RADIO
Jens Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Truist Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Keith Mitchell took a commanding lead after the first round, carding a bogey-free 9-under 61. He remains at the top of the leaderboard, leading by one stroke as we head into the weekend. After two rounds, Mitchell is at 12-under, with Shane Lowry following closely at 11-under. Sepp Straka is in third at 10-under, while six other players are tied for fourth at 7-under. The top half of the leaderboard is closely packed, separated by only a few strokes, setting the stage for an exciting weekend ahead.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The forecast for tomorrow indicates significantly windier conditions than what we saw in the first two rounds. In the first round, the course played over three strokes easier than in the second round. Given the expected conditions, Round 3 could end up playing even tougher than the +0.04 average score today.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Rory McIlroy has been excellent off the tee in the first two rounds, but hasn't flashed the usual approach game we're used to seeing from him. In Round 1, he gained 1.53 strokes off the tee, but lost 1.46 strokes on approach. We saw a similar round from Rory today, gaining 1.22 strokes off the tee but losing 0.45 strokes on approach. The flat stick has been working for Rory in both rounds, and he gained 1.57 strokes putting in Round 1 and 2.79 strokes putting in Round 2. I'm taking my chances on Rory's long drives and shorter approach shots carrying him through the windy conditions expected tomorrow.
Highlights from @McIlroyRory's second round at The Philadelphia Cricket Club.#TruistChampionshippic.twitter.com/oA6ghEoa1b
— Truist Championship (@TruistChamp) May 9, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners was cruising in Round 2 until his last three holes, going double-bogey, bogey, bogey on 16, 17, and 18 to finish 1-over. In Round 1, he gained 1.50 strokes on approach and 1.28 strokes tee to green, and then followed that up in Round 2 by gaining 0.28 strokes on approach but losing an abysmal 2.23 strokes tee to green. The good news is that Conners has gained strokes on approach in both rounds, and I'm riding his approach game in Round 3.
Other Options: Patrick Cantlay, Sepp Straka
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Keegan Bradley started strong and dropped eight birdies in the first round on his way to a 6-under 64. His only blemish was a double-bogey on the Par-3 16th hole. He had a solid round going today and remained bogey-free through 10 holes, but he then bogeyed the 11th hole and closed his second round with a double-bogey on 17 and a bogey on 18, finishing 2-over. However, Bradley has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in both rounds. He gained 1.11 strokes off the tee and 1.23 strokes on approach in Round 1 and gained 0.11 strokes off the tee and gained 0.26 strokes on approach in Round 2. The flat stick ultimately let him down in Round 2, losing 3.83 strokes putting. If Keegan can maintain his consistency off the tee and on approach, he should have plenty of birdie looks. Let's just hope he brings his good putter.
Other Options: Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy
Perfect speed, Shane. 😅#TruistChampionship pic.twitter.com/0cCxVxxNKW
— Truist Championship (@TruistChamp) May 9, 2025
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Si Woo Kim has played nothing other than steady golf in his first two rounds. He dropped five birdies and no bogeys in the first round and only had two bogeys in the second round. Kim has been excellent on approach in both rounds, gaining 1.14 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 1.65 strokes on approach in Round 2. On top of that, he has gained strokes tee to green in both rounds. He gained 1.72 strokes tee to green in Round 1 and gained 4.46 strokes tee to green in Round 2. Similar to Bradley, Kim lost 2.42 strokes with the flat stick in Round 2, but he still managed to card a 2-under 68. I'm riding on Kim's tee to green play and hoping he finds his rhythm on the greens tomorrow.
Other Options: Sam Stevens, Taylor Pendrith, Rickie Fowler, Stephan Jaeger
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Alex Noren is playing in his first tournament since he sustained a glute/hamstring injury back in January. He's played like he hasn't missed a beat in the first two rounds, carding a 3-under 67 in Round 1 and a 2-under 68 in Round 2. Noren has lost strokes on approach in both rounds, but has still found a way to drop birdies and stay in contention. He's been great off the tee in both rounds, gaining 0.60 strokes off the tee in Round 1 and 0.23 strokes off the tee in Round 2. Off the tee play has proved paramount this week, and I'm betting on Noren to keep finding fairways and birdie opportunities.
Other Options: Nick Taylor, Gary Woodland, Cameron Young, Max Homa
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Garrick Higgo has been all over the place in the first two rounds, but still managed to find himself at 2-under. In Round 1, he lost 1.36 strokes off the tee, but gained 1.18 strokes on approach, and then in Round 2, he completely flipped and gained 0.26 strokes off the tee, but lost 1.99 strokes on approach. Despite his volatile play, he's still managed to drop seven birdies, and that is exactly what we want in this section of the article.
Pedal to the metal.
At 12-under after the first two rounds, @K_m_Mitchell has a chance to claim his second victory on the PGA TOUR.#TruistChampionship pic.twitter.com/bBjntX1v6b
— Truist Championship (@TruistChamp) May 9, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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