6 years agoIn 2018, Paul Goldschmidt had a .290/.389/.533 slash line with 33 home runs and 83 RBI. While Goldschmidt's 2018 line was still strong, it was the third consecutive season that his OBP dropped and he was under double-digit stolen bases for the first time since 2014 as well. It also did not help that he had his worst run production (83 RBI and 95 runs scored) in a full season. Goldschmidt has taken a bit of a step back from his 1.005 OPS in 2015 and back-to-back 20 home run/20 stolen base seasons in 2015 and 2016. That being said, Goldschmidt still has a career .398 OBP, averages 31 home runs and 18 stolen bases per 162 games, and has played at least 155 games in five of the last six seasons. Looking at Goldschmidt's 2018 season, the clearest drop-off was with his soft hit ball rate, which was a career-worst 16.9%. He did have 25% line drives and a career-best 46.2% hard hit ball rate, but a boosted soft hit ball rate and a 25.1% strikeout rate are two potential worries. Still, the jump in line drive rate and hard hit ball rate led to a .359 BABIP that was his best since 2015, and he did post his seventh season of a .200+ isolated power in his eight big league seasons. He also hit just 38.6% of ground balls last season and, normally, hitting the ball hard in the air leads to good things! There is a very small chance that Goldschmidt slips past the second round of this spring's drafts and, with this move, I am bumping him up to the top 1B in baseball for next season. There are very few players that have the potential to put up 200 R+RBI, 70 extra base hits, and 20 stolen bases and, quite frankly, there are no 1B that match that profile. Goldy is as safe as it gets early in drafts, allowing for some risk deeper in drafts.--Chris Zolli