RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
The morning wave produced slightly higher scores than the afternoon wave today, as the winds calmed more than expected. One thing to note about the weather is its unpredictability. However, it looks like we will likely encounter windier conditions in the morning wave tomorrow, so I plan to focus on golfers teeing off in the afternoon wave. Keith Mitchell initially held a commanding lead at 6 under but finished by bogeying his last two holes, dropping him to 4 under. He is now tied for the lead with Jacob Bridgeman, Stephan Jaeger, Ricky Castillo, and Sami Valimaki.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather forecast for tomorrow shows it will be breezier in the morning than in the afternoon, which is why most golfers I'll be focusing on will tee off in the afternoon.
Round 2 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
“Play it as it lies” would have been problematic on this one… pic.twitter.com/5Fsr9eJEp7
— Valspar Championship (@ValsparChamp) March 20, 2025
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele is still recovering from the rib injury that caused him to miss the beginning of the season. However, it's worth noting that he played well today despite the conditions. He gained 0.88 strokes on approach and 0.96 strokes off the tee. In showdown contests, our focus is solely on the upcoming round, and today, Schaufelle demonstrated that he can put himself in positions to make birdies off the tee.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Sepp Straka had an unusual struggle with his approach play in Round 1, losing 0.16 strokes, which is not typical for him. However, he excelled off the tee, gaining 1.16 strokes. While Straka positioned himself well throughout the round, he couldn’t execute his approach shots like we've come to expect. Nonetheless, he'll bring it with the flat stick and will likely create opportunities by being aggressive with his approach game.
Other Options: Sam Burns
Ever been ridiculed during a round for spending “too much time in the sand?” Well, we don’t believe in that here - we love the beach 🏖️
Watch the @PGATOUR pros hit the “hardest shot in golf” in the Sand Shot Shootout hosted by @StAndreGolf pic.twitter.com/xt2MiGR0nH
— Valspar Championship (@ValsparChamp) March 20, 2025
$8,000+
Favorite Play: As I mentioned earlier, Keith Mitchell was on track for a 6-under par 65, but he bogeyed his final two holes. Mitchell performed EXCEPTIONALLY well with his approach shots and putting today, gaining 2.46 strokes on approach and 2.42 strokes on the greens. Most importantly, he gained 1.77 strokes off the tee and tees off in the afternoon wave tomorrow. "Cashmere" Keith has his game finely tuned; aside from a couple of minor hiccups today, all signs indicate that he will be near the top of the leaderboard as we head into the weekend.
Other Options: Stephan Jaeger
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Jacob Bridgeman was EXCEPTIONAL with his putting today, gaining 5.80 strokes on the putting. He has been on the top of his game with the flat stick, and he did this by being just good enough with his approach shots and off-the-tee play. This level of play with the flat stick isn't unusual for Bridgeman; he hasn't been outstanding off the tee or on approach, but he's done just enough to give himself chances to stay in it. Given his current form with the flat stick, I plan to ride the hot hand.
Other Options: Thomas Detry, Jhonattan Vegas, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Ryan Fox was OUTSTANDING today, gaining 4.95 strokes on approach shots, despite losing 2.30 strokes on putting. He managed to shoot a 3-under 68. He gained 0.91 strokes off the tee, and most notably, he gained 6.90 strokes from tee to green. Fox excelled in every category except for putting, and I plan to include him in most of my lineups. Additionally, he will be teeing off in the afternoon.
Other Options: Mac Meissner, Thorbjorn Olesen
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Rico Hoey has been HITTING THE COVER OFF THE BALL in his last two starts, gaining 1.25 strokes on approach and 2.82 strokes tee to green in Round 1, today. However, performance with the flat stick held him back, as he lost 2.22 strokes on the greens. He could be a low-owned player who might go low well tomorrow. Additionally, it's worth noting that he tees off in the afternoon wave.
Thanks for joining us, Coach Gruden! #ValsparChampionship https://t.co/nNKA0MyDU2
— Valspar Championship (@ValsparChamp) March 21, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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