - ADP 44
Josh Jacobs is a frustrating running back to have on your roster because the Raiders simply don't use him that much in the passing game, throwing the ball his way just 72 times in two seasons, making him a little touchdown-dependent. Adding to the frustration, the Raiders added Kenyan Drake to their roster in the offseason which has caused Jacobs ADP to take a dive heading into the 2021 season. All that being said, Jacobs is just 23-years old and coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with 19 rushing touchdowns on his resume which makes him a decent selection 40-plus picks into a draft.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos - ADP 55
The Broncos invested a second round pick on Javonte Williams in the 2021 NFL Draft and while Melvin Gordon is still just 28-years old, that's kind of old for a running back, which means he's likely at the end of his prime. It's not a matter of whether Williams will take over as the Broncos starting running back, but rather, it's a matter of when he takes over. A few positive reports out of Broncos training camp or a splashy performance in a preseason game may cause Williams ADP to skyrocket, making him a value at his current ADP in the fifth round.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns - ADP 61
Nick Chubb is an elite running back but he did have some injury issues in 2020 causing him to miss four games, giving way to Kareem Hunt in the starting lineup. Hunt is a stud in his own right and a sure-fire RB1 if Chubb misses time. Even with Chubb in the lineup, Hunt sees consistent work in the passing game which makes him viable in PPR formats. However, if Chubb is healthy, Hunt's ability to put up RB1 numbers will likely be week-to-week and possibly touchdown-dependent because he won't get a significant portion of the rushing work. Hunt was actually the RB-10 in 2020 while Chubb was RB-11, with Hunt touching the ball 30 more times than Chubb on the season.
Now that we have gone through four Zero RB targets you can draft in the first five rounds, we will go through some hypothetical Zero RB rosters based on ADP. If you start a draft with Hill, Jefferson and then Robinson in the first three rounds, you can follow that up with Jacobs or Etienne in the fourth, and then Kareem Hunt or Javonte Williams in the fifth round. That draft would leave you with the following lineup:
- WR - Tyreek Hill
- WR - Justin Jefferson
- WR - Allen Robinson
- RB - Josh Jacobs
- RB - Kareem Hunt
If that lineup scares you because you don't have a true "bell-cow" running back, you need to evaluate whether you're comfortable going with the Zero RB strategy or if you need to ensure you come out of the second round with at least one running back no matter what. For the sake of the discussion, if you draft Joe Mixon in the second round instead of Justin Jefferson, you wouldn't feel as compelled to draft a running back in the fourth, so you could draft a much more stable player like Cooper Kupp instead of the touchdown-dependent Jacobs or the unknown in Etienne. Here is what that roster would look like:
- WR - Tyreek Hill
- WR - Allen Robinson
- WR - Cooper Kupp
- RB - Joe Mixon
- RB - Kareem Hunt
The above-lineup featuring Mixon is definitely more balanced than the initial approach, but Cooper Kupp simply doesn't offer the ceiling that Justin Jefferson does and while Mixon is capable of being an RB1, he's no lock to do so. While the lineup with Mixon is projected to score more projected points on the season than the Zero RB lineup, you need to evaluate whether you want to accept the risk of taking Mixon, who is coming off a foot-injury, over a young, ascending, wide receiver in Justin Jefferson. If you take the Zero RB route, you will likely need to rely on some guys drafted in the later rounds as your running back depth. Here are some guys being taken towards the end of the sixth round and later that will help you build your Zero RB roster.
Mid-Round Zero RB Targets
Michael Carter, NY Jets - ADP 72
Michael Carter will likely be the No. 1 running back on the Jets this year because they simply don't have anybody else on their roster that can get it done. Tevin Coleman is a shell of what he once was in Atlanta and La'Mical Perine hasn't shown much promise early in his career. The most carries Coleman has ever had in a season was 167 back in 2018 when he rushed for a career-high 800 yards and added a career high 32 catches for 276 yards and nine total touchdowns. Carter is more of a pass-catching back than a between-the-tackles pounder, which is a positive since the Jets defense isn't very good and they figure to be playing from behind a lot this season. Monitor Carter's ADP throughout the preseason because if he shows well he will surely rise up draft boards.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers - ADP 76
The 49ers have plenty of injury-riddled running backs on their roster, including Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert. Trey Sermon is an ideal fit behind the 49ers zone-blocking scheme and he will likely get an opportunity early, especially since Wilson won't be ready to start the season. The 49ers traded up in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft to get Sermon at 75-overall, which demonstrates they want him to be their guy. Even if Sermon doesn't win the job outright in camp, it's extremely unlikely that Mostert remains healthy for the entire season. The 49ers also added Wayne Gallman to the roster this offseason, but he's never done much in the NFL, with just a single 100-yard rushing game in his career which came against the Seahawks in 2020. Keep an eye on Sermon's ADP because it's already gone up about 12 spots since late July, and a few positive reports out of camp may send his ADP through the roof.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots - ADP 88
The Patriots backfield has been a mess for a while, but it was especially messy in 2020 as the team transitioned from Tom Brady to Cam Newton without a full offseason program. Heading into 2021, Newton has a year under his belt in the offense and the Patriots also selected Mac Jones in the first round of the NFL Draft which means the team should have better play from their quarterback this season. Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Patriots, they will be relying on the running game quite heavily. New England lost Joe Thuney to free agency, but they brought back Trent Brown so their offensive line will continue to be a strength for them. Reports out of New England are that Damien Harris will be the bell-cow running back with Sony Michel falling out of favor, making Harris a great pick in the eighth round even though he doesn't offer much in the passing game.
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers - ADP 99
The Packers let Jamaal Williams walk via free agency this offseason and it's well known that Matt LaFleur has wanted to run the ball a ton since he's become the coach in Green Bay. Dillon will likely take over the work vacated by Williams and possibly some more early down carries as he brings a level of physicality to the table that Aaron Jones does not. The Packers have one of the best one-two punches in the NFL with Dillon and Jones, but if you roll either of these guys out there on a weekly basis, things may be a little inconsistent week-to-week depending on who scores.
Phillip Lindsay, Houston Texans - ADP 153
The Texans are a terrible football team in disarray and figures to be playing from behind a lot in 2021. The Texans running back depth chart is littered with veterans hovering around 30-years old and between David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead, Lindsay is the most explosive. Lindsay also offers tremendous versatility in the passing game, hauling in 35 passes in each of his first two seasons in the league, while also gaining over 1,000 yards on the ground twice in his career. At his current ADP, Lindsay could be a league-winner if he carves out a large role in Houston.
At the end of the day, the Zero RB strategy is something you need to be comfortable with if you're going to do it, but at the same time, it's good to know some Zero RB targets in case certain guys fall to you which causes you to pass on running backs early in your draft. If you decide to go with a true Zero RB strategy and hold off on drafting a running backs so you can load up with less volatile players at other positions, here is an example of a possible roster through seven rounds based on current ADP:
- QB - Patrick Mahomes (3rd Round)
- WR - Tyreek Hill (1st Round)
- WR - Justin Jefferson (2nd Round)
- WR - Brandon Aiyuk (5th Round)
- RB - Josh Jacobs (4th Round)
- RB - Michael Carter (7th Round)
- TE - T.J. Hockenson (6th Round)
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