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RotoBaller's Brant Henson projects the 12 teams that will qualify for the 2025 College Football Playoff. His college football predictions and breakdown for next year's CFP.
2025 College Football Playoff Predictions
While last season’s College Football Playoff format has already been tossed to the side, we are still getting a 12-team format heading into 2025. The only difference this season is that bracket seeding will be in-line with the rankings rather than giving conference champions byes. While this severely disincentivizes conference championship games, potentially to the point where it would even make sense to rest players on championship weekend, it does give the four best teams a bye.
Personally, I think there are much better formats than what we have here for 2025. We are going to see the fall of conference championship weekend but fortunately as we learned and adapted from 2024, the 2026 iteration of the playoff likely won’t look like 2025’s format.
With that being said, this 12-team format with the top four ranked teams along with auto-bids for conference champions is what we have for now. What teams will qualify for college football’s second expanded postseason? Read on to see predictions, both layups and bold takes.
1. Texas Longhorns
The schedule is certainly no cakewalk for Texas, which opens the season playing on the road against the defending champions. That being said, the Longhorns are college football’s most talented team entering 2025. First-year starter Arch Manning has a ton of weapons at his disposal between returners DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo, west coast transfers Emmett Mosley V and tight end Jack Endries, and freshmen Kaliq Lockett and Jamie Ffrench.
While they do only return one starting offensive lineman, the backfield is loaded with star talent in C.J. Baxter, Quintrevion Wisner, and Jerrick Gibson. The defense is loaded with returning stars, including EDGE Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., cornerback Malik Muhammad, and safety Michael Taaffe. This could be the best defensive unit in all of college football, a common theme with the last few champions.
Along with the Week 1 game at Ohio State, Texas has to play at both Georgia and Florida. Arguably, their three toughest matchups come on the road, which will set this team up well for a deep playoff run.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
The defending national champions have their work cut out for them this season after losing 14 players to the NFL Draft, along with others who went undrafted. But they do return arguably the best player on both sides of the ball in the nation in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs.
Quarterback Julian Sayin has yet to play a meaningful snap of college football but will be thrust into the spotlight on August 30th when Texas comes to town. Alongside Smith, he has a loaded crop of receivers including Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss, Mylan Graham, and Purdue transfer tight end Max Klare. Joining Downs in the secondary are returning starters Davison Igbinosun, Jermaine Mathews Jr., and Sonny Styles.
Games to circle include an October 11 road trip to Illinois, Penn State on November 1, and, of course, the unbeatable Wolverines on Thanksgiving weekend. The Buckeyes are the favorite to come out on top of the Big Ten this year, but beating Michigan just has not been possible since 2019. After the way that last season’s loss ignited the team for the playoff run, this could be the year that Ryan Day finally gets the job done.
3. Clemson Tigers
This is one of Dabo Swinney’s most talented teams since the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence days. With all of the talent returning to Death Valley, it feels like now or never for the Tigers. After a rough 2023, Cade Klubnik put it all together last year and threw for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns while rushing for 463 yards and seven more scores. He gets a huge lift with his top three receivers from last season all back in orange — Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore form college football’s most proven trio.
On defense, the Tigers have a plethora of potential first-rounders. EDGE T.J. Parker, defensive tackle Peter Woods, and cornerback Avieon Terrell are going to be the core of a very talented unit. Clemson’s schedule isn’t easy despite what projects as a cakewalk ACC. They open the season with LSU, have potentially tough road games at Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Louisville, and have to travel to Columbia to close the season against a tough Gamecocks squad. With that being said, this team is too familiar with each other, too talented, and too well-coached not to glide to another ACC title, and potentially an undefeated season.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
If James Franklin is finally going to break through, it has to be with this team. The shocking returns of key players in quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has this team full of talent and experience. Despite losing their best offensive player in tight end Tyler Warren and their best defensive player in Abdul Carter, the Nittany Lions remain loaded on both sides of the ball.
The biggest upgrade on this team compared to last season’s team is the receiver room. After having just one receiver clear 500 yards and none clear 800 yards, the Nittany Lions’ top three receivers for 2025 are all portal players. Trebor Pena recorded 941 yards and nine touchdowns with Syracuse last season, Devonte Ross put up 1,043 yards and 11 touchdowns at Troy, and Kyron Hudson flashed with highlight-reel catches en route to 462 yards and three scores with USC. This revamped room offers many more mouths to feed for Allar.
The schedule helps out tremendously. While Penn State does have to travel to Columbus, the remainder of its challenging games are all at home. Oregon, Nebraska, and Indiana will all travel to State College. Anything less than 11-1 would be not only disappointing, but shocking for this team. They’re as close to a playoff lock as you can be in early July.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama’s first season under Kalen DeBoer was very underwhelming. They rightfully missed out on the playoffs after losing to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Oklahoma, and then they went on to lose the ReliaQuest Bowl to a Michigan team with no offensive pulse.
Things will be different this year for Alabama. Jalen Milroe, whose poor decision-making cost the Tide many of those aforementioned games, is off to the NFL. The ongoing quarterback battle between redshirt junior Ty Simpson, sophomore Austin Mack, and true freshman Keelon Russell will determine who gets to call the shots this season. There is little experience in the room, but a lot of talent. The Crimson Tide returns a lot offensively, including stalwart left tackle Kadyn Proctor, star receiver Ryan Williams, slot receiver Germie Bernard, and running back Jam Miller. On defense, LT Overton and Keon Sabb will look to anchor the line and the secondary.
Following Nick Saban is a nearly impossible task, but DeBoer is a good coach. He knows it is playoffs or bust for the Tide this year, and while the schedule is not easy, I like this team to lose a maximum of two games. That would qualify them for the dance. Games to circle are the SEC opener on September 27th at Georgia, an October 11 road game against Missouri, a trip to Columbia on October 25, LSU on November 8, and a road matchup against rejuvenated rival Auburn in the last week of the regular season. It will be a fun season for the Crimson Tide with a plethora of marquee games, and one that fans hope will end up with a playoff berth.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Fresh off a national championship appearance, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have reloaded their team after the departure of many key players, including quarterback Riley Leonard. Replacing him will be C.J. Carr, who has yet to throw a pass at the collegiate level. Fortunately for Carr, a lot of pressure will be taken off of him with star running back Jeremiyah Love demanding attention in the backfield.
Carr has a talented receiver room to work with as Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison return, and are joined by Virginia transfer Malachi Fields and Wisconsin transfer Will Pauling. Marcus Freeman’s defense will flow through shutdown cornerback Leonard Moore, who broke out as a true freshman last season. There isn’t a ton of returning talent, but Freeman knows how to get the most out of his defenses.
The Irish have a very manageable schedule. They will come out of the gates playing at Miami, followed by a bye week and then a home game against Texas A&M. Two tough games to kick the season off, but two teams that Notre Dame should beat on paper. Aside from those two, the only truly challenging games left are home matchups with Boise State and USC. We should know early in the season if the Irish will be playoff-bound, and the answer will likely be yes.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
The first six teams in my predictions were mainstream choices. It’s hard to find a playoff prediction that does not include Texas, Ohio State, Clemson, Penn State, Alabama, and Notre Dame. Now is where things get a little dicey. After an up-and-down season that ultimately saw Ole Miss get left out of the playoffs in 2024, Lane Kiffin reloaded his team via the transfer portal once again. This year’s iteration of the Rebels will look different, but they should be equally as talented as they were a season ago.
Sophomore quarterback Austin Simmons doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he came in against Georgia a season ago and looked extremely sharp, leading a touchdown drive. The young quarterback is talented and should be a great fit for Kiffin’s system. Cayden Lee, who had 874 yards and two touchdowns a season ago, is back at receiver and is joined by Penn State transfer Harrison Wallace and Oklahoma State transfer De’Zhaun Stribling to form a formidable trio.
The defense is littered with transfers, with seven of the projected eleven starters being newcomers. Linebacker Suntarine Perkins will lead the group, which together could work out very well or very poorly. The non-conference schedule does include a game against Tulane, one of the strongest G5 schools, but the rest of the schedule is a list of free wins. The two toughest road games are at Georgia, who the Rebels pounded a season ago, and look to be weaker on paper, and Oklahoma, who should be better but still was disappointing in 2024. They play LSU and South Carolina at home. I like Kiffin to gel this team of transfers together and to get them into the postseason.
8. Indiana Hoosiers
It is no secret that Indiana’s inclusion in the 2024 CFP was largely due to an extremely favorable schedule. This season should be tougher with road games against Oregon and Penn State on the schedule. My inclusion of the Hoosiers on this list banks on one thing: beating Oregon in Eugene. I know, it sounds crazy. Travelling across the country has proven to be tough for Big Ten teams, and Dan Lanning’s Ducks have been dominant thus far in conference play.
But this is a new Oregon team with much of last season’s production off to the NFL. Indiana returns a lot from Curt Cignetti’s 2024 playoff team, and quarterback Fernando Mendoza has a lot more experience than Oregon’s Dante Moore. Both teams get a bye the week before to prepare, but Oregon plays at Penn State the week before. The physicality of that game may be a lot to recover from. If the Hoosiers do beat Oregon and manage to squeak out wins at home against Illinois and on the road against Iowa, this team will be back in the playoffs.
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
I know what you’re thinking. The Indiana inclusion was crazy enough, but Nebraska? Are you sure we are talking about the same team? Yep, that Nebraska. The one that made their first bowl game since 2016 last year. Matt Rhule has a proven track record. He has made steady improvements each season at each school that he has been the head coach at. The Cornhuskers went 5-7 in his first season, then improved to 7-6 last season with a Pinstripe Bowl win. This year, the playoffs are in sight.
Quarterback Dylan Raiola showed flashes last year, but he was just a true freshman. After a full season in the program, he is due for a sophomore leap. He will be throwing to a proven NFL-caliber receiver in Kentucky transfer Dane Key, and gets a favorite target back in sophomore Jacory Barney Jr. The Cornhuskers’ defense has been the heart of the team the past two seasons, and it should remain so in 2025. Reinforcements have been brought in in the form of linebackers Dasan McCullough (Oklahoma) and Marques Henry-Trent (Georgia Southern).
The main reason I’m in on the Cornhuskers to make the playoffs is similar to Indiana’s 2024 run: the schedule. While there are quite a few toss-up games, most of them are at home. The only guaranteed loss is a road game against Penn State, similar to Indiana playing at Ohio State last season. The Huskers will have to take care of business against Michigan, Minnesota, USC, UCLA, and Iowa, which is quite doable. Again, this is Nebraska we are talking about, but I love what Rhule is doing with this program and believe in Raiola taking a big step up as a sophomore.
10. Auburn Tigers
Alright, the Nebraska pick was a longshot, but it made sense when explained. But Auburn? An SEC team that hasn’t eclipsed six wins since 2019? Readers, I hear your disgust, and even I will admit that this might be a slightly insane take. Hugh Freeze is on the hot seat, the Tigers have struggled in SEC play ever since the departure of Gus Malzahn, and the schedule isn’t even easy.
In comes transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold, who gives Auburn a level of talent that they have not seen at quarterback since Bo Nix. Yes, Arnold’s season at Oklahoma last year was a lot of ups and downs, with the downs probably outweighing the ups. We have seen highly-touted quarterbacks develop in the right situation, though, much like the aforementioned Nix. Quarterback coach Kent Austin helped develop Malik Willis at Liberty and is now tasked with helping Arnold take the next step.
Most vital to Arnold’s success is the group of receivers he will be throwing to. At Oklahoma last season, he had nobody with Nic Anderson, Deion Burks, Andrel Anthony, and Jalil Farooq on the shelf for the majority of the season. Now at Auburn, he has an extremely talented group between Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton Jr., Malcolm Simmons, and Perry Thompson. If Payton Thorne could throw for 21 touchdowns with all of these guys as freshmen, imagine what Auburn’s offensive ceiling is in 2025.
It will be a long road of tests, starting in Week 1 with Baylor, if Auburn is to make a playoff run. The game that’s circled is an October 11 home game against Georgia. Before this, Auburn plays Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. They can lose one of those if they can beat Georgia and flip the SEC hierarchy upside down. After that game, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Alabama still loom. 10-2 on the season likely gets the Tigers a playoff bid, and I think with a rejuvenated Jackson Arnold throwing to a top-five receiver room with Hugh Freeze at the helm, they can get it done. Even if they don’t have as big of a bounce-back season that results in a playoff berth, this Tigers team will be a threat to pull off upsets as the season goes on.
11. Kansas State Wildcats
It’s anybody’s guess as to how the Big 12 shakes out. Nobody saw Arizona State coming out of the conference as a two-loss team and nearly knocking off Texas in the playoffs, and nobody will likely see the conference champion rise up out of nowhere this season.
Kansas State had big expectations in 2024 but fell short at 9-4 with a late-season collapse. Quarterback Avery Johnson was inconsistent in his first year as a starter, but another season of experience should help with that. Leading receiver Jayce Brown is back, and a dynamic tight end duo of returner Garrett Oakley and five-star freshman Linkon Cure gives Johnson some strong targets. Throw in the dynamic Dylan Edwards on the ground, and the Wildcats’ offense should be electric.
The defense was inconsistent at times last year, and it could be again in 2025. With that being said, Kansas State dodges Arizona State and BYU in the regular season. The non-conference schedule is easy, with the highlight being a home game against Army.
We should find out instantly just how far this team can go, as they kick off the college football season in Week 0 against Iowa State in Ireland. After that, it feels like four straight weeks of tune-up games before playing at Baylor on October 4. Road games against Kansas and Utah could prove tough, but this team is a solid bet to come out of the Big 12 in 2025.
12. Tulane Green Wave
Jon Sumrall’s first season at the helm at Tulane went alright, as the Green Wave went 9-4, but finished 0-3 in their last three games. After an offseason of returning, they are set to compete again in 2025. Quarterback Kadin Semonza, last with Ball State, is the frontrunner for the job. He brings experience and talent, needed for success at the G5 level. He threw for 2,905 yards and 25 touchdowns a year ago.
Sumrall did not back down from building a tough schedule, a key proponent in fighting for a playoff spot as a Group of 5 team. Tulane plays three Power Four teams – Northwestern, Duke, and Ole Miss – while heading on the road to South Alabama, which was a competitive team a season ago. Playing at Ole Miss is a likely loss, but home games against Northwestern and Duke are winnable. If they can get those jobs done, Tulane will instantly emerge as the frontrunner G5 team due to the strength of schedule.
From there, they’ll just have to clean up a relatively tough AAC schedule that includes games against Army, Memphis, and Florida Atlantic. The G5 race was never much of a race last season as Boise State led the way from the jump. It will be interesting this year, but Tulane has a shot to take an early lead with a manageable but challenging non-conference schedule.
Just Missed Out
- Utah
- Iowa State
- South Carolina
- Georgia
- Oregon
- Florida
- LSU
