RADIO
It's NBA Offseason time! While there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here) we still need to take some time to reflect on the 2020-2021 season. We have another short NBA offseason this year and it's already time to do some evaluation on another unique season as we prepare for the 2022 campaign.
When it comes down to facing a fantasy draft, two numbers are often the most sought after by fantasy GMs: current ADP and overall rank from the prior season. No matter how experienced fantasy players are, those two numbers are thought of as the ultimate all-encompassing representations of every fantasy player's value. Knowing what he did in the league the last year and where he is getting drafted this season should be more than enough to make a reasonably good projection going forward, isn't it?
Turns out, those two numbers can be way misleading. Today, I'm here to focus on last season's stats from players labeled as Centers in order to assess whether those numbers should be seen as real and solid going forward, or just as outliers with slim chances to be there when all is said and done by the end of the 2021-22 season. Let's get to it!
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Real Fantasy Basketball Numbers - Centers
Robert Williams III, C - Boston Celtics
The Time Lord has probably arrived for good, folks. Robert Williams is coming off his third year as a pro, and he hasn't stopped improving since he entered the L back in 2019. That's more than enough to make me consider Williams a very serious player going forward and one in whose numbers we should believe--yes, even with Al Horford and Enes Kanter back in Beantown.
Williams--he's just 23, by the way--finished last season with a low 8-7-2 average per-game line. That sucks, right? Wrong. On a per-100 possession basis, Williams' line was a strong 20-18-4. Yes, 20-18 in the points and boards department. Do you know how many center-eligible players did that? Five including Ro-Will.Williams reached those gaudy numbers shooting an impossibly great 72.1% from the floor only bested by DeAndre Jordan while hitting 61.6% of his freebies.
Williams is still super young, and that should be the only thing keeping him from featuring heavily for the Celtics as soon as this upcoming season. Horford and Kanter are great veterans, of course, but Williams is the future and he's here to stay.
Deandre Ayton, C - Phoenix Suns
Not a lot left to say about Ayton. Both the Suns and Ayton had to endure some criticism after the 2018 draft--that of Luka and Trae--as spending a no. 1 pick in an old-school center didn't look too smart. Welp, haters ate that L big time. Ayton's postseason debut was fantastic and he truly helped the Suns reach an improbable Finals just a few weeks ago. But his regular season, on a much larger timespan and bigger sample, is what proved Ayton's value for real.
Ayton was one of only nine centers to close 2021 with a double-double on points and rebounds, and the youngest--along with Jarrett Allen, 22 years old each--to do so. Ayton's PPG actually went down almost four points and his RPG mark dropped a full board too, but that's no problem as he countered by raising his field goal percentage to a magnificent 62.6% and eFG% to a bonkers 62.9%.
Ayton finished 2021 on the right side of most--if not all--advanced metrics, which finally saw him as a positive offensive and defensive player. He will keep growing and the fact that Chris Paul will be back in 'Zona will only help his outcomes nightly.
Jakob Poeltl, C - San Antonio Spurs
Under-the-radar, sneaky pick for the Real Performers 3x3 squad at the center position. Poeltl won't be on most fantasy GMs must-draft sheets, but he could very well be worth a reasonably high pick--to this man's talents extent, don't get too crazy. San Antonio is entering 2022 without his two best players from years past: DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, not to mention the exits of other vets in Rudy Gay, Patty Mills, and Gorgui Dieng. The rebuild is in full gear, that's what all of this means.
Poeltl's 2021 campaign was rather nice and he got to start more games than even before, playing 69 and getting to the staring five 51 of those times. The minutes went absolutely up for Poeltl, going from an average of 17 MPG in the prior three seasons to a healthy 26 in 2021. The per-game line, while still at a low 8-8-2, was fantastic given Poeltl's underlying numbers: 13% Usage Rate, 6.2 FGA, and a below-average pace of 99.8 possessions.
Even in such a negative context, Poeltl was more than good and performed to beat the expectations. He grabbed 14.3% of the boards available in his playing time and dished out 9.6% of the Spurs assists in those minutes too. Add a super-low turnover average (1.2 TOV), a mighty-high True Shooting of 61.2%, and his impossible 1.8 BPG, and Poeltl should have everything to keep things up next season becoming a great low-price fantasy play.
Fake Fantasy Basketball Numbers - Centers
Mason Plumlee, C - Detroit Pistons (now Charlotte Hornets)
I love Plumlee, and I think he didn't get enough love as a true stud at the position in 2021. The problem I have with rostering Plumlee next season is definitely his move from Detroit to Charlotte. That means that while I don't see Plumlee's 2021 numbers as truly fake, they are just going to look like that when the next season tips off and we see Plumlee in a much more crowded roster.
Plumlee was fantastic for the Pistons putting up nearly a 10-9-3-1-1 per-game line on a rather low 16.3% Usage Rate. That usage won't improve in Charlotte, just count on that, so the scoring chances won't really be on the rise. Sure, playing along with LaMelo Ball at the point should hand him easy chances because of the point guard's vision, but that's probably not going to be a game-changing thing for Mason.
Plumlee is an eight-year vet coming off a career season. Hard to believe he's about to explode at age 31... The center put up his highest points, rebounds, and assists per-game marks, shot 61.4% attempting two more FGA per game, and scored 66.9% of his freebies (he hadn't topped 56.1% in the prior four years). Playing in Detroit's depleted team definitely helped his numbers, and it all looked more like an outlier year at an old age rather than a coming of age from the vet.
Robin Lopez, C - Washington Wizards (now Orlando Magic)
With Thomas Bryant available for just 10 games before getting injured and shut down for the year, all the Wiz had to play at the center position were a bunch of middling players: Robin Lopez, Alex Len, and Daniel Gafford. It was the 33-year-old Lopez who ended playing the most games (71) and minutes (19.1 MPG) while putting up a 9-4-1 per-game line. Those numbers aren't gaudy, but there weren't that bad for his price.
If you're looking for a fantasy bargain come next season, though, you'd rather look elsewhere. Lopez is now in Orlando facing stiff-as-hell competition at the position. That's bad. What is worse, though, is the fact that Lopez's 2021 season came absolutely out of left field. Somehow, Lopez nearly broke the 22 points-per-100-poss mark for the first time since he did so in 2013 while playing for the Hornets. He also posted his highest rebounding number on that basis since 2017 and stole more rocks than ever since the aforementioned 2013 campaign.
I have issues with Plumlee going forward (read above), but I have it very clear in my mind that banking on RoLo for the 2022 fantasy season would be borderline malpractice. Don't trust this bet and gamble on high-upside teammates such as Mo Bamba or Wendell Carter Jr.
Kevon Looney, PF/C - Golden State Warriors
As ridiculous as it sounds, Looney experienced the third-highest increase in FG% among center-eligible players comparing his 2020 average to that of 2021. Looney had a horrendous year in 2020 shooting 36.7% from the floor but raised that mark to a healthy 54.8% last season. He also hit 64%+ of his free-throw attempts and got to post a nice 8-10-3 line on a per-36-minute basis.
In the same vein as with the two players highlighted above, Looney was only good-not-great for a bargain, and that is sadly going to get worse come 2022. The Warriors should be healthy and reload throughout the summer with the completion of some very important players' rehabs.
Advanced metrics don't love Looney, he can't stretch the floor, and whenever he's played to good levels that's mostly been because of his top-tier environment--which, in case you don't know, includes a very powerful performer in Steph Curry. Talk about an assist-booster. I'd fade the hell out of Looney this upcoming summer in fantasy drafts given his null upside going forward.
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