July 27, 2025

Kyle Busch used to be something of a master at the Brickyard 400 with back-to-back wins in 2015 and 2016, three straight poles from 2016-2018, and the most laps led in any Brickyard in 2016. However, at Richard Childress Racing, he has increasingly struggled at many of the tracks where he used to dominate and it's hard to imagine that changing today. Busch probably doesn't have the speed to win, so it seems likely he is going to be focus on maximizing points to close his 39-point deficit on Bubba Wallace for the final playoff spot. He may go on wild strategies to win stage points at the expense of a stronger finish. This suggests he likely will finish worse than his 12th-place starting position. As a result, he is a pretty poor DFS option, particularly since one could argue that at $8,100, he's overpriced.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

Josh Berry was the most crash-prone driver in his 2024 rookie season, and last year's Brickyard 400 was no exception as he finished 35th and his average running position of 29th was far below his usual standard for last year. Obviously, he has improved to some extent this year after switching from Stewart-Haas Racing to Team Penske's Wood Brothers satellite, but not necessarily by as much as you might think. After his somewhat hot start, he has not led a lap in the last ten races, he still crashes a lot, and his win at Las Vegas is looking more flukish in hindsight than it did at the time. Berry is a big question mark because he crashed in his only previous appearance and he also crashed on the opening lap of last year's Xfinity race. Since he has an above-average starting position of 17th and isn't likely to lead in this race, he probably isn't worth the risk.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

Although Austin Cindric had consistent speed on the superspeedways early this season (even the non-drafting ones), he has faded to his typical mediocrity in recent weeks and the onetime road race ace tumbled from 15th to 20th after back-to-back poor finishes at Chicago and Sonoma. Cindric has gotten his qualifying mojo back to some extent as his 10th place start today is his best on a non-drafting oval since Texas 11 races ago, but one has to assume either that Team Penske is mostly ignoring non-playoff tracks to focus on Phoenix or that the firing of Austin's father Tim Cindric has hurt his performance. Penske is less likely to treat Indianapolis as a throwaway race than many of the other summer tracks, so Cindric might run a little better than he has recently, but his recent slump and his high starting position suggest you shouldn't start him for DFS.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

Although Daniel Suárez finished eighth in last year's Brickyard 400, he only had an average running position of 21st so he wasn't very fast and only finished well because of the large numbers that crashed last year. With Connor Zilisch, yesterday's Xfinity Series winner at Indianapolis, expected to take over Suárez's No. 99 car next year, Trackhouse Racing has little invested in him, so you shouldn't expect much especially since he's lacked speed all season and is only starting 31st today. Suárez is starting poorly enough that he could gain a lot of points on attrition, particularly since Trackhouse does tend to be more successful at developing wilder strategies than other teams. Since he doesn't seem to have much speed anymore, only strategy and/or faster cars crashing out would significantly help him. You probably shouldn't start him when his superior teammate Ross Chastain is starting even worse--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

As he does at many tracks, Austin Dillon has a very mediocre record at Indianapolis, but he has been good at keeping his nose clean and getting slightly above average finishes despite never contending. After finishing 13th last year in his first Indy race with the new NextGen car, Dillon starts 20th today, his worst starting position here since 2017. Since he rarely has speed and has stagnated lately, he's unlikely to drive through the field on speed so he would have to likely count on attrition to get a decent finish this time as he did last year when he had an average running position of 19th. However, the fact that everybody now has a year's experience with the Next Gen chassis on this track unlike last year means it is likely that fewer cars will crash and that longshot options like Dillon won't be worth it.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

Michael McDowell starts 22nd in today's Brickyard 400. McDowell has actually been more consistent here than you might expect sa he has finished no worse than 18th on the oval since 2016, not to mention his win in the last race on the infield road course in 2023. His previous five starts all ame for Leavine Family Racing and Front Row Motorsports, but now he is driving for a Spire Motorsports team that seems to be faster as Carson Hocevar and Corey LaJoie both placed in the top fifteen in last year's race. While a top ten finish is probably unlikely, he should gain a handful of positions in the race based on his past history here, making him a middling selection for DFS play. There are plenty of better options elsewhere.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

Noah Gragson was one of the most significant beneficiaries of the heavy attrition due to numerous crashes in Stage 3 of his first Brickyard 400 last year. Although Gragson started 21st and only had an average running position of 16th, he ended up finishing 9th after several cars ahead of him crashed out. There likely won't be as much attrition this time since everyone has more experience at Indianapolis with the Next Gen car, so Gragson will probably finish worse than that even though he qualified better (18th). It doesn't help that he's arguably been more crash-prone than he was last year, including crashes in each of the last two weeks. He has only finished better than his starting position five times this season, which means he will probably thereby lose Place Differential points and isn't a good DFS selection.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

It's an all-Ty showdown in today's final round of NASCAR's laughably unfair In-Season Tournament. This tournament has been an excellent example of the perils of consistency in evaluating race performance as Dillon's first two opponents crashed out and then he pulled a bump and run on Alex Bowman at Sonoma, who had outrun him all race. Even in the first four rounds, he's only had an average finish of 16.25 and an average running position around 22nd, solid by his standards but not particularly extraordinary. Although he has upset the higher-seeded driver in every previous round, Ty Gibbs should still be favored to finish higher since he is far more talented, he's finished ahead of him in 12 out of 21 races including the last six non-drafting races, and the Toyotas are faster than the Chevies, but since bad luck can befall anyone, don't be shocked if Dillon wins the tournament, but even if he does, it won't mean much.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

In Justin Haley's first Brickyard 400 last year, he drove from 35th to 20th much like his then-teammate Cody Ware mainly because a lot of other drivers crashed probably because none of the drivers had past experience with the Next Gen car at Indianapolis. Although Haley has moved to Spire Motorsports, which is traditionally faster than Rick Ware Racing, Haley has performed probably worse since despite his faster cars, his 31st-place rank in the championship ties his career-worst points finish last year. Because his cars are a little faster, he qualified 28th but his teammates Carson Hocevar and Michael McDowell both outqualified him as they usually do. Haley still tends to finish where he starts more often than not, but he usually doesn't gain enough positions for him to be one of the top contenders for DFS.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 27, 2025

Cody Ware has only started one previous Brickyard 400 last year when he started 36th and finished 18th, but don't expect him to repeat the feat in today's race, even though his 34th place starting position is a little better this time. Not only did he receive two separate free passes, he significantly benefited from a string of several crashes in a row during Stage 3, which is not something you can likely count on again. The large number of crashes may have been in part a result of the Cup Series no longer racing on the oval from 2021 to 2023, but now that most of the drivers have a race of experience with the Next Gen car under their belt, there will likely be far less attrition, which means Ware will score far too few points to be viable for DFS play.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference

July 21, 2025

Kyle Larson, the No. 5 Chevrolet driver, finished fourth in Sunday's race at Dover Motor Speedway, the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Starting from the 25th position, Larson spent the race slowly making his way through the pack and towards the front of the pack. In the first stage, Larson went from 25th to the 10th position, being able to score one stage point at the end of the stage. In the second stage, Larson effectively utilized pit strategies and kept his car out of trouble, advancing to fifth by the end of the stage and earning additional stage points in the process. In the final stage, Larson first made it up to fourth before he fell back during a caution happening in the middle of a sequence of green flag pit stops on lap 337. Then, Larson went to pit again and then spent the rest of the race trying to make up ground, which he did until the race's final two restarts. Larson made it up as high as second, but then was passed by Chase Briscoe and his teammate Alex Bowman before the checkered flag waved, leaving him in fourth. Larson's finish of fourth is now a series-leading 13th top-10 finish for the 2025 season for the Hendrick Motorsports driver.--Sean Engel - RotoBaller
Source: NASCAR.com

July 21, 2025

Chase Elliott of Hendrick Motorsports was the dominant driver of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on Sunday, but could not lock in the win. Elliott began the race right from the front in first. Although he was passed by Chase Briscoe early on, Elliott took the lead back on lap 14 and never looked back as he went on to win the first stage of the race. In the second stage, Elliott continued to dominate and lead until he went to pit road around lap 185, but during his pit stop, Elliott's car fell off the jack, causing a slower pit stop and for him to lose the lead. Elliott spent the rest of the second stage making up ground on the track and made it to fourth by the end of the stage, gathering more stage points. In the final stage, Elliott returned to the lead through pit stops and got ahead of Denny Hamlin. Elliott maintained the lead and dominated until another green flag pit road sequence was interrupted by a caution on lap 337. Elliott then fell back to third through more pit stops and could not get back to the lead for the rest of the race. Elliott's car ran on older tires compared to some of the other drivers, lost speed, and faded back to sixth by the time the checkered flag rolled. Despite missing a victory even though he was dominant for most of the race, Elliott now has the regular-season points lead after this week's race at Dover.--Sean Engel - RotoBaller
Source: NASCAR.com

July 21, 2025

Hendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman proved once again that Dover Motor Speedway is a great track for him as he finished third during Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Bowman started this race from the 16th position, but during the first stage, he progressively made it up through the field and finished the stage in fifth, earning stage points. In the second stage, Bowman kept his speed up as even through pit stops, and he still ended up having one of the fastest cars. By the end of the stage, he overtook Denny Hamlin to finish second at the stage break, collecting even more stage points. In the final stage, Bowman kept pace inside the top five for most of the stage, even through pit stops, as there were a couple of cautions in the stage that had teams adjust their pit strategies. Even when Bowman briefly fell out of the top five towards the end, he still had a fast enough car to drive back into one of the top positions, and he did just that as he placed third at the checkered flag. Bowman earned his seventh top-10 finish of his Cup career at Dover, including his fifth-straight, and now has a gap of 63 points above the playoff cut line.--Sean Engel - RotoBaller
Source: NASCAR.com

July 21, 2025

William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports held a consistent performance during Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway, until the very end of the race. Byron started the race from the fifth position, but held plenty of speed right from the beginning of the race. The No. 24 Chevrolet driver slowly worked up to as high as the third position behind Christopher Bell and his teammate Chase Elliott during the first stage. Just before the end of the stage, Byron got passed by Denny Hamlin, leaving him to settle for fourth at the end of the stage, but he was still able to score stage points. In the second stage, Byron continued to run inside the top five for most of the stage and even through pit stops. By the end of the stage, he was passed by his teammates Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson, settling for sixth at the end of the stage. In the final stage, Byron continued to compete for a top-5 finish, battling with others like Chase Briscoe until he fell a lap down during a sequence of green flag pit stops. Thanks to a caution on lap 337, Byron made it back to the lead lap and kept himself in contention until lap 393 when Bell spun his car in front of the field. Everyone tried to check up and move around the track to avoid Bell, including Byron, but he got clipped by Noah Gragson and slammed into the inside wall. Byron was unable to continue due to excessive damage and was scored with a finish of 32nd. This marks the second consecutive race that Byron failed to finish at Dover due to a crash, and he also lost the regular season points lead to his teammate, Elliott, as Byron now sits second in the standings.--Sean Engel - RotoBaller
Source: NASCAR.com

July 21, 2025

Chase Briscoe had a run reminiscent of vintage Ryan Newman in the 2000s at Dover, where he started second after being awarded a second-place starting position after qualifying was canceled before slowly fading to the back and reemerging late, finishing right where he started. Although he rarely fell outside the top ten, he spent most of the race in the back half of it before he elected to take tires on a late caution while his teammate Denny Hamlin stayed out. Briscoe drove all the way up to second thanks to several cautions and a fortuitous bump from Alex Bowman on one restart, but he was unable to pass Hamlin even though Hamlin was on older tires. Briscoe's run was solid albeit not quite as strong as it looked on paper as he was the slowest Joe Gibbs Racing driver most of the day. He remains eighth in points, 132 points behind Chase Elliott.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference