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Welcome back RotoBallers to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 5 Monday Night Football slate - Packers vs. Raiders! The 2023 NFL season is finally underway, and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play.
On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
Before diving into some solid fantasy score totals this week, we must first cover the PrizePicks scoring format. The format is PPR, which stands for "point per reception," meaning every reception is worth one point.
Rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points, and passing touchdowns are worth four points. Each rushing or receiving yard is worth .1, meaning every 10 yards of either is worth one point. Quarterback passing yards are worth .04, which means every 25 passing yards are worth one point.
If you ever have questions, you can always click the "scoring chart" option above the player selections for each contest. Now, let's get to some solid fantasy score props for this week.
NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 5 Monday Night Football
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Before diving into some solid prop totals this week, we must first cover the PrizePicks scoring format. The format is PPR, which stands for "point per reception," meaning every reception is worth one point. Rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points and passing touchdowns are worth four points.
Each rushing or receiving yard is worth .1, meaning every 10 yards of either is worth one point. Quarterback passing yards are worth .04, which means every 25 passing yards are worth one point. If you ever have questions, you can always click the "scoring chart" option above the player selections for each contest. Now, let's get to some solid props for this week.
Aaron Jones MORE than 50.5 rushing yards
This is more of a play against the Raiders defense than anything else. Thus far in 2023, the Raiders have allowed an average of 110.5 rushing yards per game to the running back position, which ranks eighth-worst in the league. They have also allowed an ugly 4.42 yards per carry to the position.
Aaron Jones has been hampered by a hamstring injury for most of 2023, but he eased himself back into the lineup on a short week last Thursday night and is expected to suit up and be ready to go for this one. If this is the case, and he is able to return to form while shouldering the load, it is not out of the question for him to carry the ball 15+ times and smash this prop. In 2022, he managed to eclipse this total in eight total games.
Jordan Love LESS than 234.5 passing yards
Here is an interesting question: Is the Raiders' pass defense actually good? While the answer to this is likely no, they have only allowed an average of 213 passing yards per game to the quarterback position, which ranks in the top 10 of the NFL. They have held three of the four quarterbacks they have faced under this total, including the likes of Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
Jordan Love has eclipsed this total in three of his first four games; however, two of those games came against the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, both of which rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game to the quarterback position. This could also be a game where the Packers look to establish the run against a porous run defense, which should cut into the opportunities for Love to eclipse this total.
Aaron Jones LESS than 17.5 receiving yards
We are going to list Aaron Jones again here as this is currently marked as the top play in this game on the PrizePicks Optimizer, giving it a 57.98% chance of success. Jones has hauled in just three catches this season and is likely to do more work on the ground against this Raiders defense.
The Raiders have allowed just 21 receptions for 121 receiving yards thus far in 2023. Neither of these stats screams that Jones will be heavily involved in the passing game. This prop is also priced at 15.5 -105 to the under across most books, so we are getting a solid edge here.
Other Recommendations: Josh Jacobs MORE than 72.5 rushing yards
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